With the start of the NFL season right around the corner, Canada Sports Betting takes a look at each division in football from a betting perspective to help you with your handicapping of season-long props.
This week, we take a look at the AFC East Division, which has been won in each of the past five seasons by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Oddsmakers at online sportsbooks are projecting the Bills will once again run away with the division.
However, the AFC East Division is also home to the New England Patriots, who have been engaged in a slow rebuild ever since Tom Brady retired. They should be greatly improved this season following a 4-13 campaign in 2024 and have an outside shot at a playoff spot out of the AFC.
The fate of the Miami Dolphins’ 2025 season hinges on the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, whose career has been derailed due to multiple concussions. Star wideout Tyreek Hill took a huge step back statistically in 2024, also casting a shadow of doubt on Miami’s season.
Lastly, the New York Jets appear to be in full rebuild mode heading into the 2025 season.
Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the four teams ready to compete in the AFC East Division!
Thanks for reading our NFL Divisional Preview Series! Be sure to check out our previews for all eight divisions as they become available!
AFC North – AFC South – AFC East – AFC West – NFC North – NFC South – NFC East – NFC West
Buffalo Bills to Win the Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl Odds: +650
To Win Conference Odds: +375
Division Odds: -310
Odds to Make Playoffs: -800
Season Win Total: Over 12.5 (+120), Under 12.5 (-150)
2024 record: 13-4 (lost in conference championship round)
Key Additions: WR Elijah Moore, WR Josh Palmer, EDGE Joey Bosa, EDGE Michael Hoecht, DT Larry Ogunjobi, CB Tre’Davious White
Key Subtractions: EDGE Von Miller, WR Amari Cooper, DL Jordan Phillips, CB Rasul Douglas
Most Important Game on the Schedule: Week 1 vs. Ravens. The Bills will start the season with a bang when they host the loaded Baltimore Ravens on the first Sunday Night Football primetime game of the year. If they can find a way to snatch a win in their season opener, they could open the season with a lengthy winning streak of six games with several contests scheduled against inferior opponents leading up to their Week 7 bye week.
Prop to Watch: Bills to win first seven games: +500. Having home-field advantage in Week 1 against the Ravens is huge for the Bills, and a big win against their conference foes could give them the momentum needed to roll over the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers. Buffalo has one of the easiest schedules in the league (.467 SOS) and should easily rack up wins early in the campaign.
Potential Breakout Player: WR Keon Coleman. Entering the second year of his rookie contract, Coleman is set to explode this year after recording 556 yards and four receiving touchdowns in his inaugural NFL season. He was third in team targets last season, but you can expect a sharp increase in his usage and production in 2025.
Betting Projection: With a favourable schedule and the reigning MVP calling the shots, the Bills are a real contender to win the conference at +375 odds. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Ravens can challenge them for this distinction, and this seems like the year Buffalo finally breaks through and makes a Super Bowl appearance.
Keon Coleman over 750.5 receiving yards
New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: +7500
To Win Conference Odds: +3500
Division Odds: +500
Odds to Make Playoffs: +140
Season Win Total: Over 8.5 (+100), Under 8.5 (-130)
2024 record: 4-13 (missed playoffs)
Key Additions: QB Josh Dobbs, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Mack Hollins, OT Morgan Moses, EDGE Milton Williams, CB Carlton Davis
Key Subtractions: QB Jacoby Brissett, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, CB Jonathan Jones
Most Important Game on the Schedule: Week 5 vs. Bills. The Patriots have some very winnable games early in the season (vs. Raiders, @ Dolphins, vs. Steelers, vs. Panthers), and it wouldn’t be surprising if they had a 2-2 or 3-1 record heading to Buffalo for their first real test of the campaign. Pulling off a huge upset in Week 5 would really boost their odds of making the playoffs.
Prop to Watch: Patriots to finish second in AFC East: +175. If the Patriots can finish close to their posted season win total of eight or nine games, it’ll very likely be good enough to slot in behind the Bills in the division. They have a favourable schedule this year and should take a nice step forward if their young players can take steps forward.
Potential Breakout Player: LB Keion White. The Patriots upgraded their defence this offseason, but they’ll be banking on the continued development of White, who led the team in QB hits (16) while finishing tied for first in sacks (5.0) and second in forced fumbles (2) last season.
Betting Projection: Patriots under 8.5 wins (-130). They’ll be improved, but there’s still work to do on both sides of the ball in order to get this team over .500 and really contend for the playoffs.
 | To win Super Bowl | To win division | To make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +650 | -310 | -800 |
| New England Patriots | +7500 | +500 | +140 |
| Miami Dolphins | +8000 | +700 | +225 |
| New York Jets | +25000 | +1800 | +475 |
Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl Odds: +8000
To Win Conference Odds: +3000
Division Odds: +700
Odds to Make Playoffs: +225
Season Win Total: Over 7.5 (-105), Under 7.5 (-115)
2024 record: 8-9 (missed playoffs)
Key Additions: QB Zach Wilson, RB Alex Mattison, TE Darren Waller, OG James Daniels, S Minkah Fitzpatrick
Key Subtractions: RB Raheem Mostert, TE Jonnu Smith, S Jordan Poyer
Most Important Game on the Schedule: Week 9 vs. Ravens. The Dolphins begin a gruelling portion of their schedule in Week 9 against the Ravens, followed by dates with the Bills and Washington Commanders. If they aren’t healthy and a game or two above .500 heading into this daunting stretch, a loss to the Ravens here could prematurely end their playoff hopes.
Prop to Watch: It’s worth taking a flier on Tua Tagovailoa to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award at +2200. Everyone is rooting for him to have a healthy and productive season after so many injury setbacks, and he has the complementary offensive weapons on this roster to help him have a big year statistically.
Potential Breakout Player: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will no doubt see the bulk of targets at the receiver position for the Dolphins, but Westbrook-Ikhine should factor into the offensive equation and be a difference-maker in 2025. He set career highs with Tennessee last season with 497 receiving yards and nine touchdowns and should thrive as a secondary receiver in this offence, with the ability to increase his role should one of the top receivers get hurt at some point.
Betting Projection: This team’s entire season revolves around the health of Tagovailoa and Hill, and that makes them incredibly hard to project. They have the potential to be a playoff team if everything swings their way, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if the Dolphins limp their way to only six or seven wins either. Pass on them and put your money elsewhere.
Tua Tagovailoa to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award
New York Jets
Super Bowl Odds: +25000
To Win Conference Odds: +6000
Division Odds: +1800
Odds to Make Playoffs: +475
Season Win Total: Over 5.5 (-150), Under 5.5 (+120)
2024 record: 5-12 (missed playoffs)
Key Additions: QB Justin Fields, WR Tyler Johnson, CB Brandon Stephens, S Andre Cisco
Key Subtractions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, TE Tyler Conklin, LB C.J. Mosley, K Greg Zuerlein, P Thomas Morstead
Most Important Game on the Schedule: Week 1 vs. Steelers. Justin Fields gets a revenge game against his former team right out of the chute in what should be one of the more entertaining Week 1 matchups. On the other side of the field, Aaron Rodgers will also be facing his former squad for the first time since signing in Pittsburgh.
Prop to Watch: Justin Fields over 649.5 yards rushing: -110. Back in 2022 with the Chicago Bears, Fields ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. He’s averaged six yards per carry throughout his four-year career, and you can bet he’ll be depending on his legs as the starting quarterback for the Jets as an unproven passer.
Potential Breakout Player: RB Braelon Allen. Could Allen be the next star out of the backfield in New York. He showed competence in short-yardage situations last season, converting on 87.5% on runs that needed two yards or less for a first down. If utilized correctly, Allen could be a weapon around the goal line, and he’s ready for a bigger role should Breece Hall get injured or potentially traded at some point.
Betting Projection: Jets to finish fourth in division: -105. The only path to the Jets getting out of the basement of the AFC East is if the Dolphins get decimated with injuries. Even if that scenario does play out, things would still need to come out roses for the Jets in order to leapfrog into that third position. Take the Jets to finish last in the division at close to even money odds.