Find the latest Super Bowl LV betting picks and odds here.
Ten years after winning his first Super Bowl with the Green Bay Packers, we are betting on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to win Super Bowl LV – which takes place on Sunday, February 7 at Raymond James Stadium.
|Kansas City Chiefs||3.20||3.20||3.00|
|Green Bay Packers||3.25||3.20||3.00|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5.00||5.00||5.50|
Aaron Rodgers Man on a Mission Revenge Tour
Maybe the Green Bay Packers drafting quarterback Jordan Love, Rodgers heir apparent in 2020. Perhaps football fans and experts claiming Rodgers was on the decline (although 2019 was not his best season). Whatever it is, Aaron Rodgers is playing arguably the best football of his career this season – which helped the team host their first NFC Championship game since the 2007-08 NFL season.
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Rodgers set career highs in multiple categories this season. He tossed a career-high 48 TDs this season at a career-high rate of 9.1% of passes while completing 70.7% of his passes.
In the Packers’ win against the Los Angeles Rams in the Division Round, Rodgers continued to look stellar. Against the number one defence in the NFL, led the Packers to 296 passing yards. In their previous 17 games (regular season plus one playoff game), the Rams had not allowed over 275 passing yards once.
Of course, Rodgers was only part of the Packers’ dominance against the NFL’s top defence and why we are betting on them to win Super Bowl LV.
Packers Rushing Game Productivity
One of the most overlooked aspects of any team left in the postseason – and one of the reasons we are picking the Packers to win the Super Bowl – is the Packers rushing attacking. The running back trio of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and AJ Dillon has been highly productive the last six games.
The Packers are averaging 160.8 yards on the ground the last six games – including 188 yards last weekend. The Packers running abilities opens up play-action for Rodgers and Davante Adams – and makes the Packers offence a nightmare for any opposing NFL defence.
Enough Pieces on Defence
Although the Green Bay Packers do not own the best defence in the NFL, they have some quality players and do a few things quite well.
One of the Packers’ strengths is their third-down defence. The Packers allowed a first down on only 39.5% of third downs – which ranks in the NFL’s top-ten. They also have an effective red-zone defence – allowing teams to score on only 57.7% of their trips inside the 20 – which ranks eighth in the NFL.
The Packers also do a good job of getting to the quarterback without blitzing at a high rate. The Packers only sent additional rushers on 24.7% of snaps – 11th lowest in the league – yet ranked 10th in the NFL with 41 sacks – with Za’Darius Smith leading the team with 12.5. Getting pressure with four is a must to have success against the remaining quarterbacks in the NFL Playoffs.
The Packers also have an excellent shutdown corner in Jaire Alexander. Alexander finished the 2020 NFL season with a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 90.6 – the highest of any cornerback in 2020. His ability to match up one-on-one will help the Packers against the top receivers (Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Tyreek Hill) left in the postseason.
Do Not Rule Out the Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills – the feel-good story of the NFL this season – are two wins away from their first Super Bowl victory ever, and if you are not sold on the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, bet on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo Bills Winning in Different Ways
One of the keys to success in the NFL playoffs is the ability to win games in different ways – which the Bills are doing this postseason. A week after the Bills put up 27 points and scored touchdowns on drives of 96 and 84 yards, it was their defence’s turn to win a game. The Bills’ defence stymied the Ravens, holding them to only three points.
The victories are reminiscent of the 2007 Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl run. That year the Colts – lead by an MVP calibre quarterback beat the Ravens 15-6 and followed that win up with a 38-34 AFC Championship victory over the New England Patriots. The Colts’ mixture of offence and defence helped the franchise win their first Super Bowl since relocating to Indianapolis.
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
The combination of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs has been as good as any other over the ten years. The former Vikings wide receiver has unleashed Josh Allen and this offence – helping the team set multiple franchise records.
Diggs does not always need to have a big game for the Bills to succeed. His presence on the field draws the focus of defences, which opens things up for other players such as Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Dawson Knox. When these guys are getting open, the Bills’ offence is arguably the best in the league. They can spread the field, allowing Josh Allen to make plays with legs.
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