In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down two NHL player prop picks that provide value at online sportsbooks on March 17.
With another split on Monday’s card, we enter Tuesday’s slate at +14.91 units on the season across 145 selections. Tuesday’s guide features bets on presumptive Calder Trophy winner Matthew Schaefer in an excellent spot, and Carter Verhaeghe in a position for more offensive opportunities due to injuries.
Check out my best NHL player prop bets for March 17 below and tail my picks at any of the top NHL betting sites in Canada.
Matthew Schaefer Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -140
Schaefer over 2.5 SOG
We outlined Schaefer to record over 2.5 shots on goal on March 4th, and at the time, the price was +110. Though the disparity between the price of this bet two weeks ago and what is Tuesday suggests the value is not what it once was, -140 actually appears very livable in this specific spot.
Schaefer will reportedly have hundreds of friends and family members in the building, as the Hamilton, Ontario native will play in Toronto for the first time. While the narrative that he may have some extra jump in Tuesday’s matchup is appealing, a more important part of our strategy lies in the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs are a notably slow side that has allowed a ton of shots to defenders o late.
Over the last 10 games, Toronto has allowed 10.5 shots against per game versus defencemen and 34.67 shots against per 60. Schaefer should get plenty of touches in the offensive zone in this matchup, and his ability to jump up in the attack off the rush should also prove effective.
Schaefer has averaged 8.2 shot attempts per game over the last 10 matchups and recorded over 2.5 shots on goal six times. Although -140 is on the juicier side relative to the average prop we outline in these guides, but it seems to be a strong spot to lay the juice, though backing Schaefer to record over 3.5 shots on goal at +182 is also an option and likely holds a similar expected value.
Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -120
Verhaeghe over 2.5 SOG
Due to some horrible injury luck and shaky goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky, it’s now a foregone conclusion that the Florida Panthers will miss the postseason. They will limp into Tuesday’s date with the last-placed Vancouver Canucks with their worst list of absences to this point, which is arguably a blessing in disguise at this point given that those absences should mean a notably high pick.
Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand, Seth Jones, Jonah Gadjovich, and Uvis Balinskis currently join Aleksander Barkov on the sidelines, while Sam Bennett is day-to-day. Due to those absences, Verhaeghe will remain on the Panthers’ top power-play unit, and to this point we have had success targeting his shot props on occasions where his role is elevated.
When the Panthers have been at closer to full strength, Verhaeghe has generally not been on the top power-play unit this season. Over the previous two games, he’s had three shots on goal on the man advantage, so the difference does appear noteworthy.
Despite the absences from the lineup, Verhaeghe also still seems to be situated in a solid role at even strength alongside Evan Rodrigues and Mackie Samoskevich. In a small sample of 19.2 minutes, the trio holds an 85.2% expected goal share and has generated 71.94 shot attempts per 60. To look towards a larger sample of play, Verhaeghe and Rodrigues have also controlled play quite heavily when they were skating alongside Sam Reinhart prior to his injury.
As you would expect, the Canucks are not good defensively, having allowed 29.66 shots against per 60 and 3.76 xGA/60 over the last 10 games.
Verhaeghe should be a safe bet to play close to 20 minutes in this game due to the absences from Florida’s lineup, and in those minutes he should likely manage a fair share of chances on target in this favourable matchup.
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