We are close to two-thirds of the way through the NHL‘s 82-game regular season, and with just one game on the slate Friday, it appears to be a fitting time to dive into a couple of the more intriguing NHL individual awards markets. The numbers listed below are currently available on bet365 as of January 30th.
Jack Adams Award Odds
Generally, the Jack Adams is won by either the coach of the most overachieving team, or the coach of the Presidents’ Trophy winner if that team happens to achieve a notably high total of points. Jared Bednar has been priced as a heavy favourite to win the Jack Adams for the majority of the season due to the Colorado Avalanche’s absurd level of dominance, but with the Avs sporting a record of just 5-6-2 in the month of January, other narratives seem to be coming into play.
The Buffalo Sabres were priced at +270 to make the playoffs entering the year and have rattled off a 20-3-1 run to make snapping a 14-year playoff drought quite probable. That has moved Lindy Ruff into the position of outright favourite at +180.
Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper is priced at +250 to finally receive formal confirmation as one of the league’s best coaches, which seems fair given that he’s led an injury-plagued side to a record of 34-14-4.
While I’m not in disagreement with the strong cases for Ruff, Bednar, and Cooper, there is a pretty strong case that Pittsburgh Penguins Dan Muse should be more live than the current price suggests.
Dan Muse to Win Jack Adams: (+1200)
The Penguins started the year with a betting total of 76.5 points and were priced at +650 to make the playoffs. While, unfortunately, it’s a reach to assume the majority of voters will realize it, the betting odds prove that the Penguins’ level of success is still a far greater overachievement than what the Sabres are doing.
Despite entering as the favourite to finish last in the Metropolitan Division and third most likely to finish last in the NHL, Muse’s Penguins are 27-14-11 playing out of an ultra-competitive Eastern Conference.
Muse is not yet getting much hype from voters and that is a meaningful concern, as this vote doesn’t come down to who handicappers such as myself think should win based off preseason expectations. However, a key reason that Muse does still appear to be worth a shot at +1200 are the arguments that suggest the Penguins appear to be likely to continue achieving strong results.
Narratives seem to come in waves in the mainstream NHL media, and if the Penguins finish the 82-game schedule with a .625 points percentage, as they currently hold, the Muse narrative should pick up steam.
The Penguins currently hold the sixth-best goal differential as well as the sixth-best expected goal share in the NHL. They are just 1-7 in shootouts, despite their strong overall record. These are strong indicators that the level of success achieved is legitimate and sustainable.
GM Kyle Dubas deserves plenty of credit for buying low on a number of skaters who have been important to the Penguins’ success. Still, Muse deserves a ton of praise for essentially getting the most out of every skater on the roster. That even applies to skaters such as Erik Karlsson, who was with the team last season and has publicly praised Muse for the team’s turnaround.
Analytics certainly aren’t everything, and it does feel like Ruff’s Sabres have something special going. However, in January, Buffalo holds a 46.79% expected goal share at even strength and has the 6th-highest shooting percentage in the NHL.
It seems a little more likely that the Sabres will slow down than the Penguins, and if Pittsburgh finishes with a greater total of points it should help Muse’s case, given that his team was expected to finish well below Buffalo in the standings entering the year.
So my point here is not to argue that Muse deserves to be the favourite, but to suggest that he has a better chance than the current price of +1200, and to target the idea that the media will start to give him the level of credit he deserves if the Penguins finish strong.
Dan Muse to Win the 2026 Jack Adams
James Norris Award Odds
Contrary to the battle for the Jack Adams Award, it’s essentially a two-horse race for the Norris Trophy, as in all likelihood it will come down to a close vote between Cale Makar and Zach Werenski. The case for Werenski currently appears quite strong, and it seems wise to buy on Werenski before the markets are more even.
Zach Werenski to Win the Norris Trophy: +175
Makar has had an absolutely tremendous season, registering 56 points in 52 games for an Avalanche side that should coast to a Presidents’ Trophy win. It’s hard to respectfully suggest that another defender has outperformed him while also appreciating his level of brilliance.
But the case that Werenski has been more impactful than Makar is quite solid, particularly given that he is clearly the greatest reason Columbus is even remotely involved in the Eastern Conference playoff race, when even the bottom wildcard seed may finish with 100 points.
At the time of writing, Werenski has put up 57 points in 48 games, which is 13 more than the next closest Blue Jackets skater. Werenski not only has more points than Makar, but he’s done so despite Makar spending the bulk of his minutes on the ice with Nathan MacKinnon’s line and playing on a historically strong team.
MacKinnon has put up 88 points in 52 games, and for as great as Makar is, he clearly benefits from playing with arguably the game’s best player. Kirill Marchenko is a highly underrated forward, but it’s clear that Werenski is the absolute driving force behind the Blue Jackets offence, while the same cannot be said for Makar.
And for what it’s worth, Werenski also has four more goals than Makar at the time of writing.
And it’s not just the offensive statistics that suggest Werenski has outperformed Makar thus far this season. Per Evolving Hockey, Werenski currently holds a +22.7 expected goals above replacement rating, while Makar holds a +9 expected goals above replacement rating.
Those numbers will bother some readers, to be sure, but they are calculated based off of how the metrics suggest a player is driving play based on the scoring chances for and against when they are on the ice.
Werenski has spent at least 140 minutes playing alongside Dante Fabbro, Denton Mateychuk, and Ivan Provorov this season. None of whom are remotely close to the partner that Makar has in Devon Toews, yet those pairings hold a combined goal differential of +13.
I’m not trying to argue that Werenski is a superior player to Makar, and if I were starting a franchise, I’d obviously pick Makar over Werenski. It’s reasonable to argue Makar is a little more likely to finish strong based on the levels of play the two have offered throughout their careers.
However, given that we are almost two-thirds of the way through the year and the case that Werenski has outperformed Makar thus far is so strong, a price of +175 looks to be worth a shot, as it seems reasonable to believe the narrative that Werenski can play well enough down the stretch to hang on and win a vote that currently should be his.