NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For Nov. 20

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee games from Thursday’s 12-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Oilers vs Lightning Over 6.5 goals: +100

Following four straight horrific defensive performances, head coach Kris Knoblauch will certainly be hammering home the need for his side to author a better defensive game Thursday versus a potent Tampa Bay Lightning side. However, that’s probably been the main talking point all week for the Edmonton Oilers, and it just does not seem like they have the answers right now.

I’ve personally been reluctant to downgrade the Oilers too significantly this season, which has been a missed opportunity, as other bettors have surely done quite well fading a team that was the oddsmakers’ consensus preseason Western Conference favourite.

Edmonton has started slowly in each of the previous two seasons, and there really is not much incentive to finish high in the standings given the parity in the league, the divisional playoff bracket, and the fact that home-ice advantage has been a myth come the postseason dating back to 2018.

It seems that we are now at the point where it’s fair to say the Oilers’ defensive struggles come down to more than a lack of urgency. Key defenders such as Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, and Brett Kulak are playing their worst hockey in years, and the bottom six is being heavily outchanced.

Edmonton’s overall defensive structure has looked much worse, and it’s appearing likely that the loss of assistant coach Paul Coffey is more significant than was once expected. Over the last eight games, the Oilers have allowed 4.87 goals against per game and allowed 3.90 xGA/60.

The Oilers have found success with their goaltending tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard in the previous two seasons, but the difference was that they were the most underrated team defensively in the NHL, which helped mask that concern to some extent.

Pickard is expected to start tonight’s game, and while Skinner has not been great, he’s still outperformed Pickard significantly this season. Pickard holds a -2.7 GSAx and .830 save percentage in seven appearances this season.

While the Oilers’ game at both ends of the ice has been far from convincing, it’s still extremely difficult to entirely shut down an offence featuring Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. While the team certainly wasn’t hoping to offer both McDavid and Draisaitl extreme usage prior to the playoffs this season, that luxury is going out the window now that they are in desperate need of points in any fashion.

Dating back to the start of the last season, the Lightning have been an elite defensive team, but they present a much more livable matchup for Edmonton’s top stars to produce with Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak both listed as day-to-day and Ryan McDonaugh on the IR.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Oilers will hold the Lightning’s quality offence to a notably low total, but they still have the offensive firepower to hang around in any matchup, and at this point we may see playoff-type usage from McDavid and Draisaitl.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Blue Jackets moneyline odds	-115
Maple Leafs moneyline odds	-105
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Similar to Tuesday’s matchup versus the St. Louis Blues, the Maple Leafs opened as -125 favourites in this matchup but are now slight underdogs at -105. Those who follow me in the Action Network App will have seen that I liked the Blue Jackets at the opening prices, but Columbus’ current price of -115 looks fair.
• With Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Anthony Stolarz, Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Scott Laughton, and Nicolas Roy all sidelined on Tuesday, the Leafs were able to grind out a 3-2 overtime win over the Blues. Knies is the only Leafs skater that seems to have a legitimate chance of returning to the lineup in Thursday’s matchup.
• For the first two periods of Tuesday’s matchup, the Leafs looked sharper defensively, but once the Blues started to press more aggressively, many of the issues we have typically seen this season from Toronto’s blue line became an issue once again.
• In an extremely crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Blue Jackets have kind of flown under the radar recently with a record of 4-4-2 in their last 10 games. They hold a 51.87% expected goal share in that span and have generated 3.64 xGF/60.
• These teams met on October 29th in Columbus, and the Blue Jackets won 6-3.

New Jersey Devils @ Florida Panthers

Devils moneyline odds	+125
Panthers moneyline odds	-150
Game total	Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Dougie Hamilton, Connor Brown, and Evgenii Dadonov all returned to the Devils’ lineup on Tuesday, and the team played one of their worst games of the season. Their additions should certainly prove beneficial long-term, but a lack of continuity did seem to be a problem on Tuesday versus the Lightning.
• The Devils will still remain without two key pieces in Jack Hughes and Brett Pesce, but the Panthers certainly won’t feel any sympathy with Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Luostarinen, Dmitry Kulikov and Tomas Nosek all sidelined.
• The Panthers have stabilized with a 6-3-1 stretch of play and hold a 54.18% expected goal share in that span. Head coach Paul Maurice’s side has started to look more like the defensive juggernaut we are used to seeing, despite all of the absences from the lineup.
• I outlined why Mackie Samoskevich was a good bet to record three or more shots on goal at +195 ahead of Monday’s matchup versus the Canucks, after the talented young winger was elevated onto the top line, and he came through with four shots on target. The Devils are a much better defensive team than the Canucks, but backing Samoskevich to record over 2.5 shots on goal once again remains enticing given that it is still priced at +195.

Washington Capitals @ Montreal Canadiens

Capitals moneyline odds	+115
Canadiens moneyline odds	-135
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• My personal opinion is that the Capitals look like a team to buy on right now. However, this is a really tough spot, as they will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back versus a Canadiens side that has lost four straight and will be out to extract some revenge for last season’s playoff elimination.
• The Capitals’ game has looked quite sharp recently, and they have rightfully earned a record of 3-1-1 as a result. Their even-strength game continues to look quite fundamentally strong, but a lack of finish and horrid special teams have masked that strength. The Capitals’ power play has been largely overrated in recent years, but it seems logical to believe that Washington’s penalty kill will continue to find more success going forward.
• I noted ahead of Monday’s matchup versus the Los Angeles Kings that viewing Charlie Lindgren because of his poor surface-level stats in a small sample size this season was foolish, and he made that take look sharp in stopping 30 of 31 shots faced. Lindgren has been a better-than-average second option over the last two seasons, and his play has looked perfectly fine this season despite his poor stat lines. He is expected to get the start in tonight’s matchup.
• Samuel Montembeault has been outperformed by rookie Jakub Dobes this season, but as Dobes has also fallen on hard times, Montembeault will get the start in this important matchup. In his last five appearances Montembeault holds an .878 save percentage.

Seattle Kraken @ Chicago Blackhawks

Kraken moneyline odds	-105
Blackhawks moneyline odds	-115
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Blackhawks head coach Jeff Blashill made what proved to be a sharp decision starting backup Arvid Soderblom versus the lowly Calgary Flames Tuesday evening, as the team earned a win while Spencer Knight rested. Knight would arguably be a deserving Vezina winner if the season ended today, as he leads the league with a +14.7 GSAx rating in 13 games.
• If you’re not into expected metrics, Knight’s surface-level stats are also incredible. He’s led what still appears to be a below-average team to a record of 7-3-3, with a .924 save percentage and 2.42 GAA. It’s very hard to hang around the Vezina race on a lesser team because voters have proven to not put much weight into grading shot quality faced, but Knight looks live at 15-1 to win the Vezina.
• Despite their strong results this season, both of these teams have still been outchanced quite heavily on average. The Kraken have been particularly poor of late, with a 44.89% expected goal share over the last 10 games.
• Joey Daccord returned to action for the Kraken on Tuesday, which I thought was an unlucky break for our best bet on the Red Wings to win in regulation, but actually proved beneficial as Daccord was not overly sharp. He should still prove to be a significant upgrade over Seattle’s other options, but if his play is to remain below average moving forward, the Kraken look to be arguably the NHL’s most obvious regression candidate.
• The Kraken bested the Blackhawks, 3-1, in Seattle on November 3rd. The Kraken hold highly significant home-and-road splits so far this season, as they are 6-1-3 at home compared to a mark of 3-4-2 on the road.

New York Rangers @ Colorado Avalanche

Rangers moneyline odds	+175
Avalanche moneyline odds	–210
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• There is simply no disputing that the Avalanche have been the best team in the NHL this season. On top of holding the best record, they rank first in goals scored per game average and goals against average, and are on top of the league in expected goal share. They hold a +9 goal differential during their current three-game homestand.
• The Rangers have probably been slightly better than their 10-9-2 record suggests, based on their strong defensive play and well-structured game at even strength. The question for me is, what are the team’s realistic avenues to improve? Head coach Mike Sullivan has clearly revamped their defensive game in a good way, but for New York to be an overly formidable side it will need greater production, and J.T. Miller finding a much higher gear has to be viewed as the most obvious angle to offensive improvement.

Dallas Stars @ Vancouver Canucks

Stars moneyline odds	-140
Canucks moneyline odds	+120
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

• As we have discussed in numerous recent slate breakdowns, the market generally seems to be low on the Stars right now despite their 6-2-2 record over the last 10 games. Dallas opened at -155 in this matchup, but has ticked down to -140, and we have seen similar movement in several of its recent matchups.
• The Stars are without a gigantic piece in Thomas Harley, who’s put up 10 points in 18 games this season while offering elite defensive play. His absence is undoubtedly a true needle-mover.
• Elias Pettersson has been in incredible form recently, and the Canucks desperately need him to keep it up given his $11.6 million AAV. Pettersson has racked up eight points over the last four games, and is now up to 19 points in 21 games this season. He’s receiving arguably the toughest usage in the NHL considering his linemates and quality of competition.
• The Canucks return home after posting a 1-1-1 record on the dreaded swing through Carolina and Florida.
• Jason Robertson has recorded eight goals and 12 points during a five-game point streak. He is priced at +145 to score in Thursday’s matchup.

Ottawa Senators @ Anaheim Ducks

Senators moneyline odds	-125
Ducks moneyline odds	+105
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

• The Ducks will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after earning a 4-3 win on home ice over the Boston Bruins Wednesday. Anaheim is 7-1-0 at home this season.
• Petr Mrazek is expected to get the start in goal for Anaheim, and the gap between Mrazek and number-one option Lukas Dostal could prove to be quite significant this season. While Dostal has been excellent for a second consecutive year, Mrazek has been comparably shaky as last season in playing to a 3.72 GAA and .887 save percentage.
• Thomas Chabot and Brady Tkachuk remain on the IR for the Senators. Tkachuk is with the team as they begin a lengthy seven-game road trip, and is expected to return within the next couple of games.