The hype surrounding the NHL Trade Deadline can often get a little out of hand and, in particular, the day-of broadcasts are often fairly dull. But at a minimum, this year’s trade deadline and the days leading up to it should be quite interesting, leaving little time for hockey bettors to solidify their Stanley Cup betting strategies. There are a few more teams with salary cap space to make meaningful moves than usual and potentially skaters who are more than a pure rental that may be on the move.
Generally, this is also the last real opportunity to get Stanley Cup outright prices in at respectable numbers at the best NHL betting sites, especially if you are able to jump the market either before a significant deal is made or in the minutes immediately following it. In this article, I’ll outline teams that may provide value prior to likely moves and touch on some general strategic principles.
Search for value
The first thing bettors should do ahead of the trade deadline is familiarize themselves with what the outright prices were prior to notable trades being made. Doing so provides a baseline to help see if adjustments have already been made to a move, and use that baseline to help guide personal evaluations.
For instance, the Edmonton Oilers were priced at +1200 to win the Stanley Cup prior to acquiring Connor Murphy on Monday. They are now down to +1100. Oddsmakers are therefore suggesting Murphy’s acquisition increased the Oilers’ chances of winning it all by 0.64%; that mark is a little on the low end for me, but it is important to consider that most contending teams will move for a veteran rental or two, so generally it’s more important to try and zero in on locking in bets on teams that managed to acquire high impact skaters, which tends to be more rare this time of year.
As always with outright betting, it’s important to keep the most likely playoff paths in mind when analyzing prices. The Dallas Stars’ and Minnesota Wild’s prices do look quite high relative to the strength of those teams, but the two are a near lock to face off in the first round, while the winner will then likely take on the Cup-favourite Avalanche. This concept is important to consider when analyzing moves at the deadline.
Edmonton Oilers to win the Stanley Cup
Current Stanley Cup Outright Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Stanley Cup |
|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | +300 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +400 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +550 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +850 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +1100 |
| Dallas Stars | +1600 |
| Minnesota Wild | +1800 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +3000 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +3000 |
| Florida Panthers | +3500 |
| Utah Mammoth | +3500 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +4000 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +5000 |
| Washington Capitals | +5000 |
| New York Islanders | +5000 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +5000 |
| Ottawa Senators | +6000 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +6000 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +7500 |
| Boston Bruins | +15000 |
Will Robert Thomas Be Traded?
It’s entirely possible the Blues may not find a deal they believe is fair for Thomas, and it’s difficult to project where the star centre may land. The asking price is reportedly three pieces equivalent in value to a first-round pick. That tall asking price could mean if Thomas is moved, it’s more likely to be to a team such as the Utah Mammoth, Buffalo Sabres, or Detroit Red Wings, who are more well-situated to be the top bidder than many full-fledged contenders.
Realistically, it seems quite difficult to speculate where Thomas may go if he is dealt with much accuracy with the information currently available. But I do believe touching on this provides value; he is without a doubt the most impactful skater believed to be on the market ahead of the deadline and one of the few skaters out there that will significantly shift the markets.
So while I think it’s difficult to pick a team worth zeroing in on currently based on the potential acquisition of Thomas, there is typically a short window open where you can lock in bets on a team that just acquired an impact skater.
A team like Utah or Buffalo would swing from a very fringe contender to a team legitimately in the mix if it acquired Thomas. If you see the news break and can still lock in around 35-1 on the Mammoth or Sabres, it would be wise to do so, and the same logic applies to any other teams.
Buffalo Sabres to win the Stanley Cup
Who Holds Value in the Central Division?
As we touched on above, the path a given side will play is very crucial to the calculation of their outright betting price. For many NHL observers, the Oilers’ outright price always seems a little shocking, but oddsmakers believe that they have a much greater chance of winning at least two rounds than teams that are arguably more formidable.
This debate is most notable when we look at the three-headed monster atop the Central Division with the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars.
The Avalanche are undoubtedly the best team in the NHL, but at this point in time backing them to win the Cup at +300 looks to be a clear pass. While Colorado will reportedly be busy ahead of the deadline, both the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are well-situated to make significant additions, and it will be surprising if the Avs are able to make a move that is so impactful it counteracts the additions of their division rivals.
Best Bet: Dallas Stars to win outright (+1600)
Dallas Stars to win the Stanley Cup
As noted, considering a team’s path to the Stanley Cup is critical when evaluating if a price provides value. In the first two rounds, the Stars are likely to face Minnesota and Colorado. The concern here is obvious and not lost upon me.
Still, a price of +1600 appears to be a strong enough discount to bet on the Stars winning it all currently, considering that they are at worst a top-four team in the NHL and are well-situated to make some big moves at the deadline. While the first two rounds are daunting, they could easily be a heavy favourite in the Western Conference Final and have a 50-50 shot in the final.
The Stars sit second in the league with a record of 37-14-9, rank third in goal differential, and rank first in expected goal share since January 1st. As the team has received full salary cap relief from Tyler Seguin’s contract, they have $7.4 million in cap space ahead of the deadline, barring any cap-clearing moves.
They do not own their 2026 first-round pick (dealt away for Mikko Rantanen) but the Stars’ prospect pool is generally still ranked near the middle of the league. Given that the NHL lineup is chock full of truly elite talents, GM Jim Nill should feel comfortable in dealing prospects as needed.
Each of the three Central Division powerhouses is reportedly in on Nazem Kadri. The Stars should have a solid chance of winning the bidding war, which would create an important two-way swing for the team and drive down their outright price significantly.
Even if the Stars do lose out on Kadri, Nill has mainly proven to be a sharp GM in recent years, and it seems reasonable to have faith that he will acquire an impact skater to help fill the $7-million hole left by Seguin.
Given how excellent the Stars have been this season, and that it’s easier for them to add than other contenders, they are one team I’m willing to lock in to win the Cup prior to the deadline at a price of +1600.
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