Super Bowl Odds Movement After NFL Free Agency: Biggest Risers & Fallers

It’s been a wild first few days of NFL free agency, with some of the biggest names in the sport on the move (or in the case of Maxx Crosby, on the move and returned to sender), leaving ripple effects across the league when it comes to the latest Super Bowl odds movement.

Below, we’ve compiled the biggest risers and fallers on the latest Super Bowl odds from the best NFL betting sites so you can see who’s made the most significant impact on their title chances, for better or worse.

Each of the Super Bowl contenders featured below has been evaluated based on changes in implied probability rather than on their outright market value. For example, the Los Angeles Rams moving from +950 to +700 is a 3% change in implied probability to win the Super Bowl, whereas the New Orleans Saints moving from +15000 to +8000 only equates to a 0.60% increase in their Super Bowl odds.

Biggest Super Bowl Odds Risers

Los Angeles Rams (+950 ⬆️ +700)

As already mentioned above, the Rams have made the biggest leap in their Super Bowl odds of any team in the NFL this offseason. Jumping up 3% in their implied probability to capture glory at Super Bowl 61, the Rams should be recognized as top contenders once again in 2026.

After coming up short in the lone competitive clash given to the Seattle Seahawks during their dominant Super Bowl run, the Rams have the talent, experience, and coaching to make their own run at the Lombardi Trophy next season.

In free agency, the Rams primary focus was on improving their depth at cornerback, something they certainly accomplished this offseason. Along with making a blockbuster deal with the Kansas City Chiefs in order to grab All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie, the Rams also added his former Chiefs teammate, Jaylen Watson to their roster.

Improving drastically at their lone weak spot on their roster, the Rams just became one of the most complete football teams in the Super Bowl hunt in 2026.

Currently slotted as the favourites to win it all by oddsmakers, the Rams are a great pre-season bet for any one lokoing to capitalize on the latest Super Bowl odds movement.

Buffalo Bills (+1200 ⬆️ +900)

Coming off yet another heartbreaking postseason defeat, the Buffalo Bills weren’t satisfied with sitting on their hands and feeling sorry for themselves this offseason; instead, they made major moves to improve their roster heading into the 2026 season. Increasing their opening Super Bowl odds by 2.3%, the Bills are the favourites to come out of the AFC next year.

Making major improvements on both sides of the football, the Bills have revitalized their roster this offseason. The Bills kicked things off by making a trade with the Chicago Bears to finally get quarterback Josh Allen a true number-one receiver by acquiring D.J. Moore. With the beginning of a potentially dangerous duo for the Bills offence, this could give the Bills the explosive edge they need to hang with the other top offences in the NFL.

Additionally, the Bills defence has been re-tooled for the better, with two-time Pro-Bowler edge-rusher Bradley Chubb joining the Bills Mafia, as well as safety C.J. Garnder-Johnson, and corner Dee Alford.

Not wanting to let their Super Bowl window close, the Bills should once again be viewed as top contenders in the AFC, as their impressive offseason moves have them slotted as the second biggest riser in the latest Super Bowl odds movement.

Baltimore Ravens(+1300 ⬆️ +1000)

Rounding out the top three risers in Super Bowl odds movement, the Baltimore Ravens have managed to bolster their odds, even after a botched trade for Maxx Crosby with the Las Vegas Raiders. In the offseason, the Ravens have managed to increase their Super Bowl odds by 1.85%.

After opening last season as Super Bowl favourites, the Ravens fell well short of the mark, missing the playoffs outright after failing to live up to expectations amid lacklustre play and injuries to key players, including quarterback Lamar Jackson. But, with a new Head Coach and improved roster, this may be the year the Ravens finally emerge from the AFC and into the Super Bowl.

While the Crosby trade didn’t work out, the Ravens were able to replace him with an equally dangerous pass-rusher in former division rival, Trey Hendrickson. An All-Pro talent, Hendrickson ranks only behind Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt in total sacks since 2020. Along with Hendrickson, the Flock also added former New England Patriots safety Jaylinn Hawkins coming off of a career-best season with the Pats.

With their horrendous defence from a year ago seemingly patched up, the Ravens are primed to get back to their dominant ways, with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Green Bay Packers (+1400 ⬇️ +1600)

In what has been an utter failure of an offseason thus far, the Green Bay Packers are tied for being the biggest faller in the latest Super Bowl odds movement. After looking like a dark horse contender in the NFC in 2025, the Packers have seen their opening odds drop by 0.80% since the beginning of free agency.

With All-Pro pass-rusher Micah Parsons likely to miss most, if not all, of next season, the Packers defence continued to take a hit after losing linebacker Quay Walker to the Raiders, and trading defensive end Rashan Gary to the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round pick. It wasn’t just the Packers defence that took a hit this offseason, either, as they saw the departure of top wide receiver Romeo Doubs to the Patriots, and offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins to the Browns.

In response, the Packers made minimal impact signings, such as adding defensive tackles Jason Hargrave and Jonathan Ford, as well as wide receiver Skyy Moore. With the losses outweighing the gains, it could be a mouldy season for the Cheeseheads heading into their 2026 campaign.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1400 ⬇️ +1600)

Another top NFC contender that saw their Super Bowl odds drop after a disappointing finish to its 2025 season, the Philadelphia Eagles also took a 0.80% dip in their Super Bowl odds during free agency.

While the Eagles did manage to secure a top free agent at cornerback in Riq Woolen, who is coming off a Super Bowl win with the Seahawks, the Eagles saw several top players leave the City of Brotherly Love this offseason. In the offseason, the Eagles have lost notable starters such as linebacker Nakobe Dean, EDGE Jaelan Phillips, and safety Reed Blankenship, leaving several holes in their defence that will need to be filled.

With their defence already streaky at best last year, relying on new starters to fill the void could prove costly for the Birds.

The Eagles offence largely remained untouched in the offseason, but after yet another drama-filled campaign last year, perhaps that’s not entirely for the best. With so many question marks looming around the Eagles roster construction, it’s apt for them to be one of the biggest fallers in the latest Super Bowl odds movement.

Detroit Lions (+1500 ⬇️ +1600)

Rounding out the biggest fallers in terms of their 2026 Super Bowl Odds, the Motor City is on a downward trajectory as the Detroit Lions have had a brutal offseason. Coming off a disappointing season, which saw them shockingly miss the playoffs, the Lions have lowered their Super Bowl odds by 0.50% in free agency.

One of the biggest reasons for the Lions recent resurgence in play over the last few seasons has largely been due to their elite offensive line play, something they won’t possess next season. Beginning with the losses of Frank Ragnow and Greg Zeitler in 2025, the core of their offensive front continued to erode this offseason, as Graham Glasgow and Taylor Decker have both moved on from the Lions.

Now reliant on Peneii Sewell to hold down the fort, the Lions biggest strength may be a weakness for them.

Needing to act smartly in the NFL Draft, their lacklustre offensive line could spell the beginning of the end for their NFC contention in Detroit.