Despite playing without several key pieces recently, the Anaheim Ducks have won seven straight games entering Monday’s exciting showdown with the Edmonton Oilers. Though the Ducks have been finding results where it matters recently, oddsmakers are low on their chances of shutting down Edmonton’s high-powered attack in this matchup, as Anaheim is currently priced at +220 to win with the total at 6.5, and heavily juiced to the over.
Bet365 is offering a “Super Boost” on Monday’s NHL matchup, boosting the price for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard to each record a point and two shots on goal from +115 to +200. As I have noted in many previous pieces, these boosts are mainly +EV and are used as a promotional tool.
These boosts will hold low limits for most users, but in general, they are worth playing to the max limit (as long as you are comfortable with the potential loss), as though it’s implied probability suggests it will lose 46% of the time, you will be paid out +200 if it is a winner.
So with that noted, let’s get into my personal same-game parlay for this matchup, which is also eligible for bet365’s 30% same-game parlay boost for Monday evening.
Our three-leg same-game parlay is +325 at the time of writing (prior to the 30% boost), targeting a comfortable Oilers win led by their dynamic duo. You could personally play around with the specifics and make some adjustments to my framework, but I do believe this is a good spot to ride the chalk and bet on a big game from the Oilers’ superstars.
- Edmonton Oilers -1.5
- Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points
- Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goalscorer
Ducks vs. Oilers Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Edmonton Oilers -1.5
Though the Ducks have been faring well where it counts of late, the underlying results have not been remotely convincing. In 12 games this month, the Ducks hold an expected goal share of 45.09% and have allowed 3.92 xGA/60.
Aside from an impressive, albeit lucky, win over the Colorado Avalanche last Wednesday, their winning streak has come mainly against a soft slate of opponents, and they were outplayed quite heavily by the lowly Calgary Flames Sunday evening.
Despite Lukas Dostal’s brilliant play this month, the Ducks have still allowed 3.33 goals against per game. However, the Ducks will likely have Ville Husso starting in goal in this matchup, given that Dostal started Sunday night and faced a hefty 35-shot workload.
Husso has played to a -2.8 GSAx rating and .888 save percentage across 11 appearances this season and holds a GAA of 3.08. Dostal has been a huge reason for the team’s recent success, and keeping the Oilers at bay with a much lesser goaltender in net could prove quite difficult.
Though consistency remains a concern for the Oilers, they have started to trend upwards in looking more like a legitimate contender for a third consecutive season. They hold a 57.17% expected goal share in the month of January, which is the second-best mark in the NHL.
Leg 2: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points
McDavid is in the midst of one of the best stretches of play of his entire career, which is certainly saying something for the surefire Hall of Famer. Over the last 26 games, he’s racked up 21 goals and 54 points and became the first skater to hit the 90-point mark Saturday with a five-point showing versus the Washington Capitals.
Out of those 26 games, McDavid has recorded over 1.5 points 16 times. As ridiculous as it seems to suggest there is value backing an NHL skater to record over 1.5 points at a price of -140 (straight bet odds of this leg), it’s fairly easy to suggest that is the case in a matchup where the Oilers are heavily favoured versus a suspect defensive side like the Ducks.
McDavid’s dominance over the last seven weeks has been aided by the returns of Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, as the three have formed one of the best even-strength units in the league, as has typically been true over the last several seasons. In 263.6 minutes together, they hold a 70.2% expected goal share and have scored 4.46 goals per 60 where it counts.
The Oilers’ power play has also been entirely dominant of late, having succeeded on 33.3% of opportunities over the last 20 games, and is obviously another area where McDavid will hopefully remain productive in Monday’s matchup.
Leg 3: Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goalscorer
After a week off to tend to a family illness, Draisaitl had a fairly quiet return to action last Thursday versus the Pittsburgh Penguins before recording three assists and four shots on goal in Saturday’s comeback win. Draisaitl has scored 16 goals in his last 14 games versus the Ducks, and this seems like a good spot to ride with that trend in backing him to tally his 26th goal of the season.
As noted, the Oilers’ power play has been extremely effective of late, and Draisaitl’s one-timer will always be the top option on the number-one unit. Edmonton’s second line of Vasily Podkolzin, Draisaitl and Andrew Mangiapane should also be able to generate plenty of scoring chances in this matchup versus a shorthanded Ducks side skating in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Over the last six games, Draisaitl has generated 3.11 individual goals and averaged seven shot attempts per game, and it seems likely to believe he will get his fair share of quality looks in Monday’s matchup.