Most observers would agree that Sweden’s performance in the Olympic men’s hockey tournament group stage was highly disappointing, but all of that will be forgotten if it is able to come together at the right moment and shock a well-rounded American side in a do-or-die game Wednesday.However, head coach Sam Hallam’s usage has been puzzling at times, and Sweden’s defensive core has looked surprisingly concerning.
Team USA. also offered some disjointed moments in the group stage, but all things considered, was still a force to be reckoned with, outscoring opponents 16 to five en route to a record of 3-0-0-0. The one knock on Team USA is that they have not yet truly been tested, and in that regard, this game could prove to be a positive or a curse if they are to come up short.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this tremendous Olympics men’s hockey quarterfinal matchup, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Sweden vs. USA Best Bet: Under 6 Goals +102
Game total under 6 goals
There are some arguments that draw concern towards the potential of this being a lower-scoring affair, but not enough so to scare me off of backing the under with the total of six available for a do-or-die elimination game featuring two high-quality nations.
It’s generally been proven that high-pressure do-or-die games tend to lend themselves to lower totals. The last 25 NHL Game 7’s have held an average total of 4.68 goals. Tuesday’s qualifier elimination games held an average combined total of five, and all stayed under their respective betting totals. At the 4 Nations Tournament last year, USA’s two matchups versus Canada featured 4.5 combined goals.
It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but my overlying point is that it’s been a pretty consistent theme that this type of matchup tends to lead to significantly reduced offensive totals. Players will tend to have a fairly conservative mindset in attempting to manage pucks safely, and defensive urgency and structure tends to always be a major focus for sides involved in this type of pressure-packed game.
Sweden’s overall game has not looked as functional as expected, and at times defensive skaters such as Victor Hedman have looked a step slow on puck retrievals and with regard to defending the rush. Still, there’s enough proven NHL talent to have me believing they can insulate Jacob Markstrom respectably in this matchup and strive to make this game into a bit of a coin-flip-type affair playing as heavy underdogs.
American GM Bill Guerin passed on bringing a lot of high-upside scoring talent in order to build a team that would theoretically find success in low-scoring, tight-checking affairs. While that strategy is debatable, it seems reasonable to believe that head coach Mike Sullivan and Guerin’s vision is not to win this type of game by blowing their opponent out of the water offensively.
That’s not to say the talent is not there, but from a tactical standpoint, it doesn’t seem logical to expect the Americans to press too aggressively for offence in this game. The greater focus for the group will likely revolve around playing the game the right way defensively.
Connor Hellebuyck is not exactly the most proven big-game goaltender, particularly relative to his overall stature, but it seems reasonable to expect Team USA to lock it down defensively in this game and allow his workload to mainly be the type of shots he is expected to save.
USA vs. Sweden Odds
| USA moneyline odds | -220 |
| Sweden moneyline odds | +180 |
| Puck Line odds | USA -1.5 (+115), Sweden +1.5 (-135) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-140), Under 5.5 (+120) |
Betting Team USA
In the group stage, Team USA’s best stretches of play were quite convincing, but those flashes of brilliance were certainly less consistent and more intertwined with lapses in form than we saw from Canada. On paper, Team USA also played in the softest group, as both Switzerland and Czechia would be considered fairly heavy favourites in head-to-head matchups versus Germany, Latvia or Denmark.
All told, USA still outscored its opponents 16 to five and held a 71.9% share of shots from the inner slot, which leads all teams in the tournament.
The USA’s greatest perceived edge over Canada in this tournament was its deep and tremendously mobile defensive core, headlined by Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski. While the unit holds plenty of offensive upside, it also features strong shutdown defenders such as Jaccob Slavin and Charlie McAvoy.
At times, the unit looked more mistake-prone than what we saw from Canada, but is still the greatest reason that USA could prove to be an extremely tough out in this tournament.
The team made some highly controversial choices up front in opting to pass on skaters such as Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield, but there is certainly still more than enough elite offensive talent to find success in this tournament despite those absences.
There have been some American forwards who have looked a little off in this tournament though, and if they do struggle to create offence in the more competitive knockout round, those omissions are instantly going to be called into question. Dylan Larkin has been surprisingly underwhelming in the tournament, Matt Boldy has not been overly dominant, and Kyle Connor now finds himself as a healthy scratch.
As the USA does not appear to have forwards quite at the level of skaters such as Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon or Macklin Celebrini, Auston Matthews’ play has drawn some criticism given that he is a former Hart Trophy winner. Criticizing Matthews’ play seems to come down to what your perceived expectations are, though. He has not looked to be at the level of Canada’s top forwards; however, he has scored three goals in the tournament, ranks seventh in puck battles won, and is first in expected goals scored.
It hasn’t felt as though Team USA has been entirely clicking on all cylinders, particularly if we base our thoughts off of the perceived difficulty of the group, but that doesn’t discount the possibility of the team elevating its level in the more difficult matchups.
Canada lost 5-3 to the U.S. in 2010 and needed a shootout to get by Switzerland, which ultimately resulted in the team playing in the qualifier round. They then found another level the rest of the way. Easier said than done, but that does illustrate the possibility that teams can take a bit to round into form in this tournament.
Hellebuyck, the 2025 Hart Trophy winner, will presumably get the start in goal. Though he’s not historically fared well in the postseason with the Winnipeg Jets, Hellebuyck did finish with a .943 save percentage and 1.18 GAA at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Betting Sweden
Sweden took two steps in the right direction in its two most recent games, besting Slovakia 5-3 before a convincing 5-1 victory over an unconvincing Latvian side Tuesday. Their blue-line has looked a little better in those matchups, as Erik Karlsson was excellent playing alongside Philip Broberg, while Victor Hedman hung in more respectably alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who was was barely playing at the start of the tournament.
A big question for Sweden in this matchup will be whether the defensive core can handle dump-ins effectively and move pucks out the first time of asking. Those were key issues versus Finland, as Hedman, in particular, has looked a step slow in this tournament having just returned from injury.
The unit has cleaned things up over the last two games but still feels a little shaky after struggling in their main test of the tournament, being the rivalry game versus Finland.
Head coach Sam Hallam does not seem to have done an overly strong job bringing this group together. Things have looked better over a pair of soft matchups, but given the amount of talent on the roster, it seems fair to say the group has not looked overly structured or organized, especially early on in the tournament.
Hallam’s usage has been quite puzzling, at best. It was hard to understand why Filip Forsberg played just over one minute versus Italy, and now that Forsberg has earned some trust, he’s looked more or less as effective as expected. Jesper Bratt was a healthy scratch in Monday’s matchup versus Latvia. Next to all observers would agree that Bratt’s play in the tournament has been a disappointment. However, he’s at the level where it would be assumed he’d at least stay in the lineup and be awarded the opportunity to prove himself, particularly given that Sweden realistically needs to shoot for upside to contend with the other powerhouses in this tournament.
Sweden’s goaltending picture has also been a little bit messy. Filip Gustavsson was the number-one option entering the tournament but, after a fairly shaky start to the tournament, did not dress in the team’s elimination game Monday.
Markstrom stopped 29 of 32 shots faced versus Slovakia, which earned him the start in Tuesday’s game, in which he stopped 20 of 21 shots. It seems likely that he will get the nod in Wednesday’s matchup, though it’s not impossible that the plan was to win the softer game with the perceived number-two in goal.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!