The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars will face-off on March 12, giving us the perfect opportunity to craft an NHL same game parlay for this exciting Western Conference showdown between two elite teams. There’s still an outside chance that these teams could face off in the Western Conference Final for a third consecutive season, a possibility that has looked more logical given Edmonton’s last two performances.
The Oilers beat the Colorado Avalanche in regulation on Tuesday, after besting the Vegas Golden Knights in regulation on Sunday. It’s been arguably their most impressive two-game stretch of the season, and given life to the narrative that Edmonton is once again preparing to elevate its game come the postseason.
Despite playing without two superstars, Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz, the Stars are 6-0-1 since the Olympic break, and arguably look to be the second best team in the NHL.
Thursday’s SGP prices out at +1700 at the time of writing, and will follow a similar script as the longest odds parlay we have hit this season, which also came in at +1700. The parlay is also eligible for our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365‘s 25% same game parlay boost for Thursday’s NHL slate.
- Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight bet)
- Wyatt Johnston to Score (+140 as a straight bet)
- Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (+100 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Oilers vs. Stars SGP
Leg 1: Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight bet)
Those who regularly follow our work and or bets tracked to the Action Network app, will know that we’re quite high on betting on regulation ties at long prices this season, and it’s been an area that we have found success. Exactly 25.7% of all games this season have required overtime, which has made backing ties with prices generally north of +320 an effective strategy.
The long betting prices to back games requiring overtime become especially interesting given the fact that there does seem to be a logical process to figuring out which games are likely to require overtime, and obviously 25.7% becomes an even more appealing mark when eliminating all of the logical blowouts from the sample.
The Oilers seem to be trending in the right direction of late. Though Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson are not household names, they have both fared well defensively while playing the majority of their minutes versus elite talents this season, which should prove to be very useful for Edmonton.
Backing Oilers games to end in a tie are always particularly enticing given that if they do end up trailing in the third period, no team is more difficult to keep at bay, as once McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard are coming over the boards every other shift while teams are generally in a defensive shell, Edmonton becomes a complete powerhouse.
While Edmonton does seem to be catching its stride, the Stars are 20-7-4 on home ice this season and should be well-motivated to test themselves in this matchup versus the team that has ended their last two playoff runs.
I’m expecting this to be a well-played, closely-fought matchup that features close scorelines throughout the majority of the game, which would keep the regulation tie in play at a long price of +320.
Leg 2: Wyatt Johnston to Score (+140 as a straight bet)
Something like a 3-3 tie seems quite reasonable in this spot, and it seems logical to add some player props from each side to round out our long-shot parlay. Backing Johnston to score made the cut for Thursday’s anytime goal-scorer parlay guide, and we’re happy to double down on the red-hot centre in this matchup.
Johnston’s importance to the Stars is currently heightened with Rantanen and Hintz both injured. He has elevated his game in impressive fashion to help cover those absences, as since the restart, Johnston has put up five goals and nine points over the last seven games while averaging 20:34 of time-on-ice.
Johnston is now tied with Jason Robertson for the team lead with 34 goals. He put up 33 goals last season, and continues to show strong development as he trends towards his true prime at age 22.
In seven games since the Olympic break, Johnston has averaged 0.67 individual expected goals per game. He’s got ultra-fast hands and a quick release, and those strengths have been put to good use of late given the amount of chances he has generated from dangerous locations.
Even without Rantanen and Hintz, the Stars’ top power play looks to be a handful, while Johnston has fared quite well playing alongside Robertson and Mavrik Bourque on the top line of late.
Leg 3: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Total Points (+100 as a straight bet)
Though Edmonton’s game seems to be trending in the right direction, it’s hard to imagine they will limit the Stars to less than three goals in this spot, and McDavid will once again be asked to help drag the team to success. There does not seem to be much reason to overthink things and avoid adding McDavid to record at least two points from this matchup, particularly given that we are counting on Edmonton to generate enough offence to get this game to overtime.
McDavid’s last four games have come against four high quality defensive sides, the Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators, and yet he’s still put up seven points and recorded over 1.5 points three times.
Over the last 38 games, McDavid has put up 74 points, and even versus a tough opponent a price of +100 for him to record two points looks to be a reasonable bet, particularly given how this bet works with the rest of our parlay where we are counting on a game in which Johnston scores heading to overtime.
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