Bet365 is offering a 30% same game parlay boost for Tuesday’s ten-game slate, and we’re excited to detail our three-leg same game parlay for Tuesday’s matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning below, which prices out at +370 at the time of writing.
Tuesday’s matchup between the Canadiens and Lightning should be a good one, as thanks to their current five-game winning streak, Montreal would have a semi-legitimate chance of stealing the Atlantic Division with a regulation win in this matchup. While the two points at hand are critical, this matchup may also be a preview of what would be a highly compelling Round One matchup, and offers a great chance for both sides to set the tone.
Bet365’s prop protect is among the many reasons it is our top-ranked online sportsbook, and the clause did save Monday’s parlay, as our leg on Cutter Gauthier was voided due to his first-period injury, allowing our legs on William Nylander to score and Toronto +1.5 to stand up for a reduced win.
- Over 5.5 Goals (-175 as a straight)
- Cole Caufield to Score (+155 as a straight)
- Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130 as a straight bet)
Canadiens vs. Lightning SGP
Leg 1: Over 5.5 Goals (-175 as a straight)
Generally I’m not interested in betting overs in this type of matchup, which should feature somewhat of a playoff feel between two divisional rivals. The Canadiens have been playing some notably high-event hockey of late though, even if some surprisingly excellent goaltending has masked that fact over the last three games.
Throughout their last ten games played, the Canadiens have allowed 3.86 xGA/60 and 28.75 shots against per 60. Their goaltending has been fairly average for the majority of the season, but in those ten games their goaltenders have combined for a .919 save percentage.
Goaltending is highly volatile, and while I’d agree that likely starter Jakub Dobes is a better goaltender than he showed during his struggles earlier on in the year, I’m not convinced the type of form we have seen recently is sustainable. The Lightning feature an elite top-six and excellent power play, and they should be able to hang up three or more on the Canadiens in this spot on home ice.
While the budding young Canadiens have room to grow defensively, they have a lot of skill up front and a defensive core that is well adept at helping to create offence. They have generated 3.84 xGF/60 over the last ten games and scored 3.30 goals per game where it counts, and I believe they can hang around in this matchup with a solid offensive performance.
Leg 2: Cole Caufield (+155 as a straight)
Oddsmakers continue to take a fairly blatant stance that the goal-scoring spree we have seen from Caufield in the final third of the season is unsustainable, given that the price for Caufield to score remains in the +140 range on a nightly basis. I’ve been very bullish in arguing why prices north of +140 for Caufield to score provide strong value, and to this point that stance has worked out extremely well.
Dating back to January 15th I’ve outlined Caufield to score countless times. While I get that reading similar takes is dull for readers and our editor, the case that Caufield can continue to score often enough to make those prices profitable remains very strong, and therefore continues to be included in the majority of my articles.
Caufield has scored on 29.4% of shots taken over a 25-game span. For as elite of a shooter as Caufield is, that mark is entirely unsustainable. However, the gap between scoring often enough to make a price of +155 (39% implied probability) and Caufield’s recent production is gigantic, and his chance creation continues to suggest he will score often enough to make this long of a price profitable.
Throughout the last 15 games, Caufield has averaged 0.56 individual expected goals per game and 3.33 shots on goal per game. Nick Suzuki has developed into an elite playmaker and helps maximize Caufield’s elite finishing ability, while Montreal’s top line has also been more effective dating back to March 7th when Juraj Slafkovsky was inserted back onto the unit.
The Lightning have allowed 3.50 goals against per game across 18 matchups since the Olympic break and 3.38 xGA/60. Andrei Vasilevskiy holds an .893 save percentage and 2.93 GAA in that span. So while it would be a reach to say the Lightning offer a better-than-average matchup, they certainly do not currently appear to be dominant enough defensively for Caufield to be priced at +155 to score.
Leg 3: Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130 as a straight)
In a matchup where we are hoping to see a fairly high-event, hotly contested game, it makes sense to include one of the Lightning’s top shooting threats to go over their shot prop, and a price of -130 for Guentzel to record over 2.5 shots on goal looks to be the top option.
Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens hold a 49.9% expected goal share and have allowed 29.75 shots against per 60. Though the process has worked for them, they have been far from a defensive juggernaut, and their in-zone coverage remains a concern.
Guentzel is one of the most intelligent skaters in the league and excels at finding open pockets of space in the offensive zone. He’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four straight matchups while averaging 5.5 shot attempts per game, and this seems to be a good matchup to bet on Guentzel managing at least three shots on goal once again.
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