The Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens will renew their storied rivalry on March 17 in what is arguably the most intriguing matchup out of the NHL’s nine-game slate, making it a perfect selection for our featured same game parlay.
The Canadiens currently sit one point ahead of the Bruins in the Eastern Conference standings, having played one less game. With the Ottawa Senators and Columbus Blue Jackets both in hot pursuit, it’s not out of the question that either side could still miss the playoffs, while with a notably strong run down the stretch, home-ice advantage in Round One would still be a slight possibility.
The Bruins have taken two of the first three matchups of the season between these sides, but the Canadiens appear to be in far better form currently and will have a scheduling advantage in this matchup with Boston playing the second half of a back-to-back.
Our three-leg parlay prices out at +663 at the time of writing, and is eligible for a 30% same game parlay boost from our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
- Montreal Canadiens Regulation Win (-105 as a straight bet)
- Juraj Slafkovsky Anytime Goal-Scorer (+200 as a straight bet)
- Nick Suzuki Over 0.5 Points (-330) as a straight bet)
Nick’s Habs/Bruins SGP
Leg 1: Montreal Canadiens Regulation Win (-105 as a straight bet)
Both sides will be playing for the third time in four nights in this matchup, but the Canadiens should still hold a fairly notable rest advantage given that they were off yesterday, and have not traveled since last Wednesday when they returned home from nearby Ottawa.
The first two games of the Bruins’ three-in-four stretch have not been remotely convincing, and I’d argue that squeezing three points out of its dates with the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils was fairly lucky.
Their defensive play was poor last night, as they allowed 34 shots on goal and a ton of quality chances versus a Devils side that has looked pretty flat offensively all season long. They have allowed 3.83 xGA/60 over the last 15 games, and will likely force Jeremy Swayman to handle a challenging workload in this matchup.
And while Boston has not defended well of late, its offensive play has also come down to earth, as has generally been expected for most of the campaign. It has scored 3.13 goals per game over the last 15 matchups and has scored three or fewer in four straight games.
And while in general I’m not a huge believer in home and road splits, as often their predictive value can be overrated, Boston’s 12-14-6 mark on the road is a concern.
Though the Bruins will have an edge in goal with Swayman set to face off against Jakub Dobes, that seems livable given the likelihood that the Canadiens outplay them by a fairly notable edge in this matchup.
At -105, there is value backing Montreal to win this critical matchup in regulation, and it sets up as a natural first leg to work alongside our legs involving a productive evening from the Canadiens’ high-powered top line.
Leg 2: Juraj Slafkovsky To Score (+200 as a straight bet)
After an entirely dominant showing at the Olympics for Slovakia, Slafkovsky has been in strong form since the restart of the season and has worked his way back onto the top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.
Slafkovsky has scored four goals over the last 12 games, and his output of quality scoring chances suggests that he could still easily have tallied a few more. He’s generated 6.96 individual expected goals throughout that span and has averaged five shot attempts per game.
In 344.9 minutes of play this season, the Slafkovsky-Suzuki-Caufield combination has scored 3.13 goals per 60, and outscored opponents 18-11. They have been particularly effective since being reunited on March 7th versus the Los Angeles Kings, and head coach Martin St. Louis will surely lean on them quite heavily Tuesday given the importance of the matchup.
Leg 3: Nick Suzuki Over 0.5 Points (-330 as a straight bet)
This is the only leg of the parlay which I will not be betting as a straight, but it does seem to be worth adding given it’s strong correlation to our previous two legs, as well as the fact that it pushes the price of our ticket while unlocking the 30% bonus for a three-leg parlay.
As we have outlined previously, the Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky combination has been in strong form, while Boston has quietly been in poor form defensively. Suzuki has put up 33 points over the last 25 games, and only failed to record a point six times. In a matchup where we are counting on Montreal winning in regulation and a goal from Slafkovsky, backing the Canadiens captain to record at least one point appears to be a safe final leg.
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