The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs will meet for the second time this season Tuesday, after the Panthers knocked off the Leafs in seven games last spring en route to a second consecutive Stanley Cup championship.
The stakes are always high when these NHL rivals meet, but this matchup should hold a little extra bite given the importance of the two points at stake looking at the Eastern Conference standings. For as bad as things have been in Toronto at times this season, it could still draw even with Florida with a regulation win in this matchup.
The Leafs did extract a small measure of revenge in the previous matchup between these sides this season, as they earned a 4-1 win over the Panthers on December 2nd, led by a strong performance in goal from Joseph Woll.
This seems like a good time to bank on the Panthers earning two points versus a shorthanded Leafs side which they have tormented in recent years, and I’m also counting on last year’s Conn Smythe winner, Sam Bennett, to hit the scoresheet, and an in-form Auston Matthews to record four shots on target.
Our parlay comes out to +440, and is eligible for bet365‘s 30% same game parlay boost.
- Florida Panthers Moneyline
- Sam Bennett Over 0.5 Points
- Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Nick’s Panthers vs. Maple Leafs SGP
Leg 1—Florida Panthers Moneyline
The Panthers responded to an ugly performance in the Winter Classic with a trademark 2-1 victory on home ice over the Colorado Avalanche, handing the Avs just their third regulation loss of the season. Winter Classic aside, head coach Paul Maurice’s side has clicked into a higher gear over the last month, playing to a record of 10-5-2 since the start of December.
There have been some positives of late for the Leafs, as the power play has found much greater success since relieving Marc Savard of his duties. Their zone entries have been much cleaner, and getting away from what had become a stagnant 1-3-1 look has been a success. Auston Matthews has also looked like his former self of late, which is critical for the team’s success.
Still, there are meaningful concerns regarding the Leafs roster even if we have seen some positive storylines developing of late. Morgan Rielly continues to be exposed on the defensive side of things, and the Leafs don’t have a lot of options in terms of attempting to offer him more sheltered minutes.
Brandon Carlo will return to the lineup in Tuesday’s matchup which is noteworthy; however, Jake McCabe has been the team’s best shutdown defender and was injured in the team’s previous matchup. Carlo and Rielly have played to a 47.3% expected goal share this season and been outscored 12-8, so it might be a bit of a reach to say that tonight’s defensive pairings are an improved compared to when McCabe was healthy.
While Matthews’ recent run of dominance coupled with the Leafs’ improved power play success of late has helped the team tread water in William Nylander’s absence, Nylander is obviously still a huge loss and has accounted for a lot of the team’s production this season.
John Tavares has also slowed down significantly of late, and it feels like the Leafs’ offensive options are fairly limited entering this difficult matchup.
Leg 2—Sam Bennett Over 0.5 Points
This should be the type of matchup to suit the eye of Ontario native Sam Bennett, who’s fresh off being snubbed from the Canadian Olympic roster despite winning the Conn Smythe Trophy last season and recording 19 points in 17 games since December 1st.
Bennett also enters this matchup in the midst of a 10-game point streak and has found success playing alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Brad Marchand on what has been a tremendously effective unit. In 189.8 minutes together this season, the trio has generated 3.35 xGF/60, and scored 3.79 goals per 60.
You could spice it up and add Marchand to also record a point, which moves our parlay to +550, but I feel most confident in backing Bennett to extend his points streak in what could be a hard-fought playoff-type matchup.
Leg 3—Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
While I don’t know that it will be enough to drag the Leafs into a playoff spot when it is all said and done, Matthews has been in tremendous form following the holiday break, as he’s put up six goals and 10 points across four games played.
It’s an obvious point to make given the level of production, but Matthews’s game has looked entirely different of late. He’s powered pucks into dangerous areas with his hefty frame more often, is getting off high-velocity mid-range shots, and altogether looked more like a skater that once won the Hart Trophy.
Backing him to score as opposed to record 3.5 shots is an option, which would boost our parlay to +600, given the negative correlation of Florida requiring more goals to win.
I’m happy to stick with Matthews simply to record more than three shots on goal, however, as he’s had 25 shots on goal from 38 attempts over the last four games and looked drastically more eager to get off shots from all areas of the ice compared to earlier in the year, when his various nagging injuries were potentially hampering his abilities.
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