Even relative to their sky-high expectations entering the Olympic men’s hockey tournament, Canada looked extraordinarily dominant through the group stage, playing to a 3-0-0-0 record and outscoring opponents 20-3. Perhaps most surprising out of the team’s results was how utterly dominant it was in the previous matchup versus Czechia, earning a 5-1 win while allowing very few legitimate scoring chances.
At the time of writing, the betting odds suggest that Czechia has a 13.79% chance of pulling off what would be a monumental upset Wednesday in the quarterfinals of the tournament. While anything can happen in a do-or-die game featuring a Czechia side with an elite goaltender, it almost still seems hard to imagine Czechia winning this game more than one out of every 10 times.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this Olympic hockey matchup, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Canada vs. Czechia Best Bet: Connor McDavid to Score -125
Connor McDavid to score
We kept it simple and chalky in backing McDavid to score at -112 versus Switzerland, and to record two points at -105. The price for McDavid to score in Wednesday’s matchup has dropped to -125, but that does not appear to be enough of an adjustment to pass on the most obvious prop from this matchup given what we have seen from McDavid, and that Czechia has not looked all that threatening.
While Czechia has built up a reputation for being quite scrappy in international play in recent years, its play in this tournament has been quite underwhelming. Switzerland bested them 4-3 in overtime despite the key loss of Kevin Fiala, and generated 13 shots from the inner slot.
Czechia then allowed two goals and 26 shots in a fairly unconvincing win over Denmark on Tuesday, and looked shaky defensively, given that Denmark’s offensive upside is obviously significantly more muted than Canada’s.
There’s not a lot that suggests Canada’s ultra-dominant top line of McDavid, Macklin Celebrini, and either Tom Wilson or Nathan MacKinnon will not entirely dominate this matchup, as we have seen in each of the other three games in this tournament.
McDavid did not score versus Czechia in the previous matchup but had six shots on goal and looked incredible, which was what prompted a ton of bettors, such as myself, to back him scoring in the following matchup versus Switzerland. McDavid led all Canadian skaters with 10 shots on goal from the inner slot in the group stage.
Celebrini finished third among Canadian skaters with six shots from the inner slot and also looked incredible in the group stage, and backing Celebrini to score will be a popular and perfectly reasonable option. I’ll be annoyed for saying this if only Celebrini is to score, but given the modest disparity in price between Celebrini and McDavid, McDavid does present as the slightly better option to me given that he has had notably more chances and is also still on the top power-play unit.
Either way, bet365‘s odds for Canada’s top options to do some damage in this matchup appear quite reasonable, as it seems likely that we will see more of the same from Canada’s top unit in this matchup versus a Czechia side that has been less effective defensively than expected in this tournament.
Canada vs. Czechia best bet: Martin Necas to score +375
Martin Necas to score
For a smaller stake, there also looks to be value in backing Necas to score at +375. Necas has, by a fairly wide margin been Czechia’s best skater in the tournament, and was tremendous in the team’s win over Denmark with one goal, one assist, and five shots on target.
Canada obviously presents a drastically more difficult challenge and will likely only allow one or two goals at most, but a price of +375 seems high enough to compensate for that fact because of how Necas has played in this tournament, and I believe his price to score should be a little closer to that of David Pastrnak, who’s been highly underwhelming.
Canada vs. Czechia Odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -950 |
| Czechia moneyline odds | +625 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -2.5 (-155), Czechia +2.5 (+130) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-165), Under 5.5 (+140) |
Betting Team Canada
Canada finished as the number-one seed in the group stage with a +17 goal differential and never trailed at any point in the tournament. They played with the lead for all but 34:59 and owned 70.1% of the shots on goal from the slot across their opening three matchups. Even relative to what was expected, it was a highly convincing group stage for Canada.
If we want to really nitpick, Switzerland had some shifts in which they were able to cause problems in Canada’s zone and did generate a few more high-danger chances than their one-goal output would suggest, but certainly not to the point that it should draw too much concern.
Canada’s blue line has been highly effective, despite dealing with the fairly noteworthy loss of Josh Morrissey, who will presumably be ready to return in this matchup. I was unsold on Drew Doughty’s inclusion on this team, and I’ll happily eat some crow in pointing out that Doughty has managed pucks extremely well and clearly proven that he still has plenty of worth.
Thomas Harley has also been fantastic, and like Doughty, has clearly found another gear relative to what we have seen in the NHL this season. He’s taken on a monster role through three games, but he will presumably see a slightly smaller workload if Morrissey is to return in this matchup and offer his regular workload.
Colton Parayko may be the defender who’s least silenced; his inclusion on the roster is based on the first three games, though it is still certainly nitpicking to say that and by no means has he been poor.
All in all, Canada’s defensive core has hung in quite effectively, which is all you can ask for given that the team’s incredible offensive core was always projected to be the greatest strength.
Canada’s top line of McDavid and Celebrini with either Wilson or MacKinnon has been absolutely incredible, and head coach Jon Cooper has done well to still offer them a worthy share of minutes, despite all of the other top talents on the team.
Canada’s second line of Mark Stone, Sidney Crosby, and Mitch Marner has also been highly effective. Their slower, more methodical approach led by plenty of passes in tight areas is entirely different than that of Canada’s highly effective top line but has presented plenty of challenges for the opposition.
The only slight concern for Canada up front could arguably be that it still does not appear to have two dead-set combinations in the bottom six that have shown strong chemistry. There’s been strong individual moments from skaters such as Bo Horvat, but the other two lines have not looked quite as cohesive as the top two units.
Jordan Binnington was sharp in a shutout performance versus Czechia in the opener, before allowing two goals on 14 shots versus France. A blowout win may not be the type of matchup that suits Binnington’s eye, but he undoubtedly should have saved Sascha Treille’s slapper in the third period and probably could have controlled the rebound more effectively on France’s first goal of the game.
Regardless, Binnington was clearly viewed as the number-one option by management entering the tournament following his heroics at the 4 Nations Face-Off and did not play his way out of the role in the group stage. I’m personally not entirely sold that his group stage proved much and am still a little concerned about his work in the NHL this season, but it’s still reasonable for the team to stick with him and they will do so in this matchup.
Betting Czechia
While it was always going to be a long shot for Czechia to medal in this tournament, it seems reasonable to argue that their overall performance has been underwhelming.
Canada waltzed through Czechia quite comfortably in the first matchup, and at no point did the result feel to be anything but a given. That was more or less to be expected, but you could argue that Switzerland fared much better versus Canada, and though it took until overtime, was a worthy winner when the two met in the group stage, as Switzerland led 13 to five in shots on goal from the inner slot.
Czechia’s 3-2 win over Denmark in a do-or-die matchup Monday also was not exactly indicative that they have the ceiling needed to beat Canada in this matchup. Denmark had some legitimate chances to tie the game late, and Lukas Dostal outperforming Frederik Andersen in goal was a key reason for the final result.
Czechia does not need to apologize for offering a high-quality goaltender in Dostal, but it’s not exactly a strong indicator that it potentially may not have bested Denmark if not for a strong performance from Dostal relative to Frederik Andersen at the other end.
Czechia’s depth on the back end has been concerning, and is obviously a meaningful issue in a matchup versus a relentless Canadian side that not only offers some of the best offensive skaters on the planet but also all-star calibre skaters further down the card.
Another notable concern for Czechia has been that Pastrnak has not quite looked right. Relative to other superstar talents in this tournament who generally all dominated softer opponents, Pastrnak’s play has been disappointing, and he had an extremely quiet night the last time these sides faced off.
Czechia’s most threatening skater has been Necas by a considerable margin, and he was fantastic in Monday’s matchup while producing two points. Head coach Jon Cooper likely isn’t scared of any of his units handling minutes versus Necas, but if there is a guy to game-plan around for Czechia, it’s certainly Necas.
Another concern for Czechia has been that their power-play unit has not yet looked overly cohesive. With Necas, Pastrnak, Tomas Hertl, and Filip Hronek all on the top unit there should be enough talent to impose a meaningful threat, but zone-entries have been a surprisingly legitimate concern, while creating shots from the interior has proven quite difficult.
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