After finishing with nine points in the group stage, Canada will begin the Olympic women’s hockey knockout round with a quarterfinal matchup versus Germany on Saturday.
Canada is a gigantic favourite in this do-or-die matchup, priced at -20000 to win inside of regulation. This game should theoretically be nothing more than a tune-up for the silver medal favourite Canadians, but weirder things have happened, and head coach Troy Ryan’s side should jump at the opportunity to stay sharp.
Canada vs. Germany best bet: Daryl Watts to score +115
Daryl Watts to score
For those most in the know on women’s hockey, usage has been a huge talking point surrounding the Canadian side in this tournament. The team’s debatable usage comes after Hockey Canada also opted to pass on a number of skaters who are arguably, at this point in time, superior to a number of skaters who were brought back from the 2022 Olympics.
One of the younger talents who does seem to be garnering the role she deserves is Daryl Watts, who we have outlined to score twice already in this tournament, and she went 1-for-2 on those selections.
Watts skated 18:37 in Canada’s 5-0 win over Finland on Thursday. She scored Canada’s second goal of the game, finishing with two goals and four points throughout the group stage.
Per Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic, Watts holds the second-highest offensive rating among Canadian forwards this season in the PWHL. It hasn’t looked surprising that his model is so high on Watts in this tournament, as she has looked to be one of the more threatening offensive skaters.
When we backed Watts to score versus Switzerland in what was ultimately their tournament opener, it was priced at +115. She scored in half the games in the group stage, and was among Canada’s leaders in ice time Thursday in a game where she looked effective.
With those thoughts in mind, it’s surprising to see the price for Watts to score still at +115 in this matchup, considering how soft a matchup versus Germany is, and Canada’s likelihood to score four or more goals.
Germany was competent in Group B, but there was always expected to be a huge gap between the two groups, and when Germany played Sweden, it allowed four goals from 37 shots. Canada would still be a gigantic favourite over Sweden, so it’s quite reasonable to say that Germany could struggle mightily in this matchup.
Canada vs. Germany odds
| Germany moneyline (Regulation Time) | +5400 |
| Canada moneyline odds (Regulation Time) | -200000 |
| Puck Line odds | Germany +5.5 (+105), Canada -5.5 (–134) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-125), Under 6.5 goals (-106) |
Betting Team Canada
Canada was never fully going to be able to make amends for its disappointing loss to the USA in Thursday’s matchup versus Finland, but it did respond well with a strong 5-0 victory.
One of the more encouraging storylines from the matchup for Canada was seeing goaltender Ann-Renee Desbiens bounce back with an 18-save shutout after she was pulled after two periods of play in the team’s matchup versus the United States. Desbiens is one of the best goaltenders in the world, and Canada will seemingly need her to be at her best to have a realistic shot of knocking off the U.S.
Our best bet from Thursday’s matchup was on Finland +4.5, and a fair assessment seems to be that it was a bet that easily could have gone either way and proved to simply be a well-set line. The bet may not have been as close if Ryan had offered the trio of Julia Gosling, Kristin O’Neill, and Jenn Gardiner more minutes, as the trio combined for five points and probably should have earned more minutes.
While ultimately it would not truly have changed the result of which Canadian skaters got the most minutes Thursday, it seems to outline an overlying problem for Ryan and the women’s program. There does not seem to be an open mindset towards which skaters are actually playing the best.
Whether it’s with regard to in-game adjustments or selections, it feels as though this regime is quite reluctant to stray away from skaters who have past success with the program.
I’ll make it clear to go alongside those thoughts that they do not apply to Marie-Philip Poulin, who’s obviously still an elite forward. Ryan noted postgame today that Poulin will likely play in this matchup and will presumably be inserted back onto the top line.
Betting Germany
Though odds are Germany will lose Saturday’s matchup, even if that is the case, it will likely be happy with the outcome of this tournament, as earning its way into the knockout round as one of the top three teams in Group B was far from guaranteed. Germany has been in the top division of the IIHF for most of the last decade but qualified for the Olympics for the first time since 2014.
Germany’s group stage went more or less as expected, as they earned regulation wins over Japan and Italy, while they beat France in overtime and lost 4-1 to Sweden. In those matchups they allowed 24.25 shots per game, and 2.00 goals per game, but those stats are heavily aided by their showings versus the weaker B teams.
Sandra Abstreiter is the team’s number-one goaltender and will presumably get the start in this matchup. She holds a 1.99 GAA and .918 save percentage in the tournament, while she’s been less effective at the PWHL level with a .899 save percentage in a small sample of five starts over the last two seasons.
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