Tuesday’s NHL matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Edmonton Oilers comes at at a very interesting time as we attempt to craft a same game parlay for this all-Canadian showdown on March 3. An Oilers side that is still priced as Stanley Cup contenders will be desperate to right the ship, while the Senators are in desperate need of two points with just 23 games left to close the gap on the Boston Bruins for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Despite scoring 17 goals, the Oilers managed to earn just two points from their three-game California road swing last week. The general focus from head coach Kris Knoblauch entering this game will undoubtedly revolve around cleaner defensive play, while GM Stan Bowman also looked to help alleviate the team’s goal suppression concerns Monday by acquiring defender Connor Murphy.
While the Oilers have not been great defensively of late, it still seems that the greatest concern for the team has been the shaky play of Tristan Jarry and Connor Ingram in goal. Even if they do play a sharper game defensively, it may not mean keeping the Senators entirely in check offensively.
This seems to set up as a good spot to target a same game parlay revolving around some offence from both sides. Our same game parlay pays out at +390 at the time of writing and is eligible for the 30% boost offered by bet365 for Tuesday’s NHL slate.
- Tim Stutzle/Drake Batherson 1+ Point Each (+105 as a two-leg parlay)
- Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-120 as a straight bet)
- Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points (-270 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Senators/Oilers SGP
Legs 1 and 2: Tim Stutzle/Drake Batherson 1+ Point Each (+105 as a two-leg parlay)
We’ve been high on the Stutzle/Batherson stack for much of this season, as online sportsbooks continue to seemingly believe that Batherson’s level of production is not sustainable. Batherson has put up 51 points in 56 games this season, though he’s not been entirely productive of late, and the Senators’ current top line of Batherson, Stutzle, and Claude Giroux has continued to look quite threatening.
Across 99.4 minutes of play, the Batherson-Stutzle-Giroux combination holds a 64% expected goal share and has generated 3.32 xGF/60 this season. Batherson and Stutzle also skate on the Senators’ top power-play unit, which has succeeded on 26.2% of opportunities over the last 15 games.
The Oilers have allowed 3.53 goals per game over the last 15 matchups. Murphy’s acquisition should help to some extent, but he will not be in the lineup Tuesday, and goaltending still remains the greatest concern.
This stack is fully correlated with Batherson and Stutzle skating together at even strength and on the power play, which is why these picks have been outlined together. In a matchup where the Senators should have some success offensively, a price of +105 for both Batherson and Stutzle to record a point looks to provide value.
Leg 3: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-120 as a straight bet)
McDavid has not missed a beat following a tremendous showing at the Olympics, as in an effort to drag his flawed side to success, he’s put up seven points in three games since the restart. It seems unlikely that the Oilers will find success in this matchup without another highly productive performance from McDavid, and head coach Kris Knoblauch will likely once again be forced to offer his captain huge minutes in this matchup.
The Senators are one of the best defensive teams in the league. In fact, from simply an analytical perspective, they’re the best defensive team in the league. They’ve also started to receive more respectable play in goal of late, which has helped the team achieve a strong 6-3-1 record over the last 10 games.
Still, a price of -120 for McDavid to record two points appears to be perfectly playable. Over the last 34 games, McDavid has put up 67 points and recorded over 1.5 points 61.7% of the time. The start of McDavid’s incredible tear coincided with the returns of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, and the three have once again formed an incredible dominant unit at even strength, while the Oilers’ power play remains historically strong.
Leg 4: Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points (-270 as a straight bet)
Just like McDavid, Bouchard is doing some heavy lifting in attempting to hide the team’s goaltending concerns and overall lack of defensive depth. While he will never be a dominant shutdown defender, Bouchard has been in much better form of late at both ends of the ice. He’s adept at making simple plays that help drive possession, and in turn, allow the Oilers’ elite offensive stars to do damage.
For that reason, Knoblauch rightfully attempts to use Bouchard’s pairing alongside his top two offensive units as much as possible.
Bouchard has put up 32 points over the last 20 games. He quarterbacks a historically strong power play and, despite the odd hideous gaffe, has excellent poise with the puck. As a result of his strong playmaking, he’s in line for an assist on plenty of the Oilers’ scoring chances every night, and the fact that he possesses a strong shot of his own doesn’t hurt either.
While I wouldn’t necessarily lay -270 to back Bouchard recording a point as a straight, it does move the price of our parlay from +290 to +390. Considering the likelihood that Bouchard gets at least one point if McDavid gets two, that adjustment in price is enough for me to believe it is worth adding this final leg.
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