Group B in the men’s Olympic hockey tournament is shaping up to be quite interesting, as after Slovakia surprised with a 4-1 win over Finland as sizeable +320 underdogs, Finland responded with a 4-1 win over rival Sweden Friday. Those results add extra intrigue to Saturday’s matchup between Sweden and Slovakia, with the top seed in the group very much up for grabs.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this exciting Olympic hockey matchup, as relevant betting notes for both teams.
Sweden vs. Slovakia Best Bet: Rasmus Dahlin Over 1.5 Total Points +140
Dahlin over 1.5 points
As it turns out, the shortened neutral zone is seemingly changing the most effective ways for teams to generate offence in this tournament and causing some issues for some skaters in specific. At five-on-five, we are seeing teams dump pucks in at a higher rate, which is putting more onus on defenders to effectively make retrievals under pressure.
In Sweden’s matchup Friday, generating quality scoring chances at five-on-five was a concern, particularly prior to the time that score effects took hold in the third period. One of the Swedish defenders who does not appear to be struggling to make adjustments to the altered game, however, has been Dahlin, who’s looked smooth on zone exits and consistently threatening at the other end of the ice.
Those who follow me in the Action Network app may have tailed my pick on Dahlin to lead Sweden in points in the tournament at +900. He’s been exceptional with the NHL‘s Buffalo Sabres this season, and it seemed logical to expect him to fully break out as Sweden’s number-one defender in the tournament, while the top offensive skaters may get a few less minutes than usual.
For whatever reason the Sabres’ power play has consistently struggled in recent years, but it’s never seemed that Dahlin’s work as the quarterback is a reason why. Sweden’s power play has looked quite threatening thus far, and most of the scoring chances have come with Dahlin in line for either a primary or secondary assist.
Based on Dahlin’s play relative to other potential minute-munchers for Sweden, such as Victor Hedman, Rasmus Andersson, and Erik Karlsson, it seems logical to expect he will continue to garner a huge role. Dahlin leads the team with four points in the tournament and easily could have had two points once again Friday if his shot midway through the third period had managed to slide only a few centimetres further.
It seems logical to expect a solid offensive response from Sweden in this matchup, as while the Slovakians have played well relative to their roster, they certainly still offer some weak points. I’m not interested in touching Sweden as a side at -118 to cover -2.5 goals, but a price of +140 for a skater who’s produced well in the tournament while looking quite threatening seems solid.
Sweden vs. Slovakia Odds
| Sweden moneyline odds | -715 |
| Slovakia moneyline odds | +500 |
| Puck Line odds | Sweden -2.5 (-118), Slovakia +2.5 (-106) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-118), Under 5.5 (-106) |
Betting Sweden
Sweden’s matchup with Finland on Friday was interesting, as in many ways it mirrored Finland’s game versus Slovakia, with Finland overtaking the role of their previous opponent. Though Sweden ultimately finished with more scoring chances and shots on target, score effects had much to do with that, and Finland did appear to be the superior side at even strength through two periods, which was quite surprising to me.
It’s well known that Sweden loves to play possession-based hockey. Through two periods they did not find much rhythm, as Finland’s forwards did a good job of getting pucks in deep and pressuring Sweden’s defensive core. It will be interesting to see how Sweden adjusts in this matchup, as it feels as though the tightened neutral zone is creating some different dynamics in this tournament.
That fact wasn’t as noticeable in Sweden’s matchup versus a very weak Italian side, but that likely had much to do with the significant talent disparity.
Sweden has more than enough highly-skilled and intelligent skaters to think it’s reasonable it can make some offensive adjustments on the fly, and though Slovakia has started 2-0-0-0, it still presents a more reasonable matchup for the Swedes to piece together a sharper overall game.
Goaltending was also a concern once again for Sweden in its matchup versus Finland, as a soft goal from Filip Gustavsson got the team on its heels early. It was mildly surprising that the team went back to Gustavsson for Friday’s matchup after a bad showing in the opener, but the team’s thinking was probably that he was their guy entering the tournament, and that it made sense to try and ride out the bad performance in the opener right away.
Now it seems much more reasonable to believe that in this back-to-back spot they will give Jacob Markstrom a shot. Markstrom has had a poor season with the New Jersey Devils, which is certainly a key reason the team was reluctant to move on from Gustavsson for Friday’s matchup, but this spot certainly suggests a change is likely.
Sweden’s top line of William Nylander, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Adrian Kempe has been their most threatening unit and seems to be by a wide margin the most stable combination. Jesper Bratt had a very disappointing performance on Friday, and as a result, the head coach, Sam Hallam, finally gave Filip Forsberg a small look inside the top six later in the game.
It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Forsberg does make an impact at some point in this tournament, though for whatever reason Hallam has not been remotely interested in giving the star winger much playing time. Forsberg made a notable mistake versus Italy, but you’d think, given his status as one of the better wingers in the NHL, that wouldn’t mean acting as a grocery stick on the bench for almost two whole games.
Betting Slovakia
Slovakia enters Saturday’s slate as the team to beat in Group B, at least on paper, as online sportsbooks still price Sweden at -130 to win the group. The logic behind those odds is that Sweden is still a massive favourite to win this game, and if they do, their superior winning margin versus Italy will become noteworthy.
Slovakia will look to continue proving oddsmakers wrong in this matchup after they were given just a 23% chance of beating Finland in the opener.
It’s a short tournament, and things can turn around in a hurry. Slovakia is obviously a team hoping that narrative doesn’t come to fruition, but oddsmakers aren’t going to be swayed by a tiny two-game sample size, as we see with the betting prices on this game. More of the prices have to do with how oddsmakers’ models power-rate a roster and with underlying numbers.
In Slovakia’s case, it feels a little muddy in attempting to evaluate if the team is likely to be a true overachiever or not.
Their level of determination and urgency in the opener versus Finland was clearly quite strong. They did a good job of protecting the most dangerous areas of the ice and avoided making significant mistakes. Still, the opener of a tournament like this is a volatile situation, and Finland did generate 27 scoring chances in the game.
It’s a little difficult how to assess matchups coming versus Italy in this tournament, but if anything, Slovakia’s overall game seemed a little on the pedestrian side Friday. Slovakia outshot them 38-22, but it wasn’t exactly the most dominant showing ever, though on paper the Italians did keep things surprisingly close versus Sweden.
Looking at Slovakia’s performance versus Finland and the talent disparity, it is logical to expect Sweden to dominate possession and outshoot Slovakia significantly in this matchup. Slovakia will need to lean on the same game plan it used to find success in the opener, in looking to avoid making critical mistakes and hoping their smaller output of chances at the other end are of higher quality.
Slovakia’s depth on the back end is a concern, and head coach Vladimir Orszagh only seemingly has three defenders that he really trusts in Martin Fehervary, Simon Nemec, and Erik Cernak, who have unsurprisingly played big minutes in both matchups.
Fehervary is a highly underrated shutdown defender, and it’s no surprise to see that he’s had a solid start to the tournament. Cernak has obviously honed a reputation for being irritating to play against, while Nemec is a strong puck-mover with offensive upside, though a little less effective defensively.
The rest of the core is a big concern, and they are attempting to be sheltered as much as possible. To this point it’s worked out, but the possibility of either Martin Marincin or Peter Ceresnak faltering or the top dogs running out of gas is a concern.
Slovakia deserves some credit for their 2-0-0-0 start, but this matchup may be the one that suggests whether they truly are a scrappy underdog or, more simply, just a group that managed to be more structurally sound than Finland in a one-off.
Goaltender Stanislav Skorvanek stopped 20 of 22 shots faced versus Italy, but Samuel Hlavaj is likely to get the crease in this game after resting on Friday in favour of Skorvanek. Hlavaj was a major reason why Slovakia pulled off the upset versus Finland in stopping 38 of 39 shots faced, a performance that was quite surprising given his .884 save percentage across 26 AHL games this season.
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