The Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs will meet for the first time this NHL season Saturday, in what promises to be a very exciting all-Canadian matchup. Newly acquired goaltender Tristan Jarry will likely make his first start of the season for the Oilers, while the Maple Leafs will be looking to respond from a disappointing 3-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks.
Both sides should be at their best in this high-profile nationally broadcast game, and it doesn’t seem likely that either side will pull away on the scoreboard. At +450, there looks to be some value with our simple same game parlay that consists of two legs on bet365 and revolves around the idea of an evenly contested matchup.
- Regulation Tie (+320 straight bet odds)
- Under 7.5 Goals (-275 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Oilers/Maple Leafs SGP
Leg 1—Regulation Tie (+320 straight bet odds)
We’ve talked a fair bit in my work this season about the emerging trend of betting regulation ties in a season where close to 27% of all games have required overtime. It’s far from an exact science, but in general, it’s an angle worth leaning into in matchups where it’s hard to see either side generating much separation on the scoreboard, leaving the tie in play at long prices.
The implied probability of this game reaching overtime based on a price of +320 is 23.8%. At that price, blindly backing all NHL games this season to reach overtime would have been slightly profitable, which is a good starting point.
Six of Toronto’s last 13 games played have gone to overtime. While it’s unlikely that its matchups will continue to require overtime at such a high rate, it does seem that the tactics employed by head coach Craig Berube’s Maple Leafs side do suggest it will go to 3-on-3 at a greater rate than other teams.
The Leafs haven’t blown many teams out of the water this season and have generally looked to avoid critical mistakes in the defensive zone while not being all that aggressive on the front foot. Their power play has been highly ineffective this season, and there is a lack of offensive upside among the team’s bottom two lines.
Over the last 10 games, the Leafs have started to clean things up to some extent, as they have allowed 3.39 xGA/60 and hold a 48.83% expected goal share. Berube’s defensive systems are not designed to limit opponents’ suppression but revolve around preventing grade “A” chances. The Leafs have found a better balance recently, as they have been holding more of the overall run of play while doing a better job of preventing the true defensive breakdowns.
Dennis Hildeby has been fantastic in goal for the Leafs as well, with a +11.0 GSAx rating and .933 save percentage in 10 appearances this season.
It seems unlikely to me that the Leafs will ever blow an Edmonton side that seems to be finding its footing out of the water in this matchup, but they’ve looked more like the team we saw last season of late and should be capable of hanging around with what should be a spirited performance in this matchup.
From Edmonton’s perspective, things are also certainly on the up-and-up, as it has played to a record of 4-1-1 over the last six games and allowed a more respectable average of 1.83 goals against per game in that span. It would seem reasonable to believe the Oilers will be desperate to build on their recent defensive upswing of late in what will likely be Tristan Jarry’s first start with the team.
While former goaltender Stuart Skinner has outperformed Jarry over the last three seasons, Jarry has been considerably sharper this year with a +9.8 GSAx rating and .909 save percentage in 14 appearances.
It seems unlikely that the Oilers will allow this game to get too far out of reach, and we saw earlier in the week during their matchup versus the Buffalo Sabres how threatening they can be when they get on the attack late in games and start rolling Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and the rest of their top pieces over the boards shift after shift.
This looks like a good spot to ride with the regulation tie trend at +320, as I believe the majority of game scripts will feature close scorelines, and I also like the Oilers’ chances of digging out of an early hole if needed versus a Toronto side that tends to sag when awarded a lead.
Leg 2—Under 7.5 Goals (-275 straight bet odds)
Adding in our second leg might look a little fishy, but considering my belief that this game will be reasonably tight-checking, adding this leg to move the price from +320 for a tie to +450 seems reasonable, as I’m low on the chances that this matchup will head to overtime 4-4 or 5-5.
As noted, at their best, Berube’s side does a good job of limiting true defensive breakdowns, which we have seen more commonly of late in wins over the Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers. Still, the Leafs have generally not blown teams out of the water this season, and when they have, it’s generally been due to a clinical finishing performance and not because they have entirely dominated play.
The Oilers are not without their defensive warts, but as we alluded to earlier on in the piece, they have cleaned things up defensively of late. You’d have to think now that they finally pulled the trigger and brought in a new goaltender, Edmonton will place strong focus on a well-organized defensive performance in this matchup, and it has looked more capable defensively of late.