The Ottawa Senators will continue their furious push for a playoff spot Monday when they take on the New York Rangers in the lone game on the NHL schedule, making it the only option for our featured same game parlay.
The Senators have played to a record of 13-3-2 over the last 18 games but are still four points back of the New York Islanders for the final playoff spot. They do hold two games in hand. Monday’s matchup versus the 30th-placed Rangers is a borderline must-win for the Sens, and we will count on a convincing Senators win to cash the three-leg parlay I’ll outline below.
Our Senators vs Rangers same-game parlay holds a long price of +650 at the time of writing on our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
- Ottawa Senators -1.5 (+135 as a straight bet)
- Igor Shesterkin Over 26.5 Saves (-105 as a straight bet)
- Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG (-130 as a straight bet)
Senators/Rangers SGP
Leg 1: Ottawa Senators -1.5 (+135 as a straight bet)
During their 13-3-2 run, the Senators have scored 3.72 goals per game while allowing only 2.22 goals against per game. They have averaged 30.7 shots on goal per game and allowed only 21.2 shots against per game. They hold a league-leading 62.11% expected goal share in that span and have generated 4.33 xGF/60.
All of those statistics suggest the Senators’ recent process has been among the best in the league and that their dominant results of late are far from a fluke. The only real concern is that their goaltenders have still only combined for an .893 save percentage, which is an improvement relative to the majority of the campaign, but still far from strong.
This looks to be a comparable matchup to the Senators’ last game versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, in which the lowly Leafs were also playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Ottawa outshot the Leafs 44-14 in that game and dominated shift after shift en route to a convincing 5-2 victory.
Since the Olympic break, the Rangers have managed to sneak out a surprisingly respectable record of 6-4-3, but their underlying results have still been quite poor, and their schedule has been soft. They hold a 44.84% expected goal share in 13 games since the break, and have allowed 31.84 shots against per 60.
The Rangers have lost four straight games entering this matchup and hold a -10 goal differential in that span. They hold a shockingly poor 34.29% expected goal share in those matchups, and have allowed 36.01 shots against per 60.
To potentially make matters worse for the Rangers, the majority of their few remaining quality NHL skaters played well past 20 minutes in the first leg of this back-to-back on Sunday versus the Winnipeg Jets.
The Senators should be well-situated to entirely outplay the Rangers in this matchup. It is possible that Shesterkin outplays James Reimer badly enough to make the game competitive, but a price of +135 for Ottawa to cover the puck-line still appears to offer a strong value as a straight bet, and is a good starting point for our parlay.
Leg 2: Igor Shesterkin Over 26.5 Saves (-105 as a straight bet)
In general, there is a negative correlation between a goaltender going over his save prop and his team losing by multiple goals. Game scripts matter, and generally if a team is up several goals, there starts to be somewhat of a pushback from the opposing side.
While I understand those concerns for this parlay, this leg still looks to be a strong option for this specific matchup. Adding Shesterkin to record over 26.5 saves to the other two legs moves the price of this SGP from +310 to +650, which seems to be enough of an adjustment to make this worthwhile.
The Senators held the lead for the vast majority of Saturday’s matchup versus the Leafs, and Joseph Woll still finished with 39 saves and faced 35 shots over the final two periods. In Shesterkin’s most recent start versus the Blue Jackets, he made 31 saves in an eventual 6-3 loss.
Shesterkin holds a +19.6 GSAx rating and a .912 save percentage across 43 appearances this season. It seems realistic to imagine he will have a solid outing and force Ottawa to keep pressing for offence in a matchup where the Senators ultimately still cover the puck line.
Leg 3: Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-130 as a straight bet)
Out of the 30+ shots that the Senators seem likely to generate in this matchup, it seems logical to bank on at least four coming off of the stick of their captain.
Over the last eight games, Tkachuk has averaged 6.6 shot attempts per game. He ranks second in the NHL in shots on goal per 60 this season. While his shot volume has been down a little of late, considering how many chances the Senators seem likely to generate in this matchup as well as Tkachuk’s seasonal averages, a price of -130 looks like a good number in this spot.
When the Senators last faced the Rangers on January 14th at MSG Tkachuk had a goal, three assists, and six shots on goal. I’m expecting him to remain heavily involved offensively in Monday’s matchup, and believe over 3.5 shots on goal is a safe way to close out our parlay.
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