Canada vs. USA was heavily favoured to face off in the Gold Medal Game entering the women’s Olympic hockey tournament, and there’s been no indication whatsoever to expect anything different based on what we have seen so far.
USA has started the tournament with three straight regulation wins and holds a goal differential of 15-1. They swept Canada in the 2025 Rivalry Series, and based on how they have played thus far, it’s no surprise that they remain favoured to win the initial meeting of the tournament between these two powerhouses.
While the US has looked as dominant as expected, Canadian head coach Troy Ryan still has to be happy with the 2-0-0-0 start that his side has gotten off to, having outscored Czechia and Switzerland by a combined margin of 9-1.
Canada may have suffered what would be a massive loss in Monday’s matchup, as star forward Marie-Philip Poulin suffered an injury in the first period and did not return to the game. At the time of writing, her status has not yet been confirmed, but it would be logical to assume Canada will err on the side of caution and rest her in this preliminary round matchup.
My best bet for Olympic women’s hockey Canada vs USA is backing Over 5.5 Goals at +100 (bet365).
Canada vs. USA Best Bet
Over 5.5 goals
This game offers a strong opportunity for both of these two sides to fine-tune their games ahead of what will presumably be the Gold Medal Game matchup against each other. There is some modest incentive to win, given that earning the first seed will offer moderately softer matchups early on in the knockout stage, but it’s mainly going to be more about setting the tone and getting comfortable with what the other is offering.
Canada made Czechia pay for trying to set a physical tone in what was a chippy affair Monday, as their power play looked quite sharp once again. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a similar narrative take place in this matchup, as it seems reasonable to believe competitive nature will still make this a hotly contested game, but I’m not sure either team will be as disciplined as they may be if this was a do-or-die matchup, and the refs also will likely call it quite tight.
There were 34.25 scoring chances per game throughout the four-game rivalry series and an average of 7.75 goals per game. The USA also won the Gold-Medal Game between these sides at the 2025 World Championship 4-3.
USA created a lot of problems in transition with their dynamic attack, and though Canada will certainly attempt to make amends for that, it remains a tall order to suppress Team USA offensively given how the USA program continues to trend.
Canada has had a great start to the tournament on both sides of the puck, but it may be the offensive strengths that are more logical to carry over into this matchup. Its power play has been excellent, and though the transition game hasn’t been entirely convincing, they have had some impressive sequences of attack in the offensive zone.
I’d lean to backing the US if I were to pick a side (at the time of writing) and believe the Americans will likely be a larger favourite by puck-drop, especially if Philip-Poulin is ruled out for Canada.
If this was the Gold Medal Game, I’d pass on backing over 5.5 goals, but it seems logical to expect a bit of a different dynamic on Tuesday, and at +100, there looks to be value in backing this game to get over the total.
Canada vs. USA Odds
| Canada moneyline odds | +115 |
| USA moneyline odds | -143 |
| Puck Line odds | USA -1.5 (+180), Canada +1.5 (-239) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (+100), Under 5.5 (-129) |
Betting Team Canada
In the absolute earliest stages of Monday’s matchup, it looked possible that the game might be mildly competitive, but right after Czechia hit the post, Kristin O’Neill batted one in out front after a shaky rebound by goaltender Julie Pejsova.
From that point on it was mainly one-way traffic, as Canada ultimately outshot Czechia 34-19 in the 5-1 win. It did seem that part of Czechia’s strategy was to potentially set a tone by playing on the edge, particularly once the result of the game seemed inevitable.
Canada has plenty of forwards capable of stepping up to help pick up the offensive slack in Poulin’s absence, though her presence will obviously be difficult to entirely replace. Sarah Fillier and Darryl Watts have both played well so far and are potential options to help replace the production.
Direct one-to-one replacements for Poulin are slightly more difficult given that she is a centre. Sarah Nurse has had an okay start to the tournament with two assists and solid defensive results, but Canada may need her to find a level closer to what we saw in 2022 in order to navigate Poulin’s absence if it stretches into the elimination round.
Betting Team USA
It’s interesting that the USA’s greatest potential edge over Canada on the women’s side may mirror that on the men’s side, in that both American rosters may prove to have a more mobile defensive core that helps drive offence with strong puck movement more effectively.
The difference being that on the women’s side, the offensive cores look more comparable, as the top four point producers in the PWHL all skate on the American roster. Head coach John Wroblewski’s side looks to be picking up where they left off in winning the 2025 World Championships, looking like a cohesive, well-rounded machine.
Canada’s power play has been excellent in the tournament and they have done a great job of creating havoc out front, but it appears reasonable to believe that the US team remains more threatening off of the rush and in transition.
On top of their elite point producers from the PWHL, the USA also has several dynamic skaters currently lighting up in the NCAA, who will presumably be strong professionals in the near future.
Number-one goaltender Aerin Frankel started Monday’s matchup, and at the time of writing it is unclear if Wrobelwski will roll her back-to-back Tuesday, given that the game technically is not that meaningful.
If it’s not Frankel, it will likely be Gwyneth Philips, who also appears to be a very strong option. Philips won was named the playoff MVP in the PWHL last season (Ilana Kloss Award), and holds a .929 save percentage in the PWHL this year, which ranks sixth among qualified starters.
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