The final Battle of Alberta of the season will take place Wednesday evening, and the Calgary Flames will have situational edges in playing on home ice versus an Edmonton Oilers side that suffered a 5-2 loss Tuesday evening versus the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Flames have taken two of the first three matchups between these bitter rivals this season, including a 3-2 win on home ice on December 27th. While the vast majority of Calgary’s fanbase has been cheering for losses for some time now, that won’t be the case Wednesday, in a game most Flames supporters would agree is the most important matchup left this season.
It seems reasonable to believe that the Flames can generate some offence on home ice in this spot versus an Oilers side still looking fairly unconvincing defensively and receiving fairly modest play in goal, which should force the Oilers’ dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to be productive in order for the team to find success in this high-profile matchup.
Our NHL same-game parlay prices out at +750 prior to bet365‘s 30% same game parlay boost, which is available to the majority of users.
- Matt Coronato Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+125)
- Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal-Scorer (+120)
- Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140)
Nick’s Oilers vs. Flames SGP
Leg 1: Matt Coronato Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Coronato was included in Monday’s same game parlay on Calgary’s matchup with Toronto, and after he managed seven shots on target from 13 attempts in that game, it seems pretty easy to be interested in going back to the well.
Time and time again we see random skaters go on stretches with abnormal shot volume over a small sample size. There is obviously some randomness to shot generation given the fast-paced, bounce-driven game that is NHL hockey.
Undoubtedly, Coronato will not continue to get quite as many opportunities as he has recently moving forward, but he is the best goal-scorer on the Flames roster currently, and is a skater that should always be geared towards opting to shoot rather than distribute, which makes me believe in his sustainability as a volume shooter.
Coronato has recorded 22 shots on goal over the last six games and averaged 7.16 shot attempts per game in that span. The Oilers have allowed 27.43 shots against per game over their last eight matchups and present as a fairly neutral target for Coronato in this matchup given that they are playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
Given the long price of +125 as a straight, backing Coronato to record over 2.5 shots on goal in Wednesday’s matchup presents as a good opportunity to ride with his recent volume while skating on the top line and top power play.
Leg 2: Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal-Scorer
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have thrived versus the Flames historically, and both seem to elevate their games playing in this hotly-contested rivalry. Draisaitl has tallied 69 points in 51 regular-season games versus the Flames, and has been effective this year versus Calgary with four goals and six points in the first three matchups.
The Flames have allowed 3.73 xGA/60 over the last 10 matchups, and have not looked overly convincing defensively. They will likely offer a greater level of urgency in this matchup, but it’s still a tall ask for a team with a distinct lack of talent to keep Draisaitl and a high-flying Oilers attack fully in check.
If this game is competitive, expect Draisaitl and McDavid to play huge minutes. McDavid skated 26:39 in the Oilers’ 3-2 loss to Calgary on December 27th, while Draisaitl played 24:23. If it’s not competitive, it will likely be because the Draisaitl and McDavid broke through with some offence early on.
Either way, it seems reasonable to believe the two will be productive in this matchup following a quiet evening on Tuesday versus the Toronto Maple Leafs.
And though it is fairly minor, it does seem favourable for Draisaitl to score now that Kasperi Kapanen is back playing on the second line. Draisaitl, Kapanen, and Vasily Podkolzin have scored 4.75 goals per 60 this season across 113.6 minutes of play, and have formed a more effective line than the majority of other combinations Draisaitl has skated on this season, aside from when Knoblauch decides to load Draisaitl up with McDavid and Zach Hyman, which we are obviously fine with if need be.
Draisaitl has put up seven goals and 21 points over the last 12 games, and a price of +120 for him to score when he’s seemingly trending back toward top form looks quite reasonable, especially given the way he has produced versus Calgary historically.
Leg 3: Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Bouchard let us down last night, as backing him to record over 2.5 shots on goal was one of the losing legs from what was ultimately a highly inaccurate parlay. Bouchard was priced at -180 to record three shots in Tuesday’s matchup, which I actually believed was still a decent parlay leg, and now he’s down to -140 to record three shots in this matchup.
That seems to be too significant of an adjustment from oddsmakers, and I want to go back to the well with this play as a result. On what was a quieter night than we have typically seen from Bouchard recently, he still had five attempts and two shots on goal.
Over the last 10 games, Bouchard has averaged 4.2 shots per game and 7.5 attempts per game. He routinely spends plenty of time skating alongside the Oilers’ top six in the offensive zone and is obviously never afraid to let his heavy one-timer go. He’s averaged 24:47 of time-on-ice over the last 10 games, and in his final matchup before a lengthy Olympic layoff, I’d expect similar usage at worst.
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