Canada has had a rock-solid start to the Olympic men’s hockey tournament, playing to a goal differential of +9 versus a scrappy pair of sides in Czechia and Switzerland. It will look to keep its flawless record intact Sunday playing as gigantic underdogs versus a French side that has lost both group stage games in regulation and holds a -7 goal differential.
France is in a tough spot in this matchup, as a high-powered Canadian side will likely be well incentivized to win this game by a significant margin. Assuming the USA. wins both of its two remaining matchups inside of regulation, the goal differential tiebreaker will come into play to determine who is the highest seed, and that team will then potentially avoid Sweden in the quarterfinals.
While Canada would still be a huge favourite versus Sweden, there’s volatility in any single knockout, and you would obviously prefer to ensure the softest possible matchups.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this Olympic hockey matchup, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Canada vs. France Best Bet: Canada -5.5 -130
Canada puck line -5.5
Dalibor Dvorsky’s goal with just 39 seconds left to play Saturday has shaken up the outlook of this tournament, as it sealed a win in Group B for Slovakia because of their superior goal differential over Sweden and head-to-head win over Finland. It also showed that simply betting on the better team to cover the spread needed for the desired seeding isn’t a guarantee.
With full respect to the idea that -5.5 goals is a huge spread for any competitive hockey game, and that France will not lay down in this matchup, it does seem reasonable to argue that Canada seems likely to win this game by six or more often enough to hold value at -130.
It’s hard to make much of a case for a very thin French side in this matchup. It managed a surprisingly scrappy second period versus Switzerland in its previous game, but has generally been dominated in the other five periods of play, as expected. Switzerland held a 34-10 edge in scoring chances in their 4-0 win over France, while Czechia outshot France 38 to 12.
France would certainly be favoured in a matchup over Italy, but it seems likely that this game will be a large blowout as we saw when Finaland blasted Italy 11-0 on Saturday, particularly if Canada has some significant incentive via goal differential to pour it on.
Canada will presumably dominate shift after shift. The newly formed top unit of Connor McDavid, Macklin Celebrini, and Nathan MacKinnon could completely go off, while the second line of Sidney Crosby, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner may certainly remain effective, but it also seems logical to expect the bottom six to look drastically more effective than it did versus the Swiss, and will likely get some extremely soft matchups at times.
Canada vs. France Odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -40000 |
| France moneyline odds | +3300 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -5.5 (-130), France +5.5 (+110) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-155), Under 6.5 (+130) |
Betting Team Canada
Canada’s otherworldly skill shined through in their 5-1 win over Switzerland, a game that was arguably a fair bit more competitive than the final scoreline suggested. Canada led 28-23 in scoring chances and outshot the opposition 39-25. The quality of chances that Switzerland generated were far higher quality than Czechia’s, as the Swiss generated 12 slot shots, nine inner-slot shots, and some ultra-threatening looks off the rush.
Switzerland’s only goal was of a fairly soft variety, but there is still an strong case that allowing only one goal against was actually a good performance from Logan Thompson in goal. Sidney Crosby and head coach Jon Cooper both echoed postgame that the team needed to clean some things up defensively and in terms of managing the puck, which is not remotely surprising given that Switzerland did create a fair number of legitimate scoring chances, compared to the game before, when most of Czechia’s shots were fairly irrelevant.
Cooper put McDavid, MacKinnon, and Celebrini together for the final shift of the first period and kept them together for the rest of the game. The result was incredible, as you would expect, and the trio created two goals at even strength over the next two periods and will presumably remain together in Sunday’s matchup.
Tom Wilson played well on the top line in the opener and did make a nice play in earning a second assist on Thomas Harley’s goal in the first period. After Wilson was moved off the top line, he clearly lost some rhythm, which was par for the course for most of the jumbled-up bottom six. in the game.
It’s obvious to say the newly formed top line should remain a force the rest of the way, and the Stone, Crosby, and Marner combination also looks to be set and displaying solid chemistry. After that the lines still feel quite unsettled, and it would certainly be nice to see the team sort out the optimal way to configure the bottom six in this matchup.
Brad Marchand is set to return to the lineup and will presumably factor into the third line. I’ve thought Bo Horvat has shown well so far, and it would seem reasonable to argue that if MacKinnon is on the wing, Horvat is worthy of the role centering the third unit.
Thomas Harley has had a fairly disappointing season in Dallas, but playing alongside a more stable defensive partner on a highly organized side has seemingly done wonders for his game, and he’s been extremely steady in this tournament thus far. Harley skated 18:13 in Friday’s matchup after leading the team with 20:35 in the opener and has seemingly been the best left-side defender by a fair margin.
Jordan Binnington will presumably get the start in each of Canada’s remaining matchups, so long as he doesn’t mix in one notably poor start. Thompson was excellent in Friday’s matchup in facing a drastically tougher workload, but given that Binnington was the team’s guy coming into the tournament, that’s obviously not changing after a shutout performance.
Betting France
Italy seems to be in their own tier at the very bottom of the 12 teams competing in this tournament, and France appears to be one notch above that. Though it’s felt as though the team’s skaters have competed admirably in the first two matchups, they have been outshot by 43 over two games and outscored by seven.
France allowed 26 slot shots and 18 inner slot shots versus Switzerland and 26 slot shots and 13 inner slot shots versus Czechia. A -7 goal differential through two games is far from impressive, and there’s certainly a case to be made that they might have allowed more goals against on average based on location, and that may prove especially true now that essentially every shot in this matchup will come off the stick of a high-quality NHL scorer.
France has dropped out of the men’s top division in IIHF, and will not be competing in the World Championship. Alexandre Texier is the lone NHL forward up front, while Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Stephane De La Costa also have NHL experience.
We’ve seen some non-NHL talents show very well thus far in this tournament, but most of France’s roster is compiled of skaters from the lower European leagues, and some have really struggled thus far. The usage on the blue-line has been relatively even among six-skaters, but head coach Yorick Treille clearly is trying to shelter his bottom 3-4 forwards up front, which is a concern entering this matchup.
Antoine Keller will likely get the start in goal, after stopping 39 of 43 shots in the opener versus Switzerland. Keller surprisingly did not dress versus Czechia, but was presumably the number-one option entering the tournament and it’s unlikely that has changed, and there are no reports existing that suggest he is injured. Keller holds an .881 save percentage across four ECHL starts this season.
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