There were some close calls along the way, but it always felt inevitable: the Olympic men’s hockey Gold Medal Game will feature Canada taking on the USA in the clash of titans that we were all dying to see.
Canada showed incredible heart and determination in its do-or-die comebacks versus Czechia and Finland in the knockout rounds. It remains undefeated in the tournament with a 27-8 goal differential while owning 68.7% of scoring chances. The team is headlined by numerous Hart Trophy-calibre skaters, led by the best player in the game—Connor McDavid—who’s put up an Olympic record of 13 points through five games.
Canada’s lineup may offer the three best forwards in this matchup, but head coach Mike Sullivan’s side has arguably offered more balanced play throughout the tournament, though that perception may have been aided by a more favourable schedule. The Americans have outscored opponents 24 -8 and owned 69.7% of the scoring chances to this point. The team’s defensive core is absolutely stacked, making the presence of reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in goal that much more intimidating.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for the Olympic Gold Medal Game between Canada and USA, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Canada vs. USA best bet: Regulation Tie +300
Canada vs. USA regulation tie
The 4 Nations Face-Off Final was about as closely contested as it gets. Neither team led by more than one goal, and while Canada emerged victorious, the shots were 33-27 for the USA, and Jordan Binnington was forced to come up with some massive saves in overtime. When these rivals met in 2014 at the Olympics, Canada won 1-0, and in the 2010 Olympics, Canada won 3-2 in overtime thanks to Canada’s golden goal.
It’s hard to imagine either team entirely outplaying the other in this spot, and it will likely be a closely-contested battle featuring close scorelines throughout the game.
I saw a comment on “X” Friday from a bettor saying that he would “bet his mortgage” on Canada if it was priced at -120. The comment was likely made in jest, but we will still note never to overextend yourself betting-wise; sports are random. No result is ever a guarantee, and that notion is particularly true looking at a hockey game where neither team is likely to generate notably more scoring chances than the other.
Team USA was fantastic defensively in its win over Sweden in the quarterfinals and allowed next to nothing versus Slovakia prior to the point when the game had become a complete blowout in the third period. It features one of the best defensive corps ever assembled, numerous elite two-way forwards, and one of the best goaltenders in the world in the pipes.
Even for an offensive core as stacked as Canada’s is, it’s hard to imagine it will be able to generate offence easily in this matchup. Czechia exposed Canada a few times against the run of play in the quarterfinals, but Canada’s defensive game has also been rock-solid overall, and it seems hard to believe that the USA will blow them out of the water in this spot.
Betting the under in this type of game is rightfully a strong betting strategy. As we touched on ahead of USA’s quarterfinal matchup versus Sweden, which ended 2-1 in overtime, the last 25 NHL Game 7’s have held an average total of 4.68 goals. Both teams will exhibit strong attention to detail defensively in this matchup, and generating clean scoring chances should prove quite difficult.
Those thoughts also hold relevance when considering the chances of the game requiring overtime, which seems to offer more value than backing the under, given that the total is set at 5.5 and is heavily juiced to the under.
Though it always takes some luck to win a bet on the regulation tie, it seems much more likely than the current price of +300 suggests. I’d be surprised if either team wins by two barring an empty-netter, and if the game gets deadlocked in the third period, generating score chances will likely become extremely difficult, and that scoreline would have a good chance of holding until overtime.
Canada vs. USA Odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -130 |
| USA moneyline odds | +110 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -1.5 (+205), USA +1.5 (-250) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (+135), Under 5.5 (-160) |
Betting Canada
Canada has a ton of championship pedigree up and down the lineup, and over the last two games the team’s absolute inability to accept anything but a win has been palpable. They are without question battle-tested, and there will be no panic on the bench if the team is to fall behind, just as it did in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
While the grit and determination displayed this week has been extremely impressive, it’s obviously not ideal to require the type of comebacks we have seen thus far when the margin for error becomes razor-thin. Needless penalties, like we saw from Sam Bennett versus Finland, and relatively shaky starts are going to be harder to hide in this matchup than they were in the two previous games.
While the overall scoring chances dictate that Canada was ultimately a deserving winner in its games versus Czechia and Finland, it was a little concerning how surprisingly one-dimensional the team felt at times in those matchups.
With 13 points in five games throughout the tournament, McDavid has once again proven that he is the best player alive. Macklin Celebrini is the second favourite to win the Hart Trophy this season, yet it’s still shocking just how excellent the 19-year-old’s level of play in this tournament has been. Nathan MacKinnon looks to be dealing with some kind of injury, but he’s still had some impactful moments.
MacKinnon has had a hard time driving his own line, and in general, it’s mainly been the top line of McDavid, Celebrini and MacKinnon/Tom Wilson that has truly clicked, and to a lesser extent the Sidney Crosby, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner combination earlier in the tournament.
Crosby’s is considered questionable for this game after missing the semifinals due to injury, but Ryan Rishaug of TSN reported that he’s told the chances of Crosby playing in this game are around 70%. On paper, the loss of Crosby should not be crippling; those minutes will still be entirely played by a skater (mainly Nick Suzuki) who is a full-fledged number-one centre at the NHL level, but it’s obviously more significant given what he means to the program, and because some forwards have looked surprisingly flat in this tournament.
We will never know for certain if Canada would have looked slightly more dominant were it to have brought some of the stronger play-driving defencemen that were left at home prior to Milano Cortina, but it has felt at times as though the process might have been that much sharper if that was the case.
Shea Theodore broke through with a gigantic goal in the matchup versus Finland after a sustained stretch of play in the offensive zone. It was the type of play that potentially we may have seen more of if skaters such as Jakob Chychrun, Matthew Schaefer and/or Evan Bouchard had made the cut, but again that point is difficult to prove with certainty.
Head coach Jon Cooper did seem to find something with the combination of Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, and Tom Wilson at the tail end of the matchup versus Finland, though at that point Finland had fully parked the bus and was getting caved in shift after shift. Expect that unit to remain together in this matchup, and the trio should hopefully provide a ton of energy.
Jordan Binnington got hung with another poor stat line versus Finland, as he stopped just 15 of 17 shots faced and now holds a .914 save percentage in the tournament. You could potentially argue that he could have saved Mikko Rantanen’s opening tally, but it’s probably still not a goal that is second-guessed in a normal NHL game, while Erik Haula’s breakaway tally was indisputably not on Binnington. He did not face much from that point on, but as has generally been the case when playing for his country, Binnington did not allow what would have been a back-breaking third goal.
Betting Team USA
While Canada has the superior players at the absolute top of the lineup, Team USA looks to be a well-oiled machine entering this matchup. It’s allowed only 5.4 shots on goal per game from the inner slot, and holds a 74% share of chances from the inner slot throughout the first five matchups, compared to Canada’s mark of 63.7%.
The obvious knock on those stats is that Canada has certainly faced a more difficult schedule.
By all indicators, Swedish head coach Sam Hallam did a horrible job managing what was a very strong roster. Still, the USA deserves plenty of credit for the way it defended in the quarterfinal matchup, despite the fact that Mika Zibanejad managed to tie it 6-on-5 on a well-placed shot.
Team USA’s defensive core was expected to be its greatest advantage over Canada, and it does seem that expected edge has come to fruition. The unit features a great balance of mobile play-drivers with strong offensive upside who are well supported by more stay-at-home guys such as Charlie McAvoy and Jaccob Slavin.
Quinn Hughes has had a marvelous tournament, and his presence in this game after missing the 4 Nations Face-Off is a major reason why things could go differently. Zach Werenski is priced at -110 to win the Norris Trophy right now, and has been as dominant as expected thus far, while Jake Sanderson has also looked excellent.
Up front, the Americans do not appear to have a McDavid, MacKinnon or Celebrini type, which is one area that Canada has a considerable edge. But their superior defensive core could help the slightly lesser forward corps control play respectably in this matchup, and by no means is the forward corps anything to scoff at.
Jack Eichel has evolved into one of the best two-way centres in the game and can handle matchups versus elite offensive units effectively. Auston Matthews might not look like a Hart Trophy winner anymore, but he’s still a Selke-level defender with elite finishing ability.
The USA’s third line of Jack Hughes, Tage Thompson and Dylan Larkin could prove to be an “x-factor” in this matchup. Hughes clawed his way up the lineup card thanks to some tremendous play in the tournament, and is a scary partner to play alongside one of the best shooters in the game in Thompson.
Thompson left Friday’s matchup after taking a shot off the skate, but his departure was reportedly precautionary due to the result being inevitable at that point, and he is expected to play Sunday.
Hellebuyck has played to a .947 save percentage in this tournament. He’s not dealt with many high quality looks, but his positioning and movement has looked sharp, and it seems as though he is now back in his best form after a lesser period of play at the NHL level immediately when he first returned from injury.
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