As MLB spring training heats up, the AL East remains baseball’s toughest division, packed with juggernauts like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox chasing supremacy. Season win totals offer sharp bettors early value before lineups solidify and injuries hit.
Let’s take a look at the season win total projections for each of the five teams in the AL East and their associated betting odds at bet365 in an attempt to extract some value bets.
Toronto Blue Jays (over/under 88.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 86 wins
PECOTA Projection: 89.7 wins
Fresh off a 94-win season and a trip to the World Series, the Blue Jays have the second-highest posted season win total at bet365 for the 2026 season. It was a busy offseason for Canada’s only MLB team, which signed starting pitcher Dylan Cease, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, and reliever Tyler Rogers, among others, in an attempt to get back to the World Series in 2026. And although those notable additions should help the Blue Jays’ cause, the losses of shortstop Bo Bichette (New York Mets) and right-hander Chris Bassitt (Baltimore Orioles) certainly hurt the team.
Two reputable MLB projection systems, FanGraphs and PECOTA, are split on Toronto’s season win total, with FanGraphs projecting almost four fewer wins than PECOTA, which has Toronto winning the division with 89.7 wins. Both systems are projecting Toronto to once again be a playoff team.
Pick: Over 88.5 wins (-105)
I really think this number is set just right by oddsmakers. Everything broke right for Toronto last season in nearly every facet of the game, so it’s realistic to expect some regression in 2026. However, this team has done enough to stay relevant this offseason and remain a real contender in the American League. I’ll peg them at around 90 wins and cautiously take the over on this season-long prop.
Blue Jays over 88.5 wins
New York Yankees (over/under 90.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 87 wins
PECOTA Projection: 88.6 wins
Both of the projection systems we’re using for the purpose of this article believe the Bronx Bombers will come in slightly below their projected season win total of 90.5 this season. New York’s roster will look incredibly similar to last year’s squad that earned 94 wins, though.
The Yankees most notably re-signed Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Paul Goldschmidt during the offseason, but they did lose relievers Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to free agency.
Perhaps more importantly, staff ace Gerrit Cole is expected to return to the mound in late May or early June as he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw Carlos Rodon is also recovering from offseason elbow surgery and is expecting to make a return very early in the season. Still, it’s never good when your two best starting pitchers are beginning the season on the injured list, and there’s no telling if they may encounter a setback in their rehab attempts.
Pick: Under 90.5 wins (-110)
With an aging roster and several variables up in the air due to existing injuries, it’s hard to be optimistic about the Yankees’ chances of eclipsing 90 wins this season. Yes, they’ll hit for extreme power like they did a year ago, but their starting pitching depth will be tested throughout at least the early portion of the season.
Boston Red Sox (over/under 87.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 86 wins
PECOTA Projection: 82.3 wins
Once again, our projection systems aren’t keen on another powerhouse AL East team exceeding their season win total expectations. PECOTA barely has the Red Sox finishing over the .500 mark in its projections, while FanGraphs has them as a bubble playoff team.
Red Sox fans aren’t too happy after a lacklustre offseason that saw stud third baseman Alex Bregman opt out to become a member of the Chicago White Sox and the team flub on its attempt to sign free-agent slugger Pete Alonso. The front office attempted to save face by handing a five-year deal to southpaw Ranger Suarez to bolster the starting rotation, but there are some serious holes on the infield that weren’t addressed this winter.
This team is putting a ton of pressure on rising stars Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer to develop quickly into All-Stars, but both players have been prone to injuries throughout their careers in the minor leagues and in their brief MLB stints last season.
Pick: Under 87.5 wins (-105)
I’m concerned about this team’s ability to score enough runs to truly be a World Series contender and compete for the AL East title. Boston’s outstanding starting pitching staff and depth should keep the team competitive and slightly above .500, but it’s not reaching this season win total unless a trade is made for a proven power hitter on the infield.
Red Sox under 87.5 wins
Baltimore Orioles (over/under 85.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 84 wins
PECOTA Projection: 82.6 wins
Our projection systems have once again pegged an AL East team below its posted season win total.
The Orioles are coming off a disappointing 75-win season despite having some of the best rising stars in the game on their roster, like Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, and Gunnar Henderson, to name a few.
However, the Orioles’ front office made huge strides to improve the team this offseason by trading for slugger Taylor Ward, signing hulking first baseman Pete Alonso, and bringing in pitchers Shane Baz and Ryan Helsley. These impressive moves should help the club become at least a playoff bubble team, but there’s certainly potential for much more.
Remember, this team posted 91 wins in 2024 before last year’s dud, so there’s some serious optimism that the O’s can turn things around in a hurry with much of the same core intact surrounded by some potent reinforcements.
Pick: over 85.5 wins (-130)
I’m going to disagree with the projection systems in this case. The additions of proven power hitters like Ward and Alonso make this lineup downright scary, and there’s enough talent and depth on the pitching staff to make it at least league average. If the young core of positional players collectively has a resurgence, the O’s will be playing baseball in October after claiming close to 90 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays (over/under 76.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 81 wins
PECOTA Projection: 81.7 wins
Both projection systems are signalling value in an over bet on this season win total.
Don’t put too much stock in Tampa’s disappointing 77-win campaign last year after the team was forced to play its home games in an unfamiliar minor league ballpark while the roof at Tropicana Field was repaired following Hurricane Milton. A return to the major league ballpark will surely be a shot in the arm for this constantly underrated squad that has built a reputation for performing well on a strict budget.
The Rays underwent a serious makeover this offseason with several notable moves, including the departures of Brandon and Josh Lowe, Pete Fairbanks, and Baz, among others. Those players were replaced by veteran players, like Steven Matz, Gavin Lux, and Cedric Mullins, who are all trying to prove they still have something left in the tank.
Pick: over 76.5 wins (-110)
This team is also coached very well by manager Kevin Cash, whose unorthodox strategies guided by analytics always keep the opposition guessing and his players motivated. We’ll bank on that trend continuing and side with the projection systems on this over bet cashing.