The Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs will face off Wednesday in an exciting Atlantic Division showdown. With a record of 7-2-1 over the last 10 games, bet365 offers the Red Wings a 76.5% chance of snapping a nine-year playoff drought this season based on their current price of -350.
Related: Check out Canada Sports Betting’s best NHL bets for Jan. 21 with our AI-generated recap.
The Leafs, meanwhile, hold a 44.5% chance of sneaking into the playoffs based on the current betting prices. They have seven games left to play before the Olympics, and the results of those games will likely determine GM Brad Treliving’s approach to the upcoming trade deadline.
Toronto will be looking to respond to a 6-3 loss on Monday evening versus a shorthanded Minnesota Wild squad in this matchup. For as uneven as this season has been for the Maple Leafs, they have been quite strong on home ice with a record of 16-6-5, and have lost two straight games in regulation only once at home.
Our same game parlay comes out to +300 at the time of writing and is eligible for the 30% same-game parlay boost offered by bet365 for Wednesday’s NHL slate.
- Under 6.5 Total Goals
- Bobby McMann Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Alex Debrincat Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Nick’s Red Wings/Maple Leafs SGP
Leg 1: Under 6.5 Total Goals
In each of the previous two seasons, the Red Wings have slowly fallen out of the playoff mix down the stretch after strong starts to the year. This year seems a little different, though, as Detroit has taken steps forward defensively while offering greater roles to key young defenders such as Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka.
The Red Wings rank fifth in expected goal share across the entirety of the season and rank 10th in expected goals against per 60. Over the last 10 games, their offensive chance generation has fallen off (25th in xGF/60), but they have allowed only 3.33 xGA/60. They may not be as much of a low-event team as those numbers indicate, but head coach Todd McLellan’s side still appears to be more defensive-minded than the recent totals suggest, which is no surprise given how McLellan’s sides have played historically.
John Gibson has quietly played at an extremely high level following a poor start to the season. Over his last 15 starts, Gibson has seemingly found his footing with his new side, having played to a .932 save percentage and 1.93 GAA across his last 15 starts.
Over the last 10 games, the Leafs have generated only 2.86 xGF/60, but their incredible power play and a shooting percentage of 13.7% have helped them find success offensively despite not generating that many chances.
I outlined why backing Toronto’s matchup on Saturday versus the Winnipeg Jets was a good bet to go over 5.5 goals, and the game did manage to sneak over its total thanks to a late push from the Leafs.
While I do agree that the Leafs are playing better offensively than the underlying numbers suggest, the important difference in this matchup is that this game is sporting a total of 6.5 compared to 5.5. A full goal change seems to be an overadjustment, given that the Jets actually have been playing a more high-event style than the Red Wings of late, Gibson has been in brilliant form, and neither team is generating all that much at even strength.
When these teams faced off on December 28th, Detroit won 3-2 in overtime, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see these division rivals play a similar type of game Wednesday.
Leg 2: Bobby McMann Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
McMann’ has come on strong as the season has progressed for the Maple Leafs and has undoubtedly earned himself a handsome raise when his contract expires this offseason, whether that deal ultimately ends up being with Toronto or not.
As with a number of Leafs skaters, McMann had an off night on Monday versus the Wild and didn’t have much of an impact across just 12:23 of ice time. Despite that, McMann remained on the top line alongside Max Domi and Auston Matthews at Wednesday’s practice, and it would seem logical to expect a more impactful performance from McMann considering his play over the last two months following a disappointing start to the campaign.
Over the last 15 games, McMann has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal 11 times and averaged 4.06 shot attempts per game in that span. He’s carved out a greater role in playing 17:04 per game during that span, and that’s mainly come skating on what has been an effective top unit.
In 137.9 minutes together, McMann, Matthews, and Domi have scored 4.35 goals per 60 and generated shot attempts at a higher rate than any other Maple Leafs trio to spend 100 minutes together this season.
Leg 3: Alex DeBrincat Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
While I am putting enough faith in Toronto’s defensive upside to bet this game to come in under its high total of 6.5, the Leafs have been allowing a ton of shots against recently despite their strong team results. Toronto has allowed 31.98 shots against per 60 over the last 10 matchups, which is the highest mark in the NHL.
It seems reasonable to back one shooter from the Red Wings to have steady volume in this matchup, and backing DeBrincat to record three shots on target seems to be a strong third leg to help us unlock bet365’s 30% same game parlay boost.
DeBrincat has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in 17 of his last 25 games played and in five straight matchups. He is as pure a goal-scorer as there is in the league, and he’s been getting plenty of chances both at even strength and as the primary shooter on an effective Red Wings power play.
Over the last five games, DeBrincat has been in tremendous form, having racked up four goals and nine points in that span while averaging 8.6 shot attempts per game.
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