The 2026 MLB season brings fresh intrigue to the AL West, where powerhouse teams chase division titles and rebuilders eye futures markets. With rosters reshaped by free agency and spring training buzz building, win total over/unders offer sharp value for bettors analyzing projections. We’ll dive into each team’s 2026 MLB season win total odds, key roster moves, and data-driven picks and projections to help you beat the online sportsbooks.
Related: AL East season win total picks, AL Central season win total picks, AL West season win total picks
Seattle Mariners (over/under 89.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 88.1 wins
PECOTA projection: 94.1 wins
The Mariners are largely returning the same roster that posted 90 wins in 2025 and went on a deep postseason run to the ALCS. Most importantly, they re-signed Canadian slugger Josh Naylor to a five-year deal over the winter while also bringing in versatile infielder Brendan Donovan and reliever Jose Ferrer. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and second baseman Jorge Polanco were lost via free agency, but this team should still be able to score enough runs to remain the favourite to win the division in 2026.
Seattle boasts a tremendous starting pitching staff led by George Kirby and Bryan Woo, and its high-leverage reliever tandem of Andres Munoz and Matt Brash is among the best in baseball. Mariners pitchers ranked in the top half of the league in nearly every statistical category last season, boasting the fifth-best WHIP (1.22) in all of baseball.
Pick: Under 89.5 wins (+100)
It’s unrealistic to expect Cal Raleigh to replicate his monstrous power numbers from a year ago, when he belted 60 home runs and drove in 125 runs, and the losses of Suarez and Polanco will also hurt Seattle’s ability to score runs. Yes, the pitching staff should help this team win enough games to claim the division title, but it’ll be tough for Seattle to eclipse 90 wins without a trade to upgrade the offence or a surprise breakout performer on the current roster.
Mariners under 89.5 wins
Houston Astros (over/under 86.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 80.2 wins
PECOTA projection: 84.8 wins
Everyone keeps waiting for the Astros to fall off and begin a retooling or rebuilding phase, but they surprised again in 2025, putting up 87 wins to fall just outside of the playoff picture. It was a relatively quiet offseason for the Astros, who most notably signed Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai to replace Framber Valdez in their starting rotation. Other than that, they made a few minor moves to bring in outfielder Joey Loperfido from Toronto and infielder Nick Allen from Atlanta.
Shortstop Jeremy Pena (finger) and closer Josh Hader (biceps) are already dealing with injuries this spring, which isn’t a good sign heading into the new season. Both of those key players will need to once again have strong seasons if Houston is to contend for a playoff spot and match its 87 wins from a year ago.
Pick: Under 86.5 wins (-130)
Houston is really banking on its core of aging veteran players, most notably Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, to keep this team afloat. The early injury concerns seem like a bad omen, and both of our respected projection systems believe 87 wins isn’t on the table this year. Back the under 86.5 wins, as this team looks more like a .500 club than a playoff contender.
Texas Rangers (over/under 83.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 80.7 wins
PECOTA projection: 84.1 wins
The Rangers had a very busy offseason overhauling their roster. Out are second baseman Marcus Semien and outfielder Adolis Garcia, and in are starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore and outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Gore’s addition will surely help bolster the starting rotation, which consists of a good mix of veteran and young talent. Remember, Gore was a serious contender for the NL Cy Young Award about midway through last season before falling off a bit, making him one of the more underrated offseason pickups in the majors this winter.
Texas will be looking for its young outfielder tandem of Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter to finally take a big step forward, and if that happens, this club can contend for a playoff spot, especially if veteran shortstop Corey Seager and right-hander Jacob deGrom can stay healthy and be major contributors.
Pick: Over 83.5 wins (-110)
A .500 team with 81 wins a year ago, the revamped Rangers are in a position to take a step forward closer to around 85 wins. Their starting pitching staff consisting of deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Gore, Jack Leiter, and Kumar Rocker is very underrated, and there’s enough pop in this lineup to rank at least around the league average offensively. Some offseason tweaks made to the bullpen should also help accelerate the win total from a year ago.
Rangers over 83.5 wins
Athletics (over/under 75.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 78.7 wins
PECOTA projection: 76.4 wins
The Athletics are once again in limbo while they wait for their new home in Las Vegas to be built, but the on-field product should continue to improve again this season. They boast some of the most intriguing talent in the majors in first baseman Nick Kurtz and shortstop Jacob Wilson and have proven historically that they thrive as the perennial underdog each season.
The low-budget Athletics, who posted 76 wins in 2025, had a quiet offseason, bringing in infielder Jeff McNeil and reliever Jose Leclerc while saying goodbye to pitcher Sean Newcomb and outfielder JJ Bleyday. That’s not a bad thing, though, for a team that heavily relies on internal development to remain competitive.
Pick: Over 75.5 wins (-110)
Both projection systems are keen on the Athletics eclipsing their season win total of 75.5, and there should be enough internal development to propel them slightly closer to 80 wins in 2026.
Los Angeles Angels (over/under 70.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 72.3 wins
PECOTA projection: 67.1 wins
It should be another frustrating season for the Angels, who will be hard-pressed to improve on their 72 wins from a year ago.
Their biggest offseason move included acquiring pitcher Grayson Rodriguez from Baltimore in a deal that saw slugger Taylor Ward go back the other way. It’s a risky move considering Rodriguez missed all of the 2025 season due to elbow and lat injuries, but the Angels have been desperate to improve their underwhelming rotation for the past several seasons. Several other lower-profile moves were made in an attempt to reshuffle the deck, particularly in the bullpen, but this team still doesn’t look any better on paper than a year ago, and Mike Trout isn’t getting any younger at the age of 34.
Pick: Under 70.5 wins (-105)
The rebuild is on as this team now rallies behind Jo Adell and Zach Neto, but it’s going to take a few more years of suffering before the Angels are competitive again. What a waste of Trout’s illustrious baseball career.