NHL Player Prop Picks For March 4

In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down two NHL player prop picks that provide value at online sportsbooks on March 4.

Thanks to our guy Egor Chinakhov, we bounced back with a winning night on Tuesday to move to +15.03 units on the season with these player prop articles. Though it is a light NHL slate Wednesday with only five games, you can back these two player prop picks with confidence.

Braeden Bowman Anytime Goal-Scorer: +350

Due to Mark Stone’s absence from the lineup, Bowman is currently skating on the Vegas Golden Knights’ top line alongside Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev, as well as on the team’s top power-play unit. In Tuesday’s matchup versus the Buffalo Sabres, Bowman hit the post in the first period after Jack Eichel found him on a two-on-one and also fired one off the crossbar in the final minute of regulation.

It’s fair to offer some criticism towards Bowman’s inability to finish any of his quality looks Tuesday, close or not. Still, the number of high-quality chances that he was on the end of was quite encouraging, and he generally has shown decent finishing ability this season in shooting 13.8%.

While Bowman only has eight goals in 44 games this season, he’s generally been outside of the top six and off the top power-play unit. He’s averaged 13:56 of time-on-ice this season but played 18:15 Tuesday with Stone sidelined.

The Knights’ top line combination of Ivan Barbashev-Eichel-Bowman has played to a 58.6% expected goal share and was quite threatening on Tuesday, even if Bowman’s inability to finish was a key concern.

The Knights’ power play is also quite strong, having succeeded on 25.4% of opportunities this season, and though Bowman is far from the player Stone is, his placement on the top unit greatly helps his chances to build on his total of eight goals.

As this is a back-to-back, bettors are unable to confirm that Bowman will remain in the same role in Wednesday’s matchup. That is my main concern regarding this play, but this number seems likely to hold throughout the day at this point, and therefore it should be fine to just wait until warmups to make sure head coach Bruce Cassidy does not shake things up.

Matthew Schaefer Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +110

For a lighter skater grinding his way through the regular season for the first time while playing massive minutes, wear-and-tear was a concern for the presumptive Calder Trophy winner. But based on Schaefer’s first three games following the Olympic break, it seems fair to speculate that the layoff was helpful for him to prepare for the stretch run.

Though the entirety of Schaefer’s rookie campaign has been incredible, the level of play that we have seen immediately following the Olympic layoff has still been hard to fathom. Schaefer has put up four goals and an assist in the first three games since the break, effectively ending any chance that he will not win the Calder.

In those three games he’s averaged 9.66 shot attempts per game. While generally speaking, shot attempts from a defender are less likely to reach the target, that’s still an eye-popping total given that he is priced at +110 to record three shots in a favourable matchup Wednesday.

The Anaheim Ducks have allowed 28.75 shot attempts per 60 this season. They are by no means a dominant defensive team and have found success in a high-event style of play and also have been receiving strong play in goal from Lukas Dostal.

This game is priced as a pick’em and is not expected to be a blowout, so Schaefer should receive his typically high usage in most game scripts, but should cause defensive problems for the Ducks whose in-zone coverage is still shaky at best.

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