After a 20-day pause, NHL teams will get back in action Wednesday. While no regular season game will match the excitement of the gold medal matchup between Canada and the USA, the stretch run should be very interesting, and there are some important betting strategies and angles bettors should consider coming out of the Olympic break.
There was some downside to the tournament, as big names such as Sidney Crosby, Kevin Fiala, and Mikko Rantanen suffered injuries of varied severity. While some teams’ and skaters’ outlooks may have worsened since the schedule paused on February 5th, the time off could prove to be a blessing for others.
In this article, we’ll touch on a pair of intriguing betting angles coming out of the Olympic break, and tie those thoughts into a pair of best bets for the initial post-tournament NHL slate on Wednesday.
Angle: Will Some Individual Skaters Be Rejuvenated Following the Layoff?
Best Bet: Pierre-Luc Dubois to Record a Point -105 vs. Philadelphia (bet365)
Pierre-Luc Dubois to record a point vs. Flyers
This may appear to be a surprising way to lead off an article summarizing some of the most pertinent betting angles coming out of the Olympic break. Dubois is not a huge name, and more of the talk will be surrounding topics such as the severity of Crosby’s injury, if Hart Trophy favourite Nathan MacKinnon is fully healthy.
However, online sportsbooks have generally made their adjustments to the more obvious angles, such as Kevin Fiala’s season-ending injury. When Fiala first went down in the Olympics, the Kings were priced at +200 to miss the playoffs, a bet that I immediately posted to my Action Network profile and has since come down to +180.
I’m not noting this to try and pat myself on the back; a ton of people immediately knew Fiala’s loss was impactful in the betting markets. That’s why something flying more under the radar, like skaters who may be poised to elevate their level of play, could provide greater value to sports bettors.
There are other skaters in a similar boat to Dubois, but he appears to be the fairly ideal example of the point I’m trying to make, and it’s excellent that there is a good bet involving Dubois on the first slate following the break. By outlining my case thought process for Dubois, in specific, readers may also have some skaters of their own mind.
Dubois had a terrific 2024-25 season and probably didn’t garner enough credit for helping the Washington Capitals overachieve with an Eastern Conference-leading total of 111 points. His 47-game absence due to an abdominal surgery is a key reason the Capitals will now need to go on quite a run in order to return to the playoffs.
Dubois returned to the lineup in the Capitals’ final game before the break, recording a goal and an assist across 17:35 of ice time.
Though Dubois was effective in his return to play, he didn’t rest on the laurels of that performance in assuming that he was fully up to speed. While the majority of NHL skaters spend the layoff on a beach somewhere enjoying a deserved break, Dubois was on the ice working with skills coach Adam Oates, jumping at the opportunity to gain an edge and get himself fully right.
Dubois is expected to skate on the Capitals’ top line Wednesday alongside Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson (Hendrix Lapierre served as a placeholder at Friday’s practice). He’s well- situated for a big finish to the year, and at -105, there looks to be value betting into that idea Wednesday night.
Angle: Confirmed Lineup Notes, and Potential Volatility Immediately Following the Break
Best Bet: Seattle Kraken Moneyline vs Dallas Stars +150 (bet365)
Kraken moneyline
Another important angle to watch will be the availability of skaters, potential fatigue, and/or injury statuses coming out of the break.
The Dallas Stars offer a number of questions in each of those regards, and for that, this best bet is my ideal way to outline this talking point.
We could see some the first handful of slates look a little wonky coming out of the break, and if things are a little volatile, laying huge numbers with teams such as the Stars may not prove to be overly wise.
Elliotte Friedman reported that Rantanen is likely to miss some time after he sat out the bronze medal game Saturday, which is obviously the most significant concern for the team currently.
This second point is slightly less pertinent to the Stars than other teams, but the window between travelling home from Milan and playing on Wednesday is quite tight for skaters from the Canadian and American rosters, and they’ll obviously be dealing with some notable jet lag.
On top of the strenuous travelling situations, skaters that played a key role for their sides in the Olympics could be a little fatigued, having just competed in games featuring playoff-level intensity.
All three of the Stars’ top defenders, Thomas Harley, Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, played huge minutes throughout the tournament, and if those three aren’t at their best, the team becomes drastically less formidable, while Rantanen’s loss is obviously highly significant as well.
Even if we include Oscar Fisker Molgaard, who had a strong showing at the Olympics for Denmark but has spent most of the year in the AHL, Seattle had four skaters at the Olympics. Eeli Tolvanen and Kappo Kakko had strong tournaments for Finland, while Philipp Grubauer was Team Germany’s number-one option in goal.
Comparatively, the potential fatigue is less notable for skaters than for the Stars. Joey Daccord is a competent option in goal and may still prove to be the team’s top option down the stretch, while Tolvanen and Kakko are still typically used on the second and third lines.
Rust may factor into the initial games out of the break, but most teams did start skating together again early last week. A little bit of rust and lack of timing may prove to be less influential on the outcomes of games than having numerous superstars dealing with jet lag and fatigue.
My ultimate point here is to be careful in paying attention to lineup notes and expecting teams to immediately look just as they did prior to the break.
Though the Stars are on a six-game winning streak and are 16-7-3 on home ice this season, I’m not sure if they are well-situated to pick up right where they left off. This is a meaningful game for the Kraken, who are right in the thick of the playoff race, and at +150, we seem to be getting a long enough number to bet on the potential of a letdown performance from the Stars in a spot that seems quite volatile.
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