Benfica and Real Madrid meet today in a fascinating Champions League clash that pits one of Europe’s most efficient pressing sides against its most ruthless counterattacking giant.
The Portuguese champions will look to leverage home advantage, high tempo, and an aggressive front press to disrupt Madrid’s buildup and keep the crowd engaged from the opening whistle.
On the other side, Madrid’s star-studded attack will be happy to absorb pressure, lean on their experience in big European nights, and strike quickly in transition if Benfica over-commit. With contrasting soccer styles, European pedigree on one bench and a hungry, ascending squad on the other, this matchup sets up as a compelling test of whether Benfica’s structure and intensity can slow down Real Madrid’s big‑game DNA.
Our best bet for today’s Champions League clash between Benfica and Real Madrid is Kylian Mbappe to score at -105 odds (bet365).
Benfica vs. Real Madrid best bet
Kylian Mbappe to score
- Kylian Mbappe has been in excellent form for Real Madrid this season, particularly in the Champions League. Although the Frenchman has never lifted this trophy, he has a superb scoring record in it. In fact, he now sits sixth on the list of all-time top scorers in the Champions League, just three behind Raul. As a result, we are backing him to score against Benfica.
- This season, Mbappe is the top scorer in the Champions League by some distance, netting 13 goals in seven appearances, averaging a goal every 48 minutes played.
- In Real’s last Champions League game, which was also against Benfica, Mbappe scored twice. Those goals meant he has now scored eight goals across his last three appearances in this competition.
- Although Benfica deserved their victory when they faced Real Madrid in the final match of the league phase, Mbappe was able to get into dangerous areas, managing four shots from inside the Benfica box. We can expect the Frenchman to have plenty of scoring opportunities once again.
Benfica vs. Real Madrid match context
- On Tuesday, Benfica and Real Madrid face each other again in the first leg of the Champions League playoffs, just 20 days after their matchday 8 encounter in the league phase at Estadio da Luz.
- In the last match of the league phase, Benfica defeated Real Madrid 4-2, with a stoppage-time goal by goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin securing qualification for the Portuguese side at Marseille’s expense.
- Due to their loss in the final game, Real Madrid slipped to ninth place in the standings, requiring them to compete in the playoffs, as they did in the 2024/25 season.
- Despite the recent defeat in Lisbon, bookmakers still favour Los Blancos. However, the latest odds give Real Madrid only about a 54% chance of winning the first leg against Benfica, managed by José Mourinho, a former Real Madrid coach.
Benfica vs. Real Madrid odds analysis
- Benfica’s win odds in the 1×2 market imply a 25% probability of victory, whereas Real Madrid’s 1×2 market price suggest a 54% probability of an away win. Intriguingly, these two teams met on the final matchday of the Champions League league phase at the end of January, with Benfica’s goalkeeper scoring in the dying seconds to book Benfica a place in the knockout stages. The Portuguese side won 4-2 in Lisbon just a few weeks ago.
- The Asian handicap market is set at Real Madrid -0.5, meaning the away team must win the game to return full profits. Any other result, including a draw, would mean the Benfica +0.5 Asian handicap is successful.
- The Asian goal line is set at over/under 3.0 goals. With six goals scored in the most recent head-to-head, many bettors might be tempted by the current goal line on offer. However, that game turned into a shootout, with Benfica and Real Madrid having nothing to lose as they sought to qualify for the top 24 and the top eight, respectively. Goals were needed at different stages of the match, and that’s what Benfica’s supporters got.
- Kylian Mbappe leads the Champions League goal-scoring charts with 11 goals, four in front of the next best, Harry Kane (7) of Bayern Munich. Mbappe has scored the most goals, taken the most shots (40), and generated the most significant expected goals total in the competition: 7.84 xG. The Frenchman is the favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, followed by teammate Gonzalo Garcia.