The Edmonton Oilers will look to respond from a pair of regulation losses on home ice when they travel in to the Delta Center to take on the Utah Mammoth Tuesday evening. Our three-leg Oilers vs. Mammoth same game parlay for today holds a long price of +625 at the time of writing, and is eligible for a 25% same game parlay boost from our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
Though the Oilers are still a safe bet to avoid what would be a disastrous postseason absence, as captain Connor McDavid noted, that’s largely due to just how soft the Pacific Division has been this season.
With a 5-3-2 mark in their last 10 games, the Mammoth are now heavily favoured to face the winner of the aforementioned Pacific Division, and if it is the Anaheim Ducks, will be a betting favourite to win that series. Utah is 19-12-3 on home ice this season, and is at close to full health currently with only Nate Schmidt currently sidelined due to injury.
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (+115 as a straight)
- Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110 as a straight bet)
- Matthew Savoie Over 0.5 Points (+125 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Oilers/Mammoth SGP
Leg 1: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (+115 as a straight)
Prior to the previous two losses, it did seem as though the Oilers were beginning to elevate their level of play down the stretch, as has been the case in each of the previous three seasons.
It did seem as though the Florida Panthers looked more like the team that won the previous two Stanley Cups in last Thursday’s win over the Oilers, a game that was likely circled as the remaining matchup on the schedule that they truly cared about, while the Tampa Bay Lightning, who still appear to be the best team out East, played well in Saturday’s win.
Since the Olympic break the Oilers have allowed only 3.23 xGA/60, and 26.81 shots against per 60. Though their 6-6-1 mark is not impressive, the underlying results suggest they are starting to clean things up defensively, especially as they have played against a tough slate of opponents in that span.
Jason Dickinson and Connor Murphy both fared well while handling extremely tough shutdown minutes for a poor Chicago Blackhawks side this season and do appear to be sharp additions, while having assistant coach Paul Coffey back in the fold also should continue to pay dividends.
The fact that they have been playing at a higher level defensively of late has been masked by a team save percentage of .858, which is the lowest mark of any team since the restart. Tristan Jarry will make his first start since March 12th in this matchup, and will hopefully look sharper after being awarded two weeks to try and reset.
Utah has been in strong form recently, with a record of 5-3-2 over the last 10 games. It plays a fundamentally sound defensive game at even strength, and receives strong play in goal from both Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek.
While Utah has exhibited a more well-rounded game than Edmonton, it’s offensive play has been more modest. The Mammoth hold a 51.23% expected goal share over the last 10 games and have generated only 2.77 xGF/60 at even strength. Their power play holds a success rate of just 14.3% in that span.
While this will be an embarrassing selection for me to lose because the general contention in the hockey world right now is that the Oilers are a train wreck, a price of +115 to get the Oilers in a spot where their urgency should be at it’s highest does appear appealing given that they do still appear to have some advantages relative to the Mammoth.
Leg 2: Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110 as a straight)
Over the last 10 games, Bouchard has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal seven times and averaged 5.4 shot attempts per game. While his recent time-on-ice, attempt rates, and hit rates are all encouraging points relative to a price of -110 for over 2.5 shots on goal, there are some minor details that make me believe this is a specifically good time to back Bouchard in this market.
Bouchard is set to play alongside Jake Walman at even strength in this matchup. Walman has had a really disappointing season, but at his best he is a quality offensive defender, and dropping Mattias Ekholm to the second pairing likely points to the direction that Edmonton hopes to lean on the top pairing mainly to generate offence in this matchup.
Bouchard has had 20 shot attempts during the first three games of Leon Draisaitl’s absence, and it does seem likely that his shot from the top will continue to be used more heavily on the Oilers’ top power play, with Draisaitl’s low one-timer no longer an option.
Leg 3: Matthew Savoie Over 0.5 Points (+125 as a straight)
Savoie has put up 10 points in 13 games since the Olympic break and is currently in a much greater role for production, as he will skate on the top line alongside Connor McDavid and Vasily Podkolzin in this matchup, as well as on the Oilers’ elite top power-play unit.
Head coach Kris Knoblauch has often dropped skaters such as Savoie further down the lineup card in-game this season, but it seems much less probable that will be the case Tuesday with Draisaitl sidelined, particularly in a game-script where we are counting on a smooth outing from the Oilers.
Savoie has meaningful offensive upside, and the fact that he is playing alongside the best skater in the NHL does not seem to be garnering enough weight, given that he is still priced at +125 to record a point.
You could spice the parlay up by adding McDavid to record over 1.5 points, but it’s Savoie’s point prop that looks to be the best single bet, and we should keep it simple and lean only on the edge that appears to be provided by a long price of +125 for Savoie to record a point.
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