The Carolina Hurricanes will look to continue their pursuit of the Eastern Conference’s top seed Friday when they take on the Toronto Maple Leafs, the perfect NHL matchup for our featured same game parlay on March 20.
The Hurricanes are 10-4-1 over the last 15 games but, due largely to some shaky play in goal, have allowed 3.20 goals against per game in that span. They have been in excellent form offensively and will provide a tough test for a Leafs side that has routinely spent a ton of time playing in the defensive zone.
The Leafs are simply playing out the season at this point, with the main storyline surrounding the team being whether or not they can fall off badly enough so as not to surrender their first-round pick to the Boston Bruins. While their recent 2-1-1 run suggests they are still being honourable in playing to win, it could be one-way traffic in this matchup in terms of the overall run of play.
Our three-leg SGP holds a long price of +525 at the time of writing, and is eligible for a 30% same game parlay boost from our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
- Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline (-220 as a straight)
- Mattias Maccelli Over 0.5 Points (-110 as a straight bet)
- Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Leafs/Hurricanes SGP
Leg 1: Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline (-220 as a straight)
With the Florida Panthers out of the equation, it’s entirely possible this could be the year the Hurricanes finally sneak out of the East, and they will certainly have a great chance of at least finding themselves in the conference final. They hold a +39 goal differential, the second-best expected goal share in hockey, and have taken steps forward relative to years past in terms of authoring more clinical offensive play.
However, their goaltending appears to be a legitimate concern, as they have allowed 3.50 goals against per game over the last 10 matchups. While I like Carolina’s chances of earning two points in this favourable matchup, its high goals-against average of late makes me believe it’s a good time to take a stab on this negatively correlated parlay.
While the Leafs have authored a pair of surprising wins recently, they are still 2-5-3 over the last 10 and hold a 41.23% expected goal share in that span. They have allowed 34.67 shots against per game in that span, and their recent wins over the Minnesota Wild, who are not in remotely good form relative to the rest of the season, and the Anaheim Ducks seem more likely to be outliers than anything meaningful.
Backing Carolina to win looks like a safe first leg, and by doing so, we greatly improve our payout due to the negative correlation with the following leg, backing Maccelli to record a point.
Leg 2: Matias Maccelli Over 0.5 Points (-110 as a straight)
A key reason that we never truly see skaters and teams intentionally lose games down the stretch, beyond pride, is that these are the professional livelihoods of each individual. That notion applies in particular to Macceli, who’s set to become an RFA at the end of the season.
Leafs fans rooting for a tank have certainly not been fans of Maccelli’s recent play. He’s tied for the team lead with nine points over the last 10 games, and is set to remain alongside William Nylander and John Tavares, as well as the top power play Friday. While the Leafs have plenty of flaws and Maccelli is not a true top-line talent, he’s had a strong offensive impact of late and is on a competitive top line alongside Nylander and Tavares.
The Hurricanes have struggled to keep the puck out of their net of late but have been in elite form offensively. It’s logical to conclude they can manage enough offence to win this game despite this leg guaranteeing Toronto scores at least one goal (and likely more).
Adding this leg pushes the parlay from +170 to +525, and that is an enticing adjustment considering that something like a 4-2 win for Carolina seems quite logical.
Leg 3: Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105 as a straight bet)
This is obviously a natural spot to target at least one Hurricanes shooter to go over their shot prop, given that no team in the league has allowed shots on goal at a comparable rate to the Maple Leafs recently. Oddsmakers are obviously aware of that fact and many of the Hurricanes shot props are much more juiced than usual, but a price of -105 appears to be a good number to buy low on Svechnikov following an abnormally low output of late.
While Svechnikov’s shot volume has been down of late, he still profiles as a pure goal-scorer who should get plenty of chances playing on a dominant top line and strong top power-play unit. He ranks second on the team with 25 goals and is arguably the best shooter on the team.
Carolina’s top line of Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis should create plenty of chances in this matchup, and despite his recent game log, a price of -105 for Svechnikov to record three shots on goal looks quite appealing in this highly favourable matchup.
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