NBA Odds, Player Props, Betting Preview: Warriors vs. Lakers (May 12)

The Golden State Warriors aren’t quite done yet.

Facing a 3-1 series deficit on Wednesday night, the Warriors cruised to a 121-106 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers to force a Game 6 on Friday in Los Angeles.

Six Warriors players posted double-digit point totals in the win, as Golden State shot 51% as a team from the field.

However, the Lakers are 2.5-point favourites to prevail in Game 6 and end the best-of-seven series. The total is set at 221 points.

Warriors vs. Lakers odds

Lakers Moneyline Odds-142
Warriors Moneyline Odds+120
Spread OddsLakers -2.5
Series OddsLakers -225, Warriors +188
Over/Under221 points (over -110, under -110)
Time/DateFriday, May 12, 10:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

Series history

The Lakers won – and covered the spread – in their previous two home games in the series. The teams have combined for a 3-2 over/under record through the first five games.

DateHome TeamSpread OddsResultTotal
May 10Golden StateWarriors -7.5121-106 Warriors223.5 (over)
May 8Los AngelesLakers -2.5104-101 Lakers228 (under)
May 6Los AngelesLakers -3127-97 Lakers229.5 (under)
May 4Golden StateWarriors -7127-100 Warriors226.5 (over)
May 2Golden StateWarriors -4.5117-112 Lakers227 (over)

About the Warriors (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 o/u)

This is only the third time since 2015 the Warriors have fallen behind in a playoff series, 3-1 (series is now 3-2). Previously, Golden State trailed 3-1 in the 2019 NBA Finals vs. Toronto (lost series in six) and the 2016 Western Conference Finals vs. Oklahoma City (won in seven). Thirteen times in NBA history a team has won a playoff series after trailing 3-1, the last two came in 2020 when Denver did it twice. Golden State now has +188 odds to win the series after its Game 5 victory.

The Warriors will need a better game from Klay Thompson if they hope to extend their season. Thompson was just 3-for-12 from the field and 2-of-6 from three-point range for a total of 10 points in Game 5. Since going 8-for-11 on his long-range attempts in Game 2, the Warriors guard is just 8-for-24 (33%) from beyond the arc over the past three games.

Thompson’s Splash Brother, Steph Curry, is also struggling from deep, going 10-for-35 (28.6%) from three-point land over the last three games.

About the Lakers (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 4-7 o/u)

The big storyline heading into this game is the health of Anthony Davis, who took a blow to the head from Warriors forward Kevon Looney with seven minutes remaining in Game 5 and had to leave the game in a wheelchair.

Davis is listed as probable on the team’s injury report, though, with his only designation involving a sore foot. The forward is averaging 21.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks in 11 playoff games.

LeBron James and Davis are obviously the key cogs for the Lakers, but their supporting cast is the x-factor in this game. D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Lonnie Walker IV have all made meaningful contributions during this series, but they combined for just 23 points on Wednesday.

It’s important to note that the Lakers have a flawless 5-0 record (and 5-0 ATS) at home in these playoffs.

Injury concerns

Mo Bamba (ankle) is questionable for the Lakers after missing the last five games and Davis is probable with his foot/head ailments. Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins has been added to the injury report as questionable with a left costal cartilage fracture in his rib cage. Forward Patrick Baldwin Jr. is also questionable with a toe injury.

  • The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their past five meetings in Los Angeles.
  • The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Los Angeles.
  • The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Warriors guard Jordan Poole is on a nice little run in the rebounds + assists betting category. He’s beat his posted total in six straight games and is averaging 7.1 in this series against the Lakers. Best odds: Over 4.5 rebounds + assists (-160, BetMGM).
  • Wiggins has drained exactly two three-pointers in each of his last four games. Best odds: Over 1.5 three-pointers (-140, DraftKings). This could be a risky play, though, given Wiggins’ injury status.
  • Davis has committed at least three turnovers in each of the last four games against the Warriors and he may not be at 100% for Game 6. Best odds: Over 2.5 turnovers (-119, Caesars).

Wagers to consider

  • Warriors guard Moses Moody has quietly been a good bet in this series in the points + rebounds category. He’s averaging eight in the series vs. the Lakers and has soared over his line in four straight games. If the Warriors find themselves down and out in the fourth quarter, Moody could get a significant amount of garbage minutes in addition to his usual 13 minutes per game this postseason. Best odds: Over 7.5 (-120, BetMGM).
  • With so many stars boasting so many playoff accolades on both teams, wouldn’t it be fitting that this crucial Game 6 goes to an exciting overtime? If you’re looking for a longshot, why not throw a small wager on the game being tied at the end of regulation (+1225, bet365)? The 2.5-point spread certainly suggests oddsmakers believe this will be a close affair.

Other NBA games on Friday

Home TeamSpread/totalAway TeamTime (ET)
Miami Heat-5.5, 208 over/underNew York Knicks7:30
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.