The 2026 Daytona 500 is set to open the NASCAR Cup Series with one of the most bet-on races of the year, and online sportsbooks have already posted a tightly packed board of contenders.
In this article, we’ll break down the latest 2026 Daytona 500 odds, highlight favourites and live long shots, and identify where the early value lies before lines move. From superspeedway specialists and past Daytona champions to dark horses with strong drafting partners, you’ll get data-driven picks and betting angles to help you place smarter wagers on “The Great American Race.”
Daytona 500 outright pick – William Byron (+1800)
William Byron to win Daytona 500
William Byron (+1800 odds) is primed to make history with a third straight Daytona 500 win on February 15, 2026, cementing his status as the modern restrictor-plate king.
Byron’s back-to-back victories in 2024-25 showcase unmatched pack-racing mastery—leading 115 laps combined, flawless side-draft control, and elite positioning that dodges the inevitable “Big One” wrecks. No driver since Denny Hamlin (2019-20 sweeps elsewhere) has dominated Daytona like this; his average finish sits at 5.2 over recent 500s, with four top-5s in eight starts.
Hendrick Motorsports’ horsepower edge shines at superspeedways, pairing Byron with crew chief Rudy Fugle’s surgical pit stops and restart dominance. In 2025’s Coke Zero 400, he wheeled from 8th to top-3 contention before chaos; expect similar tempo control here. Chevy alliance depth (Elliott, Larson as pushers) ensures slingshot help without alliances fracturing.
Byron thrives in attrition: calm under pressure, no enemies from clean racing, and stage-point accumulation keeps him upfront. Models project 50-100 laps led; at +1800 value, he’s undervalued versus Hamlin’s fading form or Logano’s crash risk.
Byron survives the draft, inherits the lead post-final caution, and holds off challengers for confetti—three-peating into legend status.
Daytona 500 odds (top 10)
| Driver | Odds |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1200 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| Austin Cindric | +1400 |
| William Byron | +1800 |
| Kyle Larson | +1800 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2200 |
| Christopher Bell | +2200 |
Daytona 500 betting insights
Below are betting insights from BetMGM for the Daytona 500, accurate as of Feb. 12 at noon ET.
Most tickets
- Denny Hamlin (6.9%)
- Kyle Busch (6.3%)
- Ryan Blaney (5.3%)
- William Byron (5.3%)
Most handle
- Denny Hamlin (9.2%)
- Ryan Blaney (7.9%)
- Kyle Busch (7.4%)
Biggest liabilities for sportsbook
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Alex Bowman
Daytona 500 dark horse pick – Austin Dillon (+5000)
Austin Dillon to win Daytona 500
Austin Dillon (+5000 odds) has the tools to pull off a shocking 2026 Daytona 500 victory, leveraging his proven superspeedway pedigree and Richard Childress Racing’s upgrades.
A two-time Daytona winner (2018 500 triumph via infamous “Austin’s Wall” spin move, plus Coke Zero 400 plate victory), Dillon excels in the draft-heavy chaos that defines restrictor-plate racing. He’s notched four top-10s in nine 500 starts, including a 7th in 2025 before late attrition, proving he survives “The Big One” better than flashier stars. His calm positioning—riding the middle/high line, avoiding enemies—lets him inherit leads when favorites wreck out.
RCR’s new Chevrolet aero package enhances drafting cohesion within the Chevy alliance (Hendrick teammates like Byron, Busch provide slingshot pushes). Crew chief Justin Alexander’s pit strategy shines in late cautions, while Dillon’s restart aggression (top-5 average late-race position) sets him up for the final 10-lap shootout.
At +5000, he’s undervalued versus short-term form; historical comps (2018 chaos win from mid-pack) mirror Daytona’s unpredictability. Dillon dodges early wrecks, stacks drafting partners, leads post-final caution, and blocks challengers—delivering confetti for RCR’s first 500 since Earnhardt Sr.