The top two teams in the NHL will face-off on March 18 in an excellent matchup for our featured same game parlay that suddenly has plenty of significance in terms of playoff seeding, as the Dallas Stars will head into Colorado to take on the Avalanche.
With a regulation win, the Stars can pull to within one point of the Avalanche, having played one more game. Dallas holds a record of 14-1-1 over the last 16 games, which has made what was once seemingly an impossible task of catching the Avalanche, a legitimate possibility.
After being the clear-cut best team in the NHL by a wide margin early on in the campaign, Colorado is just 14-11-2 since January 1st. The winner of the Central Division will avoid a tough first-round matchup versus the Minnesota Wild, so the Avalanche should be plenty motivated to tighten things up down the stretch.
Our three-leg SGP prices out at +525 at the time of writing and is eligible for a 50% same game parlay boost from our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
- Under 6.5 Total Goals (-135 as a straight)
- Dallas Stars Moneyline (+125 as a straight bet)
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-175 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Stars/Avs SGP
Leg 1: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-135 as a straight)
When these teams last met it was a high-flying 5-4 shootout, but it seems likely that the rematch will feature more of a tight-checking, playoff feel where grade “A” scoring chances are tougher to come by. Both teams are exceptional defensively, and it seems likely that the Stars, in particular, will look to lean on that strength in a tough road matchup.
The losses of Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz hurt the Stars’ offensive upside, but they have helped overcome those absences thanks to some incredible defensive play, which is the area where they have shown the most improvement during their recent heater.
Over the last 15 games they have allowed only 2.50 xGA/60, which is the best mark in the NHL. They have also allowed only 21.79 shots against per 60 in that span.
Jake Oettinger has not typically been asked to handle a tough workload, but he’s been sharp when called upon, with a .901 save percentage and 2.37 GAA across his last 15 appearances.
The Avalanche have taken steps backward defensively throughout the second half of the season and enter off of an ugly 7-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins. They were the best defensive team in the league for the majority of the campaign, though, and it seems that some of their recent struggles could be pinned a level of complacency and potential lack of the type of intensity needed to succeed this time of year.
In a matchup that should feature a playoff-type feel, I’m expecting head coach Jared Bednar’s side to clean things up defensively Wednesday.
Leg 2: Dallas Stars Moneyline (+125 as a straight)
While the Avalanche hold the best roster in the NHL on paper and have plenty of room to grow, the Stars have more consistently offered a well-rounded team game for some time now, and it feels as though the Avalanche are struggling to integrate their newcomers into the lineup.
Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and Esa Lindell have all been playing at the level of full-fledged number-one defenders. The Stars’ ability to ice elite defensive pairings for the vast majority of this matchup should allow them to make life tough for the Avs’ offensive superstars, and help them avoid allowing the type of scoring chances that Oettinger can’t handle.
Over the past 15 games the Stars hold a 60.14% expected goal share, while in the same span the Avalanche hold a 50.53% expected goal share. While there are plenty of intricacies that expected goals do not articulate, the eye test also suggests Dallas has played a more fundamentally strong team game of late.
While it is entirely possible this is a spot where the Avalanche play closer to their potential, because Dallas is a fairly heavy underdog at +125, it seems to be a good time to ride with the group that has been in much better form of late.
Leg 3: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-175 as a straight)
While this angle is contrarian to our belief that the Stars will win with a dominant defensive performance, a trailing game script also makes it more likely that MacKinnon will play huge minutes in attempting to push for offence. Proof of this point lies in the fact that in the Avalanche’s four losses versus the Stars last postseason, MacKinnon averaged 6.5 shots on goal.
Adding this leg moves the price from +280 to +525 and unlocks the 50% parlay boost, and considering this leg does correlate with a Stars win, that adjustment makes this angle worth a look.
If the Stars get up in this game, we should see a frustrated MacKinnon look to drive pucks towards the goal himself and likely play big minutes in the third period of a matchup that should be quite competitive.
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