The 2026 NL West shapes up as a Los Angeles Dodgers dynasty vs. scrappy contenders battleground, with season win totals offering prime betting value from L.A.’s lofty 103.5 line to Colorado’s basement 55.5 over (-110). Greg Warren unpacks FanGraphs/PECOTA projections, offseason splash moves like the Dodgers’ Kyle Tucker addition, and sharp picks across all five teams from the best MLB betting sites.
Related: Win total picks & predictions – AL East – AL Central – AL West – NL East – NL Central
Los Angeles Dodgers (over/under 103.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 96 wins
PECOTA projection: 104 wins
The Dodgers have the highest posted season win total in all of baseball at 103.5, but it’s a number they’ve failed to eclipse in each of the past three seasons. Last season, the injury-ravaged Dodgers posted just 93 wins after putting up 98 wins the year prior. Of course, they still won the World Series in both of those campaigns.
In typical Dodger fashion, the team loaded up again over the winter, bringing in stud outfielder Kyle Tucker and elite reliever Edwin Diaz to add even more depth to their ridiculous abundance of existing talent. The addition of Diaz addresses the Dodgers’ lone weakness at the back of the bullpen, and Tucker should benefit from having amazing protection in the team’s loaded lineup around Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.
Pick: Under 103.5 wins (-115)
No team has reached the 100-win plateau over the past two MLB seasons, and although the Dodgers boast one of the most talented rosters ever assembled, there really isn’t much incentive for them to push for the most regular season wins possible if they already have the division well in hand. And based off the next highest projection from an NL West opponent (San Diego – 83.5 wins), Los Angeles should be in cruise control of the division down the stretch. Many of the veteran players on this roster are injury prone, and you can bet the Dodgers will do everything in their power to rest their superstars whenever possible to preserve a healthy roster for the postseason.
Dodgers under 103.5 wins
San Diego Padres (over/under 83.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 79 wins
PECOTA projection: 81 wins
The Padres put 90 wins on the board last season, but they’ll be hard-pressed to replicate that success in 2025 after losing a few key players over the winter. Right-hander Dylan Cease left via free agency to join the Toronto Blue Jays, setup man Robert Suarez is now in Atlanta, and former NL batting champion Luis Arraez is now with the Giants.
Team executives were able to retain right-hander Michael King on a three-year deal, though, and they’re also rolling the dice on a bounce-back campaign from slugger Nick Castellanos, who inked a one-year pact with the club.
Joe Musgrove, who was slotted in as the team’s No. 3 starting pitcher, has suffered a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, making him likely to begin the season on the injured list. With an already thin rotation, that’s not good news for the Friars.
Pick: Over 83.5 wins (-115)
There are some concerns with the starting rotation, but this team still boasts an elite lineup that features Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill. Add in the fact that they also own the nastiest closer in baseball, Mason Miller, and you have the recipe for a team that should be able to snatch at least 84 wins and compete for a playoff spot in the NL. Yes, San Diego is weaker than last year, but a 17-win dip in 2026 seems unlikely given the talent that still remains on the roster.
Padres over 83.5 wins
San Francisco Giants (over/under 80.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 82 wins
PECOTA projection: 82 wins
You can see why oddsmakers set this win total at 80.5 given this team’s performance over the past four seasons: 81 wins in 2025, 80 in 2024, 79 in 2023, and 81 in 2022. The club has habitually hovered around the .500 mark for the past four seasons, and after a relatively quiet offseason, it makes sense that the Giants will land in that same echelon again in 2026.
Pitchers Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser were brought in on short-term deals as depth starters, and outfielder Harrison Bader and the aforementioned Arraez were the only moves that could have an impact offensively for the Giants this season. It’s hard to get too excited about any of those names, though, and it’s unlikely we see any breakout performances from any of San Francisco’s veteran players.
Pick: Pass
This number is perfectly set, and if history is any indicator, the Giants should come in right around 80 or 81 wins. There are better edges elsewhere in the division.
Arizona Diamondbacks (over/under 79.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 81 wins
PECOTA projection: 79 wins
The Diamondbacks made a flurry of moves over the winter in an attempt to remain competitive following a disappointing 80-win season. They retained the services of aging hurlers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly on short-term deals, while also bringing in veteran first baseman Carlos Santana and third baseman Nolan Arenado, among a few other moves to bring in experienced players.
Honestly, the moves reek of desperation, and the team probably would’ve benefited from a retooling season. But this is the avenue the front office has decided to take, and oddsmakers obviously don’t believe this team will be any better than last season given the 79.5 win total.
Pick: Under 79.5 wins (-115)
If health breaks their way, there’s a path for the Diamondbacks to push for a playoff spot. But the more likely scenario is that a few of their key veteran players spend some significant time on the injured list, forcing the team to become sellers by the trade deadline.
Diamondbacks under 79.5 wins
Colorado Rockies (over/under 55.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 66 wins
PECOTA projection: 60 wins
The Rockies were nearly historically bad in 2025, posting a miserable 43-119 record (.265 win percentage), just slightly better than the 2024 Chicago White Sox, who went 41-121 (.253 win percentage) to become the worst team in MLB history since the 1962 New York Mets (40-120). Fast forward a few months, and oddsmakers are projecting the team to win roughly 12 more games in 2026, with both of our projection systems actually estimating north of 60 wins.
It’s hard to be much worse than the Rockies were last season, and the team did make a few moves over the winter in an attempt to at least be somewhat respectable this year. Starting pitchers Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano were added to the fold, and Canadian second baseman Edouard Julien was also acquired in a trade with the Minnesota Twins.
The Rockies do have a few intriguing players on the roster, such as catcher Hunter Goodman, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, and outfielder Brenton Doyle, but it’s no secret the team will continue to dwell in the basement of this division.
Pick: Over 55.5 wins (-110)
The addition of the three aforementioned pitchers does raise the floor for the 2026 edition of the Rockies, and we should see closer to 60 wins as this team continues to rebuild.