Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Friday’s five-game slate.
Best bet—Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane 1+ Point Each: +125
DeBrincat/Kane points parlay
The Detroit Red Wings are in a great spot Friday, as they will host the San Jose Sharks after three days off, while the Sharks will be playing back-to-back and are likely to start Yaroslav Askarov.
In Askarov’s last 10 starts, he has played to a 4.37 GAA and an .867 save percentage. The Sharks have allowed 3.54 goals against per game this season, which is the third-worst mark in the league. The Wings have been dominant on home ice this season in playing to a record of 16-8-1.
Online sportsbooks are obviously aware that this is a good spot for the Wings, but I actually believe they still deserve to be larger favourites than the current price of -180, and am eager to back some of their top skaters in the player prop market.
Head coach Todd McLellan has adjusted his offensive units and power play units of late, with the most notable change coming in James Van Riemsdyk’s addition to the top line alongside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and overtaking Patrick Kane’s spot on the top power play.
Stacking Larkin and JVR each to record a point at +190 is a solid option considering that it is now fully correlated, and by no means would I disagree with anybody taking that look in this matchup.
But backing Kane and DeBrincat each to record a point at +125 is still my favourite look from this matchup even with Kane coming off of the top power-play unit. We’ve outlined this stack a few times this season and it has been fairly good to us, and in far less ideal matchups, it’s still been in the same price range.
So while Kane is off the top unit, I’m happy to take the +125 based on how well Kane, DeBrincat, and Andrew Copp have played at even strength. In a hefty sample size of 191.8 minutes of even-strength play, the trio has scored 5.63 goals per 60 and outscored opponents 18-2.
In those minutes, they have finished scoring chances at an absurdly high rate and are due for some regression. However, the eye test tells us that Kane and DeBrincat are doing an excellent job of generating the type of chances that are underrated by expected goals data. They do a great job of creating chances that force east-west movement from opposing goaltenders, and those are the looks that models struggle to grade out accurately.
Out of the last 25 games in which DeBrincat and Kane have both been in the lineup, they have both recorded a point in the same matchup 13 times. That’s a very solid hit rate for a prop priced at +125, and as noted, this sets up as a much better than average spot for the dynamic duo to do some damage offensively.
Best bet—Jimmy Snuggerud Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +160
Snuggerud over 2.5 shots on goal
With Robert Thomas sidelined, Snuggerud is currently holding down a spot on the St. Louis Blues’ top line, as well as on the team’s top power-play unit. Based on his career numbers, it is logical to expect some regression upon his recent shot volume, but a price of +160 still looks too long to pass up considering his current roles and recent volume.
Over the last four games, Snuggerud has attempted 33 shots and managed 18 on target. He’s played an average of 17:34 in those matchups, which is the second most of any Blues forward. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Snuggerud play even more minutes in this matchup with Thomas sidelined if it is a less favourable game script than we saw on Tuesday in what was the team’s first game without Thomas.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are an elite defensive team, and this matchup is far from ideal for Snuggerud. Given that he’s in a shooter’s role on the top power-play unit and his recent output of attempts on target, we can live with the matchup given that we are getting a price of +160 for three shots on target.
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