It’s already Tuesday, and the NHL schedule is about to get busy with 13 games on Thursday, three games on Friday, 12 games on Saturday, and another eight games on Sunday. Check out the NorthStar Bets NHL Schedule Preview for the week of December 4-10 to find out which teams will have the rest advantage and which teams will be playing tired.
Of course, we’ve been factoring the NHL schedule into our handicapping each day on The Puck Portfolio, and that might have something to do with our 15.9% return on investment so far this season. Subscribe to The Puck Portfolio to get daily NHL projections and picks for free on YouTube. We’ve got a big show coming up on Wednesday as we’ll be looking ahead to Thursday’s NHL action.
In the meantime, here’s your weekly dose of betting trends and insights from around the NHL:
Updated NHL Betting Trends
Home teams, more specifically home underdogs, have been eating well since the last time we checked in. Home dogs won 52.4% of the time last week (11-10) and if you know anything about sports betting, you know that that’s how much you have to win in order to break even betting -110 odds, right? Well, the average odds of NHL home dogs over the last week was 44% or +127 American odds.
Home teams won 60.4% of the games last week, which brings them to 53.8% year-to-date, while home favourites jumped to 61.9% on the season after going 21-11 over the last week.
NHL Awards Watch
Senior ESPN writer Greg Wyshynski released his latest NHL Awards Watch article on Monday. This article contains a lot of value for sports bettors because Greg actually polls voters and the information can then be used to find betting value. My big takeaway is that the the Hart Trophy (MVP) market is a lot more interesting because Connor McDavid hasn’t been able to run away with the scoring lead like he has in the past.
McDavid isn’t out of it, by any means, but Nikita Kucherov, Quinn Hughes, and David Pastrnak are currently leading the way in the polls. Cale Makar also has supporters, though, and he is currently tied with Hughes in points. Makar was 20/1 to win the Hart Trophy at NorthStar Bets just a few days ago but he’s now sitting at +1150. However, voters now favour Makar (over Hughes) to win the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenseman and that could be a strong indication of where the Hart Trophy conversation is heading next. You can read the entire ESPN article here.
Suckers and Sharks
When the San Jose Sharks lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 20-3 in early November, the betting market reacted by betting against them in subsequent games. However, since losing 10-1 and 10-2 at home, the Sharks have gone 6-7-1 and all six wins have come in regulation.
A 6-8 record might not sound impressive, but if a bettor had placed a $100 wager on the Sharks to win each of their last 14 games, they’d be up $691. The Sharks probably won’t continue to win at this rate, and our NHL Projection Model sees them finishing in last place 57% of the time, but only a sucker would blindly fade them.
Don’t forget to tune into The Puck Portfolio live at 11:30 A.M. ET on weekdays on the Canada Sports Betting YouTube channel to get free NHL projections and picks to help inform your handicapping and hockey betting.
