As both sides are entirely out of contention, today’s Original Six matchup between the New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs lacks its typical level of appeal. There does appear to be some enticing plays from a betting perspective, though, and I’m excited to outline our three-leg same game parlay below, and try make it two straight after cashing Tuesday’s SGP on the Edmonton Oilers game at +625.
Our three-leg Rangers vs. Maple Leafs same-game parlay for today holds a long price of +390 at the time of writing on our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
- New York Rangers Moneyline (-120 as a straight)
- Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120 as a straight bet)
- Adam Fox Over 0.5 Points (-120 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Rangers/Maple Leafs SGP
Leg 1: New York Rangers Moneyline (-120 as a straight)
The Rangers enter off an embarrassing loss to the Ottawa Senators, in which they generated only 10 shots on goal. They have lost five straight games and are pacing to secure the second-highest odds of winning the first overall pick in the draft lottery.
While nobody is going to be overly interested in touching the Rangers right now, this actually appears to be a good spot to fade the Maple Leafs after they put a huge gash in their rival Boston Bruins’ playoff hopes Tuesday evening.
Five-game skid aside, the Rangers are still 6-5-3 since the Olympic break, have generated 3.36 goals for per game, and allowed 3.21 goals against per game. In the same period, the Maple Leafs are 3-8-4 and have allowed 3.67 goals against per game while scoring only 2.47 goals for per game.
While they hold a much greater actual goal share since the break, New York’s underlying metrics are also better than Toronto’s. The Rangers hold a 47.38% expected goal share in 14 games since the restart, while the Leafs hold a 40.95% expected goal share in the same span.
Though New York’s most recent performance was horrendous, the Senators have been playing an entirely dominant brand of hockey of late. In a much more livable spot versus a Leafs side playing the second leg of a back-to-back, New York should be able to own much more of the play and find a better result.
And while, in general, home-and-road splits can be overvalued, it’s hard to ignore that in New York’s insane splits, particularly with just 11 games left in the season. The Rangers are a respectable 19-16-2 on the road, compared to a mark of 9-18-7 at Madison Square Garden.
Leg 2: Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120 as a straight)
Based on his skill set and playing style, Zibanejad projects as the clear candidate to lead the Rangers in shots on goal the rest of the way. The Leafs have allowed 34.97 shots against per game over the last 15 matchups, and in a matchup where we are expecting them to be outplayed to some extent, this seems to be a natural second leg.
Out of the ten shots on goal the Rangers recorded in Monday’s matchup, Zibanejad had three. He’s had ten shots on goal over the last three games, as well as 14 attempts on goal.
Zibanejad’s one-timer is the primary option on the Rangers’ top power-play unit, while he’s skating alongside Alexis Lafreniere and Gabriel Perreault on a top line that has still fared well relative to the rest of the team, having scored 3.45 goals per 60 across 139 minutes of play this season.
Based on Zibanejad’s expected usage, a price of -120 to record three shots on goal looks to provide value versus a Leafs side that continues to allow more shots on goal than any other team in the league.
Leg 3: Adam Fox Over 0.5 Points (-120 as a straight)
Due to just how horrible the Rangers have been this season, Fox will never get the credit he deserves for what has been a really solid campaign. In 703.8 minutes with the Fox/Vladislav Gavrikov pairing on the ice, the Rangers have outscored opponents 25-20. He’s put up 37 goals in 44 games and holds a +13.7 expected goals above replacement rating per EvolvingHockey.
Over the last 10 games Fox has put up eight points, and his strong puck-moving ability, poise on the blue line, and ability to sift pucks into dangerous areas continue to leave him in line for assists on the majority of the Rangers’ scoring chances.
As we are counting on a Rangers win, and a likely output of at least three points, backing Fox to record a point seems to be a safe option to round out our three-leg parlay.
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