What a difference two games can make in the world of MLB odds and betting.
The Toronto Blue Jays, who had +300 odds to win the World Series and -120 odds to win the American League Championship Series at bet365 after dispatching the New York Yankees in four games in the ALDS, now find themselves in a 2-0 deficit in their best-of-seven series with the Mariners, with the scene shifting to Seattle for Game 3 on Wednesday.
Blue Jays to win ALCS vs. Mariners
The situation is now dire, with the next three games of the series (if Game 5 is needed) being played in Seattle at T-Mobile Park. As a result, Toronto’s World Series odds are now a long +1200, and the Blue Jays are +475 to stage a comeback and win the ALCS.
In MLB postseason history, teams taking a 2-0 lead in any best-of-seven series have gone on to take that series 78 of 93 times (83.9%). In series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams winning both Games 1 and 2 on the road have prevailed in the series 24 of 27 times (88.9%).
The last team to rally from a 2-0 series deficit in a best-of-seven MLB playoff series was the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2023 NLCS. However, the last team to do it after losing the first two games at home was the Yankees vs. the Atlanta Braves back in the 1996 World Series.
With online sportsbooks offering odds between +475 and +500 for Toronto to win the series (16-17% implied probability), bettors aren’t getting great value on backing a Blue Jays comeback in this series given the historical data.
ALCS summary
The Seattle Mariners have seized control of the 2025 MLB ALCS with two impressive wins over the Toronto Blue Jays, both played at Rogers Centre. With the series now shifting to Seattle and the Mariners holding a 2-0 lead, they are just two victories away from their first World Series appearance in franchise history.
Game 1: Mariners Edge Blue Jays 3-1
In the series opener on October 12, the Blue Jays struck first when George Springer launched a leadoff home run off Bryce Miller, electrifying the Toronto crowd. However, Miller remained composed on short rest, holding Toronto to just two hits and a single run over six gritty innings. Seattle’s bats were quiet against Kevin Gausman, who retired 15 straight Mariners at one point, but in the sixth inning, Cal Raleigh delivered a solo home run to tie the game. Jorge Polanco followed with an RBI single to give Seattle the lead and added another run-scoring single in the eighth for insurance. Closer Andrés Muñoz finished the job, sealing a 3-1 win that silenced the home fans and set the tone for Seattle’s postseason resilience
Game 2: Mariners Dominate Blue Jays 10-3
Game 2 saw Seattle’s offence explode for 10 runs, powered by three mammoth home runs. Julio Rodríguez set the tone with a three-run blast in the first inning, and Josh Naylor added a two-run shot. Toronto briefly rallied with three runs, including a two-run first, but the Mariners quickly regained control. The defining moment came in the fifth, when Jorge Polanco crushed a three-run homer off Louis Varland, his third long ball in the postseason. Seattle’s relentless attack left Toronto’s pitching staff reeling and the crowd subdued.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 3 odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +115 |
| Mariners moneyline odds | -135 |
| Runline odds | Mariners -1.5 (+165), Blue Jays +1.5 (-200) |
| Game total | Over 7 runs (+100), Under 7 runs (-120) |
| Date/time | Oct. 15, 8:08 p.m. ET |
Toronto will send 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber to the mound in Game 3 to battle Seattle’s George Kirby. Bieber lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his lone playoff debut in the ALDS against the Yankees, allowing two earned runs on five hits on just 54 pitches. Kirby meanwhile, was solid for the Mariners in their ALDS series with the Detroit Tigers, allowing three earned runs over 10 innings on nine hits while striking out 14 batters.