As was expected entering the women’s Olympic hockey tournament, the Gold Medal Game will feature Team USA and Team Canada renewing their storied rivalry. Both teams have still looked head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the tournament throughout the group stage. However, for a change, the Canadians are considered to be clear underdogs in this head-to-head matchup after losing 5-0 in the round-robin matchup between these sides after being swept in last year’s rivalry series.
For our newer readers to these articles, due to the added intrigue surrounding this matchup, online sportsbooks are offering Canada just a 21.5% chance of winning this game based on the current betting odds. It’s unheard of for the Canadian women’s side to be this big of an underdog in any matchup, and they will look to embrace the role of playing as full-fledged underdogs Thursday with gold medals on the line.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this women’s Olympic hockey matchup, and analyze how Canada arrives in this matchup as such a heavy underdog.
Canada vs. USA Best Bet: USA to Win in Regulation/Canada Under 1.5 Total Goals Parlay +100
Nick’s Gold Medal Game parlay
If Canada did not still hold drastically more talent than any other nation aside from the United States, chances are head coach Troy Ryan would be facing much more criticism for his lack of in-game adjustments and personnel usage in this tournament. Those associated with selecting the roster would also likely be under fire.
Based on what we have seen so far, it seems reasonable to expect Canada to struggle in this matchup, and then at that point the criticism and negative commentary surrounding the group will become significantly greater.
Even if Canada were coached flawlessly and all of the ideal roster selections were made, it still may not be enough to hang around with head coach John Wroblewski’s stacked American side.
Canada has not looked like an entirely cohesive side at even strength, and has generally not looked overly threatening in transition and off of the rush. Those thoughts have largely been hidden by their significant talent advantage over most nations in this tournament but were obviously prominent when these teams clashed in the group stage, and on Monday when Switzerland hung around despite owning little of the overall play.
Our best bet on Canada’s semi-final matchup versus Switzerland came in on Switzerland +4.5 goals parlayed with the game to go under 6.5 total goals. Though Canada surely could have won by one or two more goals and obviously deserved to get them throughout the game, it still outlined a lot of the consistent flaws we have seen in this tournament.
Though they had 46 shots on goal, a lot of those shots weren’t overly threatening, and I’d argue the game went more or less exactly as we expected when outlining the bet. While outshooting a team 46 to 8 sounds tremendous, you have to consider that the fact that Canada was unable to create more true Grade “A” chances with such a significant edge in possession is concerning.
Ryan’s offensive usage continues to be a concern. There’s been a massive reluctance to accept which skaters are truly playing at the highest level in this tournament, and a lot of Canada’s chances continue to come from skaters who no longer are that skilled offensively.
Canada will need to be significantly more opportunistic when it does generate sustained offensive zone time in this matchup in order to manage a respectable offensive output, and I’m not sold that is overly likely. They did not have Marie Philip-Poulin in the lineup when these teams met in the group stage, but it may prove difficult for one skater to change the matchup so significantly relative to what we saw during the Americans’ convincing 5-0 win.
The USA. has allowed just one goal against across six games in this tournament and allowed an average of just 15.8 shots on goal per game. That’s simply incredible.
Aerin Frankiel enters off a 21-save shutout versus Sweden and has been excellent in the tournament. She holds a .946 save percentage in the PWHL this season. Though Canada should still be able to generate more quality looks than any other nation, it will be a tall order for a side that has looked unconvincing to create much versus an American side that looks to be a well-oiled machine, and it seems quite reasonable to assume Frankiel will make all the saves she is supposed to.
Canada vs. USA Odds
| Canada moneyline odds | +375 |
| USA moneyline odds | -500 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada +1.5 (+130), U.S.A. -1.5 (+130) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (+110), Under 5.5 (-130) |
Betting Canada
Canada will hope that leaning towards bringing experienced, veteran skaters proves effective in this high-pressure situation. There are plenty of skaters that did not make the team who arguably offer higher upside than many of the ones who did, but the inclusion of many of those bubble skaters will be exonerated if they are able to rise to the challenge and play their best games of the tournament in this high-pressure situation.
Only Marie-Philip Poulin was able to score in the team’s matchup versus Switzerland, and obviously, she is not one of the skaters I’m targeting when saying that not everyone who deserved to be on the team was included on the roster. But what has further exacerbated the roster decisions in this tournament is that Ryan does not really appear to be reevaluating who his most effective players have been and what their roles should be.
Blayre Turnbull has not looked overly threatening offensively, and she made a fairly significant mistake on the Swiss goal that made Tuesday’s matchup a sweat for the Canadians. Emily Clark scored a pair versus Finland, but has also, on average, not looked overly effective. The same can be said for Sarah Nurse, who seems to continue to get a lot of credit for being dominant at the 2022 Olympics.
A lot can change in four years, which seems to be understood by the American program but not so much on the Canadian side of things. If basing it only on this tournament, it seems reasonable to believe a lot of the usage for Team Canada deserves to be much different.
But at this point it does not seem likely to believe that Ryan will change his thinking, and it seems likely that Canada will trot out more or less the same tactics and usage it has employed the last five times versus the U.S., and the recent results have been horrific.
In this do-or-die spot, it does seem reasonable to believe Ryan’s group is capable of making the game into a little more of a slog than we have seen recently versus the USA, and most favourable versions of the game will likely revolve around a razor-sharp performance in goal from Ann-Renee Desbiens and likely some strong work with the man advantage.
Betting USA
Even if Canada was coached optimally and/or had brought all of their higher-upside young talents, it still may not have meant they were anything but an underdog in this matchup. You have to give a ton of credit to the American program and the work of head coach John Wroblewski, and acknowledge that the American talent pool has become quite outstanding in recent years.
They will now look to put a bow on what has been an incredibly dominant tournament, in which they have outscored opponents 31-1 and outshot opponents 264-95. All of that will be forgotten if they are unable to win this matchup, and the team has noted its awareness that they must expect Canada to be better than they were in the rivalry series and group stage.
While Canada has outscored and outshot opponents similarly badly in the tournament, it has appeared that the USA features more ultra dynamic skaters and is much more adept offensively in transition and off the rush. Led by MVP favourite Caroline Harvey, their blue-line has done a good job of jumping up into the attack while not being caught out going the other way.
Their defensive core has done a great job stepping up at the blue line and forcing dump-ins and has the mobility and puck-moving ability to get plays going the other way at the first time of asking. It seems reasonable to expect Canada will not get many looks off the rush in this matchup, and they will need to have a well-organized forecheck and create chances off the cycle effectively.
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