NHL Odds, News & Best Bets For Hockey Day In Canada (January 17)

In this article, I’ll break down my two best bets from Saturday’s hefty 13-game NHL slate based on Friday’s opening prices at online sportsbooks. All seven Canadian NHL teams will be in action on Saturday’s Hockey Day in Canada card, including a trio of exciting all Canadian matchups.

Please keep in mind this guide was written Friday afternoon, which means there could be some lineup and odds changes leading up to these matchups we touch on.

NHL Best Bets For January 17

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Winnipeg Jets—Over 5.5 Goals: -120

There are some arguments that this could be a tight-checking, lower-scoring affair. Both Craig Berube and Scott Arniel are known for preaching defensive accountability first, and worrying about generating offence second. Still, these two sides have too consistently strayed away from that type of play recently for me to understand an opening total of 5.5 here, in an era where 5.5’s have become fairly rare.

Hopefully, the opening total of 5.5 holds long enough for many bettors to lock in bets on the over, and if I were interested in backing the under, I would wait until closer to puck-drop, because it seems likely that the total will move to 6 by game-time.

The Maple Leafs have been sharper defensively of late relative to earlier in the year, but at best are still only an average defensive side. It’s a point that is easier to argue following the Leafs’ defensive meltdown in a high-profile game on Thursday in Vegas, in which they allowed the Knights to score three goals in the third period, even after a late game-tying goal came off the board after an offside review.

In 11 games since the holiday break, the Leafs have allowed 3.61 xGA/60 and 31.13 shots against per 60. There will always be a certain portion of observers who believe those metrics are meaningless, but despite the fact that Toronto ranks 11th in save percentage in that span, it has still allowed 3.09 actual goals per game.

The Maple Leafs have been exceptional offensively in that span, though, having scored 3.91 goals per game. Their team shooting percentage of 14.44% during that span is due to regress, but there are still a number of positives from an offensive perspective that we have seen from Toronto recently that could be sustainable.

The power play has succeeded on 33.3% of opportunities in 11 games since the break, and there’s obviously been a noteworthy change on that front with former assistant coach Marc Savard, who oversaw the power play, relieved of his duties.

Mitch Marner’s loss hurts, but there was still far more than enough talent left on the top unit for the level of success we saw earlier on in the season to be acceptable. The team has moved away from what had become a highly predictable 1-3-1 setup and has offered a wider range of in-zone options, while also showing improvements in terms of zone entries.

The Jets have been on fire offensively since snapping their 11-game losing skid, with 20 goals over the last four games, which have come versus a much better than average slate of opponents from a defensive perspective.

Winnipeg will always be highly reliant on its elite top power-play unit, and dynamic duo of Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele to do damage at even strength. But its offensive balance currently looks more reasonable now that Gabriel Vilardi has been shifted to the second line alongside Jonathan Toews and Cole Perfetti, and the three have combined for 16 points over the last five games.

The Jets do not look nearly as dominant defensively this season, however, a point that has been particularly clear because Connor Hellebuyck’s level of play has also dropped off significantly compared to last season. Over the last 10 games, the Jets rank slightly better than average in the league in terms of high-danger chances allowed, while Hellebuyck holds an .871 save percentage over his last 10 starts.

While I am aware the Jets’ offensive play likely will come down to earth soon, and it’s not entirely wise to bank on Hellebuyck offering below-average results, an opening total of 5.5 still seems too low given the high-event hockey both sides have played recently.

Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators—Regulation Tie: +320

Three-point games have been running rampant in the NHL this season, particularly in matchups involving two Eastern Conference teams, which is why technically only the New York Rangers hold a record below .500 in the Eastern Conference. They have also hit at a very high rate in games involving the Canadiens, whose matchups have required overtime 33.3% of the time thus far this season.

Betting on games to end in a tie is probably never going to be a super popular play among recreational bettors, as it’s an angle that will always lose more often than it wins. At prices in the +320 range, though, bettors would be faring quite well backing Canadiens games to require overtime this season, let alone if there was any precision with regard to selecting specific games to reach overtime.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these Atlantic Division rivals. The Canadiens won the first meeting 4-3 in overtime before the Senators earned a 5-2 win on December 2nd, when Samuel Montembeault was struggling mightily.

Based off of what we have seen from each of these sides of late, it seems likely to expect both teams to bring a strong effort into this matchup, and it could be unlikely that either is able to garner much separation on the scoreboard.

The Senators have won two straight matchups, and it feels as though if they can get a respectable level of goaltending, they are poised to make a push for a playoff spot. They hold a 52.69% expected goal share over the last 10 games and have allowed only 3.12 xGA/60 in that span.

Now that they are playing at full strength, the Senators’ defensive core looks quite solid, and they should be able to keep themselves in this matchup with what has been an underrated defensive process.

There are a lot of positives to point out regarding the Canadiens’ recent play, however, and their steady 6-3-1 run has them safely holding down a divisional seed from the Atlantic. Alexandre Texier has proven to be an excellent pickup that has fit in well as a complementary piece on the top line, while Ivan Demidov and Juraj Slafkovsky have powered the second line to much better results than we have seen for much of the last two seasons.

I’m not sold that the Senators are likely to win this game by a margin, but in a critical spot on home ice, I believe they will be able to keep it highly competitive despite their recent goaltending concerns.

Due to the +320 price tag, I see value in targeting this matchup to require overtime in a spot where a highly competitive back-and-forth game seems probable.

New York Islanders vs Calgary Flames

Islanders moneyline odds	-110
Flames moneyline odds	-110
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 goals (+100)
Time	3:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• Oddsmakers are more or less taking a clear stance that they do not believe the Islanders are as formidable as their 26-16-5 record suggests in pricing this game as a pick’em.
• Over the last 10 games, the Islanders hold an expected goal share of 43.46%, which is the second-worst mark in the NHL. They have generated only 24.58 shots per 60 and 2.86 shots per 60 in that span.
• Ilya Sorokin is now the Vezina Trophy favourite (-110), having played to a save percentage of .930 over his last 15 appearances.
• At the time of writing, the Islanders have not confirmed a starting goaltender, but it is a potential spot for backup David Rittich to start versus his former side, as Sorokin has started three straight games.
• The Flames wrapped up a five-game road trip with a 3-1 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday evening. This matchup will be the first game of a five-game homestand, and they have been solid at home this season with a record of 12-7-2.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Winnipeg Jets

Maple Leafs moneyline odds	+105
Jets moneyline odds	-125
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 goals (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• William Nylander is day-to-day after seemingly suffering a non-contact injury while celebrating a goal in Thursday’s matchup versus the Golden Knights.
• Kyle Connor has registered four goals and nine points over his last three matchups versus the Maple Leafs.
• The Jets lost 6-5 in the previous matchup between these sides on New Year’s Day.
• The Leafs will conclude a difficult four-game road trip in this matchup. They are 7-11-3 as the away team this season.

Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators

Canadiens moneyline odds	+105
Senators moneyline odds	-125
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 goals (-120)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• It seems logical to expect that Leevi Merilainen will get the start in goal for the Senators. Linus Ullmark returned from his personal leave Friday and skated with the team, but it’s unlikely that he will be ready to start in this matchup. Merilainen holds an .862 save percentage and 3.33 GAA over his last 10 starts.
• Ivan Demidov and Juraj Slafkovsky have combined for 33 points over the last 15 games.
• The Canadiens currently hold reverse splits, as they have been more successful on the road thus far this season with a record of 13-5-6.
• With Ullmark back from his personal leave, the Senators have zero players currently on the IR, which is quite rare as the condensed schedule has seemingly led to a higher number of injuries across the league recently.

Edmonton Oilers vs Vancouver Canucks

Oilers moneyline odds	-170
Canucks moneyline odds	+145
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 goals (-110)
Time	10 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• Though the Canucks are one of the only NHL teams who have seemingly no chance of earning a playoff berth, they should be well motivated to play spoiler versus a division rival on Hockey Night in Canada, and snap their nine-game losing skid.
• This is the third meeting of the season between these sides. The Oilers won 3-1 on home ice on October 11th, before losing 4-3 in overtime on October 26th in Vancouver.
• It may be a blessing in disguise given that the Canucks may not have been overly competitive either way, but they have lost more man games than any other team in the NHL this season, and their injury report remains quite painful currently with Filip Chytil, Marco Rossi, Thatcher Demko, and Kiefer Sherwood among others still sidelined.
• The chances were there, but Connor McDavid had his 20-game point streak snapped in Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the New York Islanders.
• Tristan Jarry is expected to make his second start since coming off of the IR in this matchup. Jarry holds a +4.7 GSAx rating and .903 save percentage across 18 appearances this season.

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