NorthStar Bets Weekly NHL Betting Insights (Dec. 12)

It’s another busy week, but between The Puck Portfolio, and Jeff Veillette’s NHL Schedule Breakdown, Canada Sports Betting has hockey bettors covered with daily projections, picks, and analysis. Not to mention, the CSB NHL Projection Model page is refreshed daily with updated projected standings, division odds, and playoff chances. But, you can never be ‘too’ informed, so – in the meantime – enjoy this weekly dose of betting insights from around the NHL.

Home teams did slightly better than expected last week, going 31-27, but home underdogs came back down to earth, winning 43.3% of the time straight-up, after winning more than 52% of the time the week prior. Home favourites went 17-6 in regulation and covered the puckline 46.4% of the time. Here’s what things look like year-to-date:

Good Bets Don’t Last

Last week, we dished about the San Jose Sharks, highlighting how they transformed into a value bet when the betting public, perhaps scarred by some 10-1 and 10-2 losses in November, hesitated to back them. Fast forward, the Sharks have put up an 8-9 record since then, and suddenly bettors are reconsidering their stance – maybe this team isn’t as bad as it seemed. But here’s the thing: San Jose is a bad team. Over the last month, they sit at 31st in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 and 25th in goal share, according to Evolving Hockey.

Heading into Tuesday’s home game against the Jets, the Sharks find themselves at +180 on the moneyline at NorthStar Bets. A quick glance at their odds in previous home games tells a tale of adjustment:

  • Oct. 12 vs. VGK: +216
  • Oct. 14 vs. COL: +262
  • Oct. 17 vs. CAR: +248
  • Oct. 19 vs. BOS: +243
  • Nov. 2 vs. VAN: +201
  • Nov. 4 vs. PIT: +226
  • Nov. 7 vs. PHI: +186
  • Nov. 9 vs. EDM: +293
  • Nov. 14 vs. FLA: +263
  • Nov. 16 vs. STL: +190
  • Nov. 24 vs. MTL: +135
  • Nov. 25 vs. VAN: +236
  • Nov. 27 vs. WSH: +213

It’s a reminder that the good bets don’t last. The Sharks exceeded expectations in the latter part of November, and now, as we find ourselves in the middle of December, the betting market’s perception shifted yet again.

After those brutal back-to-back losses with a combined score of 20-3, savvy bettors seized the opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the team. Now, with the Sharks proving they can play some hockey, the bookmakers and bettors that weren’t ahead of the curve have caught up. Good sports bettors get out in front of trends.

The Maple Leafs’ Overtime Odyssey

The Maple Leafs seem to have a knack for going to overtime, leading the league with 12 extra sessions this season. The Islanders trail closely behind with 10, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Monday’s game went to extra time.

Based on regulation odds, the Maple Leafs should have won about 50% of their games in regulation so far. However, they’ve only managed to seal the deal in regulation seven times, translating to an awful 28% success rate given the odds. To put this in perspective, only Montreal, Seattle, Anaheim, and San Jose have fewer regulation wins than the Leafs.

Toronto shows strength on home ice with an 8-5 record straight-up, but hitting the road introduces some uncertainty, as they stand at 6-6 straight-up. Surprisingly, they’ve been favoured in nearly every away game, except for one. Consequently, betting on the Leafs at home results in a break-even scenario, while putting money on them on the road turns into a losing proposition. Although their road odds have slightly improved recently, wagering on the Leafs, especially when they’re road favourites, and the juice doesn’t look to be worth the squeeze.

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