Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Friday’s massive 15-game slate.
Best bet-Matt Coronato over 2.5 shots on goal: +120
Matt Coronato over 2.5 shots on goal
Coronato has recorded 48 shots over the last 10 games and gone over 2.5 shots on goal nine times. There’s a lot to like about riding with those trends in Friday’s matchup versus the Florida Panthers.
From simply a goal-scoring perspective, Coronato was expected to be the Flames’ most productive skater this season. He possesses the best shot on the team, and was generally thought to be one of the few Flames skaters that might take steps forward this season in his third NHL campaign.
Looking at it from a broader perspective, it’s not surprising that a skater that is expected to be a pure goal-scorer playing on a team’s top line and top power play has offered up the kind of volume that we have seen of late. Coronato has averaged 5.8 attempts per game over the last 10 matchups and averaged 18:01 of ice time in that span.
Part of the reason for the strong number of +120 is the perception that the Florida Panthers aren’t an ideal matchup for opposing shooters to go over their lines, though for a fairly solid sample of play that has not been the case. They have allowed the 14th-most shots against per 60 over the last 10 games, suggesting they are a reasonable matchup, and we were able to bet into this logic effectively on Monday with Roman Josi.
Best bet-Kent Johnson over 0.5 points: -105
Kent Johnson over 0.5 points
After recording 57 points in 68 games last season, former fifth overall pick Kent Johnson has gotten off to a rough start to the year, tallying just five points in 23 games. He also enters this matchup in the midst of an ugly eight-game pointless streak. Those statistics obviously won’t have bettors flocking to back him to record a point in Friday’s matchup, but there is a pretty strong case that this is a good time to buy low on a young talent that showed plenty of offensive upside last season.
The first thing I’ll note is that I would pass on playing this prop if Kirill Marchenko is to draw back into the lineup, and at the time of writing, Marchenko’s status is unclear. I know that it is a little irritating to write up a prop with that asterisk, but given my belief in this play, if Marchenko is sidelined, I still wanted this bet to be included in this piece.
During Marchenko’s absence, Johnson has skated on the Blue Jackets’ top line and top power play, averaging 18:01 of ice time. Though they didn’t get rewarded with any points on a night where Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll was brilliant, the Blue Jackets’ top line of Adam Fantilli, Dmitri Voronkov, and Johnson held a 74.3% expected goal share and generated 5.22 xGF/60.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been surprisingly strong defensively this season, but they do appear to be coming down to Earth in that regard. Over the last six games, the Penguins have allowed 3.16 xGA/60, and they have faced a notably soft slate of opposing offensive sides in that span.
Though it’s not shown yet this year, Johnson is a talented offensive skater who looked worthy of being a fifth overall selection last season. If remains in his current role, the production is going to come sooner than later, and at -105, we are getting a good number to bet that he breaks his slump in tonight’s matchup.
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