The Ottawa Senators will face off Saturday against the Tampa Bay Lightning in an Atlantic Division showdown that holds plenty of playoff significance. Our two-leg Senators vs. Lightning same game parlay prices out at +950 at the time of writing on our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
Ottawa enters Saturday’s slate sitting one point back of the New York Islanders for the final playoff berth, having played one less game. While its highly impressive recent form suggests it is worthy of a playoff berth, it’s fighting an uphill battle for the time being with both Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson currently sidelined due to injury.
After suffering an overtime loss versus the Seattle Kraken Thursday evening, the Lightning currently sit two points back of the Buffalo Sabres for the division lead. They are just 7-7-2 since the Olympic Break, but are still considered the betting favourites to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final.
- Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight)
- Nikita Kucherov Anytime Goalscorer (+140 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Senators/lightning SGP
Leg 1: Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight)
Our last parlay involving the Blue Jackets vs Canadiens matchup to end in a tie was a bust, but the game went more or less as you would’ve hoped when targeting this long shot, as Mason Marchment whiffed on an empty net that would have knotted the game at two with 30 seconds left to play.
Out of the 13 games on Thursday’s slate five required overtime, including yet another pair of games featuring teams battling for Eastern Conference playoff position. We’ve talked about this angle a lot this season, and I remain particularly high on it down the stretch.
Exactly 25.1% of all games this season have required overtime, which is a convincing mark given that there are obviously a high number of games that are fairly likely to end with a heavy favourite earning a win in regulation and that this bet is still priced at +325.
Ties have been especially common down the stretch in games featuring two Eastern Conference playoff sides, such as we saw in the Senators’ most recent game versus the Pittsburgh Penguins. The sheer number of games involving teams in the playoff chase that have required overtime is a key reason the Eastern Wild Card seeds will likely finish with a historically high mark of close to 100 points.
While the Lightning are fairly heavy favourites in this matchup, it seems likely to expect a desperate Senators side to keep things close with a well-structured road game. Ottawa is in the midst of a 15-3-3 run and holds a league-leading 60.3% expected goal share in that span. It also has allowed just 21.12 shots against per 60 during that stretch, and its dominant defensive results continue to keep it in games on a nightly basis.
The losses of Chabot and Sanderson do hurt Ottawa’s upside tremendously, but Carter Yakemchuk has filled in effectively to this point, and the Senators have collected three-of-four possible points from the matchups in which they have been without both Chabot and Sanderson. Sanderson did travel with the team on their current road trip as well, and there is a slight chance he will play in this game.
The Lightning are just 7-6-2 since the restart, and hold a 52.47% expected goal share in that span. They are still playing at a high level and it’s hard to imagine them being blown out on home ice in this spot, but they appear slightly overvalued to me in being priced at -170 currently.
My expectation is that we will see a matchup where both teams bring a strong effort, and neither side ultimately proves to be an entirely convincing winner. That’s the type of game script we want when targeting the long-shot tie bet that has been good to us this season, and we believe that at +325 it’s certainly worth a look once again in this matchup.
Leg 2: Nikita Kucherov to Score (+140 as a straight)
While it’s far from an ideal matchup for Kucherov to rack up points at the rate we have seen during his ridiculous second half, a price of +140 still looks appealing given how many scoring chances he has been generating of late.
By all means, Kucherov is a pass-first player, which generally does not immediately make one look towards backing him to score a goal. However, he generally only takes fairly smart shots, where there’s a real chance to score a goal, and his chance creation numbers are not really boosted by low-calorie shots.
While a 19% shooting percentage isn’t overly sustainable, it doesn’t surprise me to see that Kucherov has finished chances at a high rate this season because he takes far fewer meaningless shots than the majority of NHL skaters.
Over the last seven games, Kucherov has averaged 8.28 shot attempts, scored six goals and generated 4.15 individual expected goals. While the Senators have been dominant defensively and provide a tough matchup, Tampa Bay’s top line of Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and Anthony Cirelli has been borderline unstoppable, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that line fare well in this matchup while some of the depth units have less productive showings.
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