The NHL playoff race heats up on Saturday afternoon as the Ottawa Senators travel to UBS Arena for a crucial matchup against the New York Islanders — and we’ve got your top Senators vs. Islanders same game parlay picks ready to go. Both teams enter with postseason stakes on the line: Ottawa can all but clinch a playoff spot with two points, while the Isles need a win to keep their postseason hopes alive under new head coach Pete DeBoer. With the Senators surging and the Islanders eyeing a home-ice rebound, our SGP combines value on an Ottawa win and a moderately high-scoring affair.
Our two-leg parlay targets a moderately high-scoring win from the red-hot Senators and prices out at +219 at one of our best NHL betting sites, bet365.
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-120 as a straight)
- Over 5.5 Goals (-135 as a straight)
Nick’s Senators/Islanders SGP
Leg 1: Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-120 as a straight)
A big part of evaluating the fair price for this game comes down to how greatly you want to value a potential “new coach bounce” from the Islanders as well as the do-or-die nature of this game on home ice. New York was absolutely dominant in its first game under DeBoer, but that was versus a horrid Toronto Maple Leafs side playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
Looking at it from a much wider lens, the Senators have played at a drastically higher level than the Islanders in the final third of the season, particularly when you consider that some of Ottawa’s less dominant recent showings came when both Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot were out of the lineup.
Over the last 28 games, the Senators are 19-6-3. They have scored 3.64 goals per game in that span and allowed only 2.39 goals against per game. In that time frame they hold the best expected goal share in the league and also hold a league-best 4.25 xGF/60 rating.
Analytics aside, head coach Travis Green’s side has offered a notably well-structured team game. They have done a great job of driving pucks into dangerous areas offensively, forcing turnovers in key areas, and are rarely caught out in transition. If Ottawa’s goaltending was more respectable early on in the season, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to say Green would be in the Jack Adams conversation.
The Islanders hold a record of 11-10-0 in 21 games played since the Olympic break, and hold an expected goal share of 46.9% in that span. At no point this season have they truly looked overly dominant, but Ilya Sorokin was absolutely incredible for the majority of the campaign, which masked a lot of flaws.
Relieving Patrick Roy of his head coaching duties seems reasonable because of the quality of coach the Islanders were able to obtain, but the roster undoubtedly has some notable flaws, and in that regard, Roy seems to be somewhat of a sacrificial lamb.
Leg 2: Over 5.5 Goals (-135 as a straight)
The Islanders will do their absolute best to make this game into a slog, but that has been the case in the majority of their recent matchups, and ultimately their lapses in the defensive zone have proven far too consistent.
Sorokin has finally faltered of late after shouldering a ton of weight for the vast majority of the season. He holds an .879 save percentage and 3.42 GAA over his last 10 appearances. As noted, for a fairly large sample the Senators have been generating the most many quality chances as any team in the league, and they should be able to generate a ton of offensive zone time versus a thin Islanders roster.
While Ottawa’s defensive play also remains excellent, it continues to receive fairly average play in goal, which is the obvious concern heading towards the postseason.
This spot does not exactly scream high-scoring game and will feature a playoff feel, but I’m not sure that a few practices under DeBoer will be enough for the Islanders to entirely clean up their shaky in-zone coverage. While I’m not sold on the Islanders’ ability to shut down the Sens’ strong attack, they do rank in the middle of the league in terms of high-danger chance creation of late, and should be able to manage a few goals against Linus Ullmark.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!