After a disappointing performance in a messy semi-final versus Czechia Sunday evening, Team Canada will look to regroup and at least ensure it finds its way back onto the podium Monday when it takes on Finland at the World Juniors.
These two sides met on New Year’s Eve, and Canada was able to score its way out of trouble in an eventual 7-4 win, which was certainly not the most well-rounded performance. Canada is a massive favourite priced at -313 (bet365) in Monday’s clash, in a spot where it feels unclear what type of performance the team may bring versus a scrappy Finnish side.
My best bets for Monday’s clash between Canada and Finland are backing Finland to win at +190, and backing Michael Hage to score at +180.
Best Bet-Finland Moneyline: +190
Finland moneyline
As is always the case when Canada disappoints in this tournament, there is plenty of finger-pointing going around regarding the main causations of the disappointing results.
Relative to years past, Canada’s forwards certainly lacked a level of physical dominance, while high-profile forwards such as Gavin McKenna and Michael Misa were not as offensively creative as expected in more difficult matchups.
Given the talent on board, Canada’s defensive core certainly did not move the puck up the ice as effectively as one might hope, and the team clearly lacked overall cohesion in Sunday’s loss. It probably didn’t help that head coach Dale Hunter opted to roll with eight defenders, and as a whole, the team’s blue-liners certainly did not look to have much rhythm.
The talent is certainly there for Canada to steal any matchup, as we saw when they faced Finland earlier in the tournament. But overall, most would agree it was another WJC in which Canada never seemed to offer a well-rounded team game, and the best moments of the tournament seemed to revolve around individual bits of brilliance, as well as the team’s incredibly effective power play.
Maybe Team Canada shows some heart in this matchup and earns a small measure of solace in earning a bronze medal. It feels like the team’s level of determination to grind out a win versus a very scrappy Finnish side could go either way, and the case that Finland could hang around in this matchup despite offering much less talent on paper is fairly strong.
Despite the heartbreaking result after a back-and-forth shootout and wild overtime period, Finland offered a performance to be proud of in their semi-final loss to a Sweden side that has looked quite excellent in this tournament. It’s a statement that could be made for both teams prior to the point when Anton Frondell finally won the game in the seventh round of the shootout, but in several instances, a couple centimetres made the difference between winning and losing.
The heartbreaking loss came after Finland managed to eliminate the defending champion Americans with a 4-3 win, in which their overall team cohesion led to a better result than the gap in talent suggested they would achieve.
Finland has appeared to offer a more well-organized team game since these teams last met, and it seems like a spot where it may be more inspired by the thought of earning a bronze medal. At a long price of +190, I’m happy to tap into the potential volatility given that Canada only looked truly convincing in five-on-five play versus weaker opponents in this tournament.
Best Bet—Michael Hage Anytime Goal-Scorer: +180
Michael Hage to score
The overall level of criticism all players on losing Canadian sides suffer following this tournament can be quite over the top, considering that this is a short, highly volatile tournament involving teenagers.
In Michael Hage’s instance, the criticism seems particularly unfair, as his inability to finish on a number of high-quality scoring chances has made him a target despite the fact that he generally looked to be one of Canada’s most determined skaters in the tournament and in Sunday’s loss.
Hage grades out as Canada’s top forward from the tournament in most grading systems. While he missed some high-quality chances, he’s at least looked to be a highly impactful forward that has created plenty of dangerous scoring chances, which is more than can be said for several of Canada’s other highly touted forwards.
Brady Martin was one of the other Canadian forwards who played up to expectation in this tournament, but he is expected to miss this matchup due to injury, which furthers my belief that Hage is a good bet as a skater to lead the way for Canada in this matchup.
Considering the quality of chances Hage has had throughout the tournament, I’m happy to take a shot that he is able to break through with his third goal of the tournament in this matchup.
Canada vs. Finland odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -250 |
| Finland moneyline odds | +190 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -1.5 (-114), Finland +1.5 (–114) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-134), Under 6.5 goals (+105) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Team Canada
Canada showed some fight in Sunday’s loss to the Czechs, but ultimately it was too little too late, and most Canadian observers would still agree the team that played the better overall game ended up victorious, and Czechia deserves a lot of credit.
When Canada has gone out early in this tournament in recent years, it has brought criticism towards the nation’s overall development process as a whole, and that seems foolish to me. Canada is still producing plenty of top-10 picks year in and out, and has more than its share of elite talents at the game’s highest level and top prospects in this tournament.
What seems to be the bigger issue is Canada’s ability to bring together a group that plays like a cohesive team in short order, as is required in this tournament.
Dale Hunter seems to be avoiding criticism more than would be expected given that he was leading a team that had the most talent on paper. Hunter can’t change the fact that top skaters such as Gavin McKenna and Michael Misa had disappointing showings at the tournament.
However, Canada’s team game never looked as fluid and well-rounded as should be expected from a group of Grade “A” junior skaters. Does it really seem likely that 5-6 Canadian defenders are simply much worse prospects than is generally credited? That’s the way it looked in the semi-final, and at some point that has to warrant a look at the overall team systems, as well as the decision to rotate eight defenders in a critical matchup.
I’d imagine zero of Canada’s eight defenders had ever played in an important game with a four-pairing rotation ever before, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a top defender that feels fully in rhythm in such a state.
Betting Team Finland
While it came up a hair short of earning a berth in the gold medal game, it’s fairly easy to argue that Team Finland can be proud of the way it competed in the knockout phase. Every year it feels easy to underrate the Finns in this tournament, and then before you know it, they are grinding their way into tightly contested games with superpowers such as Canada and Sweden despite having fewer top-tier prospects.
As noted above, the factor that seems to be keeping Canada and Finland closer than they should be in recent years at the WJC is the fact that the Finnish Ice Hockey Association seems well adept at putting together a well-organized, structured team as opposed to individuals running around uncertain of their roles.
Canada has the talent to blow the Finns out of the water in this matchup, but it seems reasonable to believe that based on the knockout phase, Finland can hang around in this matchup with a strong performance. Aside from an ugly opening goal in Sunday’s matchup, goaltender Petteri Rimpinen played quite well on Sunday and could offer another avenue for Finland to steal this matchup.
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