Bet365 is offering a 30% same-game parlay boost for Thursday’s massive 14-game NHL slate, and the critical matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens appears to be a fun spot to use it. Our three-leg same-game parlay for Thursday’s matchup prices out at +300, prior to the 30% boost.
This matchup is a potential first-round preview, though the winner will still have a legitimate chance of securing the Atlantic Division title. The Lightning may be without some critical skaters, as has been the case for most of the year, while the Canadiens’ recent play may not necessarily be as dominant as their 9-1-0 record suggests.
Cole Caufield’s pursuit of what has proven to be an elusive 50th goal offers another exciting storyline to this matchup, and we will be counting on Caufield to record at least three shots on goal to round out our three-leg parlay.
- Jakub Dobes Over 24.5 Saves (-130 as a straight)
- Darren Raddysh Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110 as a straight)
- Cole Caufield Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-245 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Lightning/Habs SGP
Leg 1: Jakub Dobes Over 24.5 Saves (-130 as a straight)
Dobes has won eight of his last nine starts, averaging 31.5 saves per game in that span. While the Canadiens do not appear to be allowing too many full-fledged defensive breakdowns of late, they have not necessarily been controlling play regionally the way you would expect from a team on such a heater.
My expectation is that we will see a closely contested matchup, where the Lightning generate a steady output of shots on goal, but do not generate much separation on the scoreboard, which would place this prop in peril.
Tampa Bay has generated 28.29 shots for per 60 in 22 games since the Olympic break, and should be able to play to that average Thursday versus a Canadiens side that has allowed 28.71 shots against per 60 in the same span.
Leg 2: Darren Raddysh Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110 as a straight)
Raddysh has emerged as the Lightning’s clear-cut number one offensive defenceman this season and he has recorded nine goals over the last 30 games, while averaging 3.36 shots per game. His bomb from the point has become one of the more commonly utilized options on the team’s top power play, an option which is consistently utilized by Nikita Kucherov working off of the half wall.
The Canadiens have allowed 8.6 shots per game to defenders over the last 10 matchups. They generally like to try and collapse low to prevent true Grade “A” chances from the slot, and that tactical approach should help Raddysh get some shots through in this matchup.
Backing Raddysh to record over 2.5 shots on goal correlates well with our first leg backing Dobes to record over 24.5 saves, and as -110 presents to hold strong value by itself, this is a very natural second leg.
Leg 3: Cole Caufield Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-245 as a straight)
Backing Caufield to record over 3.5 shots on goal at +105 also presents as a viable option, but I like taking the safe route here and using this leg to unlock the 30% boost.
Caufield has clearly been pressing to record his 50th of the season, having attempted 21 shots over the last three games. This game brings about a bit of a different dynamic given the heightened focus from fans and the team on simply winning the game, but that shifted perspective might not be such a bad thing.
Montreal’s top line should play heavy minutes given the importance of this matchup, and the trio could have a better chance of managing some strong chances if both Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel are to remain sidelined, as both typically play lots of minutes versus opposing top lines, and are elite defensively.
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