Three weeks of NFL action left means plenty of exciting games and betting opportunities – as we inch closer to the postseason.
Between the Bills and Patriots playing a pivotal division showdown and some exciting games between potential playoff teams – there is plenty to cover in our NFL Week 16 2021 betting preview.
Best Game: Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots Headline Exciting Week 16
With the Patriots losing and the Bills winning last week, this game is a huge showdown as it could decide the winner of the AFC East. The Patriots won the first matchup this season – rushing for 222 yards as the wind limited both teams’ effectiveness in the passing game. The best Week 16 NFL betting odds have the Pats as small favourites – but we are liking the underdog.
The weather for the rematch on Sunday looks much better – which bodes well for the Bills. Josh Allen is the best player in this game – and the Bills gameplan should take advantage of it. The Bills will spread the field, forcing the Patriots to drop six into coverage or use a spy on Josh Allen.
It can work to limit Allen but not enough to stop the Bills from putting up 31 points. And therein lies the problem for the Patriots.
While Mac Jones is the best rookie QB and our pick to win 2022 NFL Rookie of the Year, he has yet to prove he can win a shootout. When down, he forces throws more – resulting in turnovers (akin to what happened in the Week 15 game against the Colts). Take Bills to bounce back against the Pats and tie them atop the AFC East.
Best Underdog Bet: Miami can Win on the Road in New Orleans
New Orleans opens as the favourite in this game – after stifling the Buccaneers’ offence to get back to .500. However, the Saints always play the Bucs well during the regular season (4-0 during the Brady era in Tampa Bay) – and other than that game they do not look great heading into Week 16.
The Saints have struggled since Jameis Winston want down against teams with six wins or more. They are 1-5 against teams with six wins more (entering Week 16) since Winston went out and that was a 9-0 win against the Bucs.
Their offence is struggling. Either they are committing turnovers (ten in their last seven games) or struggling to move the ball down the field (twice held under 215 yards in their last four games).
The Dolphins are playing better football right now. Outside of the Jets (for some reason) have held four of their last six opponents to under 17 points. They have one of the best rush defences in the NFL dating back to Week 6 – allowing no team to rush for over 102 yards in nine straight games. Add in Tua is a better QB than Taysom Hill and will like the Dolphins as road underdogs.
Best Under Bet: New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars Should not Feature many Points
If you want to talk about bad offences in the NFL – look no further than the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets. The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in points scored at 14.0 points per game, while the Jets are sixth-worst at 17.9.
The Jets offence is even worse if you only consider games with Zach Wilson starting. The only time the Jets reached 30 points this season, Zach Wilson was out with an injury. With Zach Wilson, the Jets’ season-high is 27 points, and it took overtime to get that high.
The teams have combined for 51 turnovers this season, and both have more interceptions than passing touchdowns. Expect a sloppy game with both teams struggling to score.
Best Over Bet: Bengals and Ravens Game Set for Points (No Matter the Quarterback)
If you watched the games last week, you know that the Ravens have arguably the perfect backup quarterback for their system – Tyler Huntley. Huntley was instrumental in leading the Ravens from behind to nearly upset the Packers. He was also great against the Browns after Lamar Jackson went down. Simply put, Huntley has led the Ravens to score 52 points in the last seven quarters.
Against him are Joe Burrows and the Bengals. The Bengals offence had by far their best offensive performance of the season in Week 7 against the Ravens. The Bengals finished the game with 520 yards and 41 points. In Week 17 of the 2020 NFL Season, the Ravens put up 525 yards and 38 points in a win over the Bengals.
Add in that the last four times in this matchup the over/under line was set at 44.5 the over hit – and this game is the best over bet of Week 16.
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