After facing off in the opening matchup of the Olympic men’s hockey tournament, Finland and Slovakia will get reacquainted in the Bronze Medal Game on Saturday.
Slovakia earned a 4-1 win in the previous meeting between these sides, which ultimately was the key to securing the top seed out of Group B. As it was in the first matchup, Finland is a significant favourite, and will look to show some mental toughness in flushing a heartbreaking loss to Canada Friday in order to still secure a medal.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for the Olympic Bronze Medal Game between Finland and Slovakia, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Finland vs. Slovakia best bet: Finland -1.5 (+100)
Hindsight is 20/20, but my frustration over Friday’s losing article pick on the USA to win while allowing less than 1.5 goals was far greater than it is for a normal losing guide. While the USA looks to be a well-oiled machine, Slovakia looked fairly fraudulent, which was my general belief. The pick proved to be a little too cute, as unfortunately the Americans got a little bit loose in the third period of what was a blowout, which had me thinking, “Why on Earth did I not just back the U.S. to cover the spread?”
The first game of a tournament like this is volatile. Rosters are attempting to come together as a team and play well-organized, systematically strong hockey in short order.
Slovakia came out a little sharper than Finland in the tournament opener, capitalizing on some soft breakdowns early on, and then riding an excellent goaltending performance from Samuel Hlavaj to a win. That win, coupled with a win over a very weak Italian side, as well as a goal in the final minute of a 5-3 loss to Sweden, allowed Slovakia to steal Group B due to the tiebreaking procedures.
That provided Slovakia with a soft quarterfinal matchup versus Germany, after a thin German side played its four top stars hefty minutes one day previous. Credit to Slovakia for taking advantage, but it seemed like a team that simply had things break right in the tournament entering the matchup versus the U.S. and got exposed as expected.
Finland, meanwhile, seems to have steadily elevated its game throughout the tournament following the loss to Slovakia. It had a tremendous performance in a 4-1 win over rival Sweden and obviously gave Canada all it could handle Friday. It’s fair to say the Finns went into too much of a shell in the third period versus Canada in attempting to guide a one-goal lead to the finish line, but it was obviously still a drastically more impressive showing than Slovakia put on Friday.
Slovakia has accomplished a lot given the lack of talent on hand. Juraj Slafkovsky has been one of the very best skaters in the tournament, and other NHLers such as Dalibor Dvorsky and Martin Fehervary also elevated their respective games in key roles, while Hlavaj was a rock in goal.
Finland closed at -525 in the first matchup of the tournament between these sides. Slovakia pulled off the shocker, but Finland’s game has trended upwards the rest of the way and it looked roughly as formidable as expected. I’m not sold that Slovakia proved enough for the price for Saturday’s game to come down to -270, and I believe at +100 there is value backing Finland to cover the puck line.
Finland vs. Slovakia Odds
| Finland moneyline odds | -270 |
| Slovakia moneyline odds | +220 |
| Puck Line odds | Finland -1.5 (+100), Slovakia +1.5 (-120) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (+105), Under 5.5 (-125) |
Betting Finland
Our piece on Finland’s semi-final matchup was a slam-dunk, as it gave Canada all it could handle in a tremendous matchup. Finland played to its identity in making high-quality scoring chances hard to come by for a high-powered Canadian side, and though maybe things could have gone differently, they probably will only regret becoming a little too passive for the final 30 minutes of play in simply looking to protect the lead.
From a mental perspective, this could be viewed as a slightly concerning spot for Finland, as players on the roster surely fully believed in the possibility of winning gold, while Slovakia will realistically probably be pleased to have this opportunity. Still, the Finnish program has always been built upon a notably high level of national pride, and the group should have the fortitude to dig in and leave it all out there in an effort to avoid going home entirely empty-handed.
Though Finland may not be entirely built to blow teams out of the water, it should still have enough offensive upside to pull away from Slovakia. Finland was too loose early on in the previous matchup versus the Slovaks and struggled to open them up in a trailing game script, but things seem likely to shake out differently in the rematch.
Since the previous matchup point, the Finns have elevated their level of play, and it seems likely that it can make the adjustments needed to earn a better result here. Slovakia played a sharper team game in the last matchup than Finland to help mask the talent disparity, though it was still not exactly a dominant performance either, given that Finland led 11-5 in shots from the inner slot and outshot Slovakia 40-25.
Finland has far more high-end talent than Slovakia, led by elite talents such as Miro Heiskanen, Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Sebastian Aho. Now that they seem to be playing a well-structured team game, I’m expecting their superior skill level to shine through.
I’m also not expecting Finland to sit back and try to coax a potential lead to the finish line in this matchup the way it did versus Canada. That approach likely was in part due to the head coach, Antti Pennanen, viewing Canada’s high-powered lineup, and Canada obviously deserves some credit for the way it poured it on.
Juuse Saros authored another strong performance on Friday, stopping 36 of 39 shots faced. Saros looked quite sharp following Slovakia’s upset win in the opener, despite not playing overly well at the NHL level this season. Kevin Lankinen could potentially get a surprise start in this matchup, but I’d say the team owes it to Saros to let him try and secure a bronze medal in this back-to-back spot.
Betting Slovakia
As we noted ahead of Slovakia’s eventual 6-2 loss to the USA Friday, it has been a lovable underdog in this tournament and undoubtedly deserves plenty of credit for the way it has competed thus far. I’m counting on the group to show plenty of urgency in this matchup despite Friday’s deflating loss, given that it was a huge underdog simply to win a medal and should rightfully take a ton of pride that it is able to do so.
Sometimes you have to wear the “black hat” as a handicapper though, and as we’ve outlined, it does feel as though Slovakia’s underdog story has come with a fair bit of luck. It ranked eighth in scoring chance share throughout the first four games, and got a lot of credit for taking advantage of Germany in a favourable spot and authoring a sharp performance in the tournament opener.
Slafkovsky has been on another level, and in this specific tournament, has to be viewed as an elite offensive talent. Still, Slovakia’s offensive attack seems quite one-dimensional at this point. Slafkovsky’s line should face tough matchups all night long, and if that unit does not fare overly well at even strength, Finland should be able to keep Slovakia in check barring a parade of penalties.
As we will outline in our upcoming Gold Medal Game piece, Team USA looks to be in incredible form, but the way Slovakia was entirely dismantled is still a concern, and one that has been questioning if perhaps some of its top skaters are running out of gas having been leaned on so heavily in the tournament.
Hlavaj was pulled midway through Friday’s matchup after stopping 19 of 23 shots faced, but the move likely had more to do with preserving the number-one option for this game than a belief that he deserved to be pulled from the game. He’s had an excellent tournament, and will likely be awarded the opportunity to put a bow on it Saturday.
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