NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For December 6

In this article, I’ll break down my two best bets from Saturday’s sizeable 12-game NHL slate based on Friday’s opening prices at online sportsbooks. All seven Canadian NHL teams will be in action Saturday, and we will also touch on game notes from those matchups.

Please keep in mind this guide was written Friday afternoon, which means there could be some relevant changes leading up to these matchups we touch on. While the odd time betting early can mean locking in a wager that loses value due to surprising lineup news, those surprises can go both ways, and in general betting strong prices early will always be a good strategy, which is what we will attempt to do in this piece.

NHL Best bets for December 6

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Florida Panthers – Blue Jackets moneyline: +145

Entering Saturday’s matchup, the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions rank 15th in the Eastern Conference in points percentage, having lost four consecutive matchups. When I wrote this piece on the Panthers finishing with under 106.5 points this season, my expectation was that complacency and fatigue could lead to a more modest than expected regular season.

A potential level of complacency is out the window for the Panthers in this matchup. I get it. With the potential of missing the playoffs become much more of a reality, the level of desperation from head coach Paul Maurice’s side should be quite high in his matchup.

Still, it does seem like the Panthers are getting a little too much credit from oddsmakers for all of their success over the past three seasons currently, which came while playing with a much more complete roster featuring two of the NHL’s better forwards being Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk.

With a record of 12-14 straight up, betting the Panthers to win every game this season would have led to a -21.7% ROI. That trend could change at any moment, but it works to my overlying point regarding Florida. In 15 games since the start of November, it holds a 49.73% expected goal share and holds a record of 7-7-1. They hold a -1 goal differential over the last 10 games and have actually played a fairly soft schedule in that span with just two matchups versus teams in notably strong form.

The Columbus Blue Jackets, meanwhile, look fairly respectable and look capable of hanging around in the wild card race. They hold a 50.67% expected goal share since the start of November and are 7-5-5 in that span. Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli, and Dmitri Voronkov provide a highly effective top unit, while the defence core quietly looks league average after being a clear weakness in previous seasons.

Jet Greaves has been excellent in goal for the Blue Jackets, with a +9.4 GSAx and .901 save percentage across 16 appearances.

The Panthers obviously still deserve to be favourites in this matchup, but a price of -170 seems to give too much credit to the team that they were last season, and at +145, I see value in backing a scrappy Blue Jackets side to extend Florida’s losing skid to five games Saturday.

Nashville Predators vs Carolina Hurricanes – Hurricanes puck line: +110

Contrary to our bet on the Blue Jackets at +145, I’m a little less sure on how the market movers will view this matchup, and it’s possible a price of +110 for the Hurricanes to cover the puck line still holds up until game time. Still, it’s a pick that I’m happy to outline early, as this looks like a good time to buy on one of the NHL’s most consistent regular-season sides.

There aren’t any overly significant “questionable” skaters from either side, and goaltending confirmations aren’t a big concern for me in this matchup, at least from the perspective of someone touting to bet Carolina early. It’s possible Brandon Bussi will start for the Hurricanes, and that’s perfectly fine by me, as Bussi holds a +5.4 GSAx rating and a .908 save percentage in eight appearances this season. Juuse Saros will likely start for the Predators, but if they do opt to go with Justus Annunen, we will likely gain some closing line value on this wager.

The Hurricanes have lost four of their last five games played, but it seems likely that this minor slump will simply prove to be a blip on the radar. They have been entirely dominant during Rod Brind’Amour’s tenure as head coach in the regular season, and on paper this season’s roster is still arguably the best unit that Brind’Amour has had to work with.

Over the last 10 games, the Hurricanes hold a 56.51% expected goal share and have generally done what they always do, in playing at a breakneck pace in all three zones using a furious forecheck and tremendous back pressure to dominate possession.

The Predators have had a minor upswing since captain Roman Josi returned to the lineup and were able to earn a 2-1 overtime victory over the Florida Panthers in the first game of their road trip to make it two straight. Still, their current roster makeup looks entirely unconvincing, and as has often been the case over the last two seasons, oddsmakers still seem to be giving them too much credit entering this matchup.

Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault have both been tremendous skaters throughout the majority of their respective careers, but are no longer impactful skaters in even-strength play, which has been a key reason the Predators have been overvalued over the last two years.

Over the last 15 games, the Predators hold a 48.14% expected goal share and finished scoring chances off at a below-average rate. For what has become a 109-game sample dating back to the start of last season, the Predators have finished chances off at a below-average rate, and it seems quite apparent that their current offensive process is not likely to lead to better-than-average results, even if their control of the overall run of play isn’t too horrid.

Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Canadiens moneyline odds	+115
Maple Leafs moneyline odds	–135
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 goals (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The third meeting of the season between these bitter rivals. They have split the first two meetings, with the Canadiens winning the most recent meeting 5-2 in Montreal on November 22nd, a game in which the Leafs were without numerous key skaters.
• Since the meeting between these sides on November 22nd, the Maple Leafs have gotten healthier and have started to right the ship with wins in four of their last five games. However, Joseph Woll’s recent dominance has been a key part of the Leafs’ turnaround, and Woll is likely to miss this game with a lower-body injury.
• As a result, Dennis Hildeby is expected to play. Hildeby has played quite well in a small sample this season with a +5.2 GSAx and .919 save percentage across seven appearances.
• The Canadiens have confirmed that Jakub Dobes will start in goal in this matchup, which makes sense as this is obviously an important game and he has outperformed Samuel Montembeault quite significantly with a +1.6 GSAx and .891 save percentage in 14 appearances this season.

St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators

Blues moneyline odds	+125
Senators moneyline odds	–150
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 goals (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• It’s been a highly disappointing season for the Blues, whose struggles at times have revolved around receiving league-worst goaltending from Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. However, goaltending certainly wasn’t the issue in Thursday’s 5-2 loss versus a heavily depleted Boston Bruins side, which was a downright embarrassing showing.
• Blues top forward Robert Thomas is listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup, and a potential absence from Thomas would certainly move the needle from a handicapping perspective.
• The Senators are 5-5-0 over their last 10 games and are 6-4-2 on home ice this season. Their defensive metrics continue to suggest they are one of the NHL’s better defensive teams, but Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen have combined for the fourth-worst save percentage in the NHL this season.

Utah Mammoth vs Calgary Flames

Mammoth moneyline odds	-105
Flames moneyline odds	–115
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 goals (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Mammoth will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back in this matchup, which is obviously a key reason they are currently slight underdogs.
• The Flames are 5-4-2 on home ice this season, having struggled on the road, where they have already played eight more matchups. Calgary held a record of 23-12-6 on home ice last season, and does seem to hold a fairly legitimate home-ice advantage.
• To the dismay of much of the fanbase, the Flames are 5-3-2 over their last 10 games and have pulled out of last place in the NHL as a result, though they have played two more games than the Vancouver Canucks as of Friday afternoon.

Minnesota Wild vs Vancouver Canucks

Wild moneyline odds	-135
Canucks moneyline odds	+115
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 goals (-110)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• Oddsmakers essentially took a blatant stance in saying the Wild’s current process wasn’t as dominant as their recent results suggested on Thursday, in pricing the Wild as only -115 favourites over the Calgary Flames.
• The Wild are 11-2-2 over their last 15 games and hold a team save percentage of .943 in that span. They rank 16th in expected goal share in that span and have generated only 3.06 xGA/60 in that span.
• It’s indisputable that the Wild have played a sharp defensive game during their 15-game tear, but the greater concern is the lack of quality chances at the other end of the ice. Chances are their team save percentage will trend downwards, and at that point their modest offensive play could lead to more modest results.
• Jesper Wallstedt is expected to start this game after resting in Calgary. On a per-game basis, Wallstedt has been the best starter in the NHL this season, with a +10.1 GSAx rating and .944 save percentage in 10 appearances.
• The Canucks will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back in this matchup. As Kevin Lankinen has been confirmed as Friday’s starter and Thatcher Demko is injured, this start will likely fall to third stringer Nikita Tolopilo. Tolopilo holds a +1.3 GSAx and .892 save percentage in two NHL appearances this season, and a .908 save percentage in six AHL starts this season.

Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers

Jets moneyline odds	+165
Oilers moneyline odds	–200
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 goals (-110)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• Prior to the Jets’ matchup versus the Buffalo Sabres Friday night, they are just 1-5-1 since the start of Connor Hellebuyck’s current absence. They have played a tough schedule during that span, and received lesser play in goal from Eric Comrie and Thomas Milic, though they have played respectably but are just simply not at the level of Hellebuyck.
• Following an embarrassing 8-3 loss on home ice, the Oilers have played quite well in each of the following three matchups, though the two wins came over the Seattle Kraken who appear to be in very poor form.
• The Jets have confirmed that Comrie will start Friday’s matchup, so it seems likely that Milic will get the start in this matchup. Milic played well in his NHL debut versus the Carolina Hurricanes, but was ultimately tagged with a fairly unconvincing stat line on a night where the team was heavily outplayed. Milic has been exceptional at the AHL level this season with a .921 save percentage and 2.14 GAA in nine appearances.